• FAO: World food prices fell for fourth straight month in December
• WFP chief urges urgent global action to avert man-made famines

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has explained the reason for a projected spike in the December 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The Statistician General of the Federation and Chief Executive Officer of the NBS, Adeyemi Adeniran, at a virtual stakeholder engagement organised by the NBS in collaboration with the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) yesterday, explained that the projected December spike stems from the rebasing of the CPI, which adopted 2024 as the new base year after a 15-year gap from the previous 2009 base year.

There are strong expectations in some quarters that the December 2025 inflation figure, due for release on January 15, 2026, could record an artificial spike arising from base effects associated with the arithmetic computation of the inflation rate.

Although there is an argument that the spike does not reflect a deterioration in underlying structural or economic conditions and is a consequence of the computational methodology, these expectations, if not well understood, risk heightening uncertainty, weakening confidence in official statistics, and complicating policy and business decision-making.

He explained that the expected spike in inflation is driven by technical base effects linked to the recent rebasing of the inflation series rather than changes in economic fundamentals.

The NBS boss emphasised that base effects are a common feature of statistical practice, particularly in index-based measurements. According to him, “Following the rebasing exercise and the methodology adopted for December 2025, a significant artificial spike in the inflation rate is expected, as some analysts have already projected.

“This spike arises from the base effect, with December 2024 equated to 100 following the rebasing.” He said that base effects are common in statistical practice, particularly when comparing data across periods with unusually high or low prices, insisting that they are neither unexpected nor unusual.

“However, when such effects occur, especially when they are artificial and arithmetic rather than reflective of structural changes in the economy, it is essential to clearly communicate and explain them to users,” he said. Adeniran said transparency and accountability guided the Bureau’s decision to address the issue proactively.

“This is why we convened this meeting to inform our critical stakeholders and users of our data,” he said. Chief Executive Officer of the NESG, Dr Tayo Aduloju, in his opening remarks, noted the growing importance of credible inflation data as Nigeria transitions from economic stabilisation to consolidation.

He said that as the economy shifts from stabilisation reforms to consolidation reforms, the role of official statistics, especially the CPI, becomes not less important but very, very crucial.

He said that preliminary assessments suggest inflation figures could record temporary technical spikes, stressing that such outcomes should be carefully interpreted.

“During periods of acute instability, headline inflation serves as an alarm bell,” he said, adding, “But as we move from managing crisis to managing growth, CPI statistics must help us understand inflation dynamics properly, not just react mechanically to headlines.”

Aduloju warned that misleading inflation signals during the consolidation phase could undermine hard-won gains.

“In this phase of macroeconomic transition, policy errors can be very costly,” he said. “Credible CPI statistics anchor policy coherence, guide monetary policy calibration, inform fiscal planning, shape wage negotiations, and influence investment decisions.”

In his presentation, the Director of Price Statistics at the NBS, Dr Ayo Anthony, detailed the methodological challenges created by the rebasing exercise and the steps taken to resolve them.

“The last CPI rebasing was done in 2009, and ideally this exercise should be carried out every five years,” Anthony said. “Because of this 15-year gap, consumption patterns changed significantly, leading to the introduction of over 400 new products into the CPI basket and the removal of more than 200 items.”

He explained that linking the new CPI series — with 934 products and a 13-division COICOP classification — to the old series created unavoidable statistical complications.

“To compute year-on-year inflation, we had to link the rebased CPI to the old series,” he said. “Using December 2024 equal to 100 allowed that linkage, but it also introduced the base effect we are now seeing.” Anthony warned that without adjustment, the December 2025 inflation figure could appear significantly inflated.

“For transparency and accountability, we are engaging stakeholders to explain the statistical solution, which aligns with global best practice. Projections show that without adjustment, December year-on-year inflation could appear excessively high due solely to arithmetic base effects, rather than underlying economic conditions.”

He said, “To address this, the NBS will apply a normalisation process, as provided for in the CPI Manual 2020 (Chapter 9, Section 9.125), referred to as maximisation of the index reference period. Where a single-month reference period proves unsuitable, the manual recommends using a three-month or 12-month average.

“Accordingly, instead of December 2024 equalling 100, the average CPI from January to December 2024 will equal 100. “This adjustment removes the artificial base effect and presents a more accurate picture of inflation dynamics. While this adjustment affects published figures for January to December 2025, the impact is not significant and will be clearly communicated to stakeholders.”

He added that while the adjustment affects inflation figures from January to December 2025, the impact on previously published data is minimal and will be clearly disclosed.

“We are not hiding anything. For transparency, we will still make reference to the artificial spike in our reports,” Anthony said. He emphasised that the decision was not made in isolation, stating that technical partners, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), were consulted to arrive at the decision.

Obi warns rising poverty poses threat to Nigeria’s survival
THIS came as former presidential candidate Peter Obi warned that Nigeria’s worsening poverty crisis now poses a “blatant threat” to the country’s future survival.

In a statement released yesterday, Obi criticised what he described as the political class’s preoccupation with “political manoeuvring” while millions of Nigerians slide deeper into extreme hardship.

Citing recent economic data, he said Nigeria’s poverty rate is projected to rise to 62 per cent this year, with about 141 million people expected to be affected.

Obi referred to the Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 report, noting that the number of Nigerians living in poverty has increased from 81 million in 2019 to a projected 141 million in 2026, a situation he described as a national emergency beyond party politics.

“A harsh truth confronts our nation,” he said. “When 62 per cent of your population is ensnared in poverty, it is not just a national failure; it is a clear danger to our collective future. We cannot continue to share political posts and vie for party control while the foundation of our society crumbles.”

Reiterating his long-held economic position, Obi criticised the fiscal approach of the administration of Bola Tinubu, arguing that the government was attempting to “tax its way out of poverty”. He insisted that sustainable prosperity could only be achieved through production rather than increased taxation on an already struggling population.

Obi said that despite an estimated N200 trillion in government revenue between 2023 and 2025, there had been no significant improvement in healthcare, education or infrastructure. He contrasted Nigeria’s situation with that of India and Indonesia, which he said had reduced poverty rates to 5.3 per cent and 8 per cent respectively through sustained investment in human capital.

Obi also weighed in on recent controversy over “digital governance”, referencing public backlash against the use of AI-enhanced images by the Presidency, and argued that Nigerians needed “competence, compassion, and character” rather than “filtered optics”. He called for a national consensus on structural reforms, particularly in agriculture, logistics and large-scale job creation.

“A New Nigeria is possible,” Obi said, “but only if we prioritise the welfare of the people over the ambitions of the few.”
FAO: World food prices fall for fourth straight month in December

ALSO, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has said that world food prices fell for a fourth consecutive month in December, driven largely by declines in dairy, meat and vegetable oil prices.

In its latest report, the FAO said the FAO Food Price Index, which tracks a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 124.3 points in December, down from 125.1 points in November and 2.3 per cent lower than a year earlier. The December reading marked the lowest average level since January 2025.

For the whole of 2025, the index averaged 127.2 points, representing an increase of 4.3 per cent compared with 2024, as higher global prices for vegetable oils and dairy products more than offset declines in cereal and sugar prices.

The dairy price index fell by 4.4 per cent in December, reflecting a sharp drop in butter prices following increased cream availability in Europe. Despite the monthly decline, dairy prices for 2025 as a whole averaged 13.2 per cent higher than in 2024, supported by strong import demand and limited exportable supplies earlier in the year.

Meat prices declined by 1.3 per cent in December, led by falls in bovine and poultry prices. However, the full-year meat price index remained 5.1 per cent above its 2024 level, underpinned by strong global demand as well as uncertainty linked to animal diseases and geopolitical tensions, the FAO said.

Vegetable oil prices eased by 0.2 per cent in December to a six-month low, as weaker quotations for soy, rapeseed and sunflower oils offset gains in palm oil prices. Over the full year, the vegetable oil index averaged 17.1 per cent higher than in 2024, reaching a three-year high amid tight global supplies.

The FAO Cereal Price Index rose by 1.7 per cent in December, with wheat prices supported by renewed concerns over export flows from the Black Sea region, while maize prices were buoyed by strong ethanol production in Brazil and the United States.

Despite the December increase, cereal prices for 2025 as a whole averaged 4.9 per cent below their 2024 level, marking the third consecutive annual decline and the lowest annual average since 2020.

Sugar prices rose by 2.4 per cent in December after three consecutive monthly declines, largely due to lower production in southern regions of Brazil. However, the sugar price index for 2025 fell to a five-year low, down 17 per cent from 2024, as global supplies remained ample.

WFP chief urges urgent global action to avert man-made famines
IN a related development, the head of the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) urged world leaders to take urgent action to prevent man-made famines, warning that global hunger has reached alarming levels.

In a statement released yesterday, the executive director of the World Food Programme (WFP), Cindy McCain, said the world was already facing the risk of a deepening hunger crisis barely weeks into the new year.

According to the WFP’s 2026 Global Outlook, about 318 million people worldwide are facing crisis levels of hunger or worse, with hundreds of thousands already experiencing famine-like conditions. The agency’s early warning systems identified violent conflict, extreme weather and economic downturns as the main drivers of worsening food insecurity.

“Barely two weeks into the new year, the world is already confronting the risk of a dangerous and deepening global hunger crisis,” McCain said. “WFP’s resolve remains unshaken. We will seize every opportunity to rally the support and resources needed to reach those who depend on us for their survival.”

McCain is expected to outline the WFP’s strategic priorities for 2026 at a meeting at the organisation’s headquarters in Rome. These include broadening the agency’s funding base, deploying new technologies and ensuring that frontline staff can operate safely and effectively.

She is also expected to reaffirm the importance of the WFP’s four-year Strategic Plan, which was recently approved by consensus by the agency’s Executive Board.

“WFP has proven time and again that early, strategic and innovative solutions can halt famine, stabilise communities, address the drivers of migration and enable families to recover,” she said.

However, the agency said it currently expects funding to reach just under half of the $13 billion required to assist about 110 million of the world’s most vulnerable people. It also warned that increasingly complex and dangerous operating environments were making humanitarian work more difficult and riskier.

“WFP can’t end hunger on its own,” McCain said. “I call on world leaders to step in earlier during humanitarian crises, rid our world of man-made famines, and, most importantly, end these devastating conflicts which drive hunger and desperation.”