Oil prices inch higher as U.S., Iran disagree over ceasefire proposal
Nigeria imported an estimated 1.8 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) in the first quarter of 2026, as improved foreign exchange stability and easing global spot prices have begun to soften landing costs.

Data obtained from the Nigerian Midstream Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) on supply trends show that in January 2026, imports stood at 24.8 million litres per day, translating to 798.8 million litres for the month.

However, this figure dropped sharply in February to just 3.0 million litres per day, equivalent to 84 million litres, before recovering slightly to 5.9 million litres per day or 182.9 million litres in March.

The NMDPRA had attributed the February collapse in imports to a broader supply contraction, noting that the decline triggered a 25.4 million litres per day drop in total PMS supply during the month. This pushed overall supply down to 39.5 million litres per day, well below the 52 million litres per day average benchmark.

The sharp reduction in imports came amid a structural shift towards increased domestic refining, particularly from the Dangote Refinery, which significantly ramped up output during the period.

Domestic supply peaked at 40.1 million litres per day in January and remained elevated at 36.5 million litres per day in February and 34.2 million litres per day in March, effectively offsetting part of the import shortfall.

A broader view of the 12-month supply trend reveals that, between March and July 2025, Nigeria relied heavily on imports to sustain supply, with total volumes averaging slightly above 50 million litres per day. Imports consistently dominated, reaching 38.5 million litres per day in May 2025, while domestic contributions were lower.

However, supply weakened between August and October 2025, falling to a low of 39.7 million litres per day in September, largely due to reduced import volumes. A subsequent surge in November and December 2025, when supply peaked at 74.2 million litres per day, was driven by a combination of increased imports and improved domestic refining.

By early 2026, the supply structure had begun to rebalance. Imports declined sharply, while local refining assumed a more dominant role.

Despite the temporary decline in imports, recent regulatory actions suggest a recalibration rather than a full retreat as authorities last month approved import licences for six companies, authorising the importation of 600,000 metric tonnes of petrol, equivalent to 804.6 million litres. This is roughly a quarter of Nigeria’s estimated monthly consumption.

The latest approval brings Nigeria’s PMS imports to about 1.8 billion litres in the first four months of the year, amid leadership change at the NMDPRA.

The policy adjustment comes at a time when import parity pricing is beginning to favour external supply, at least marginally.

Fresh pricing data from the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMEN) indicates that the 30-day average landing cost for PMS stands at N1,167.64 per litre, while spot prices have declined to around N1,232 to N1,233 per litre. This compares with the Dangote Refinery’s gantry price of N1,275 per litre.

On the surface, the narrowing gap suggests that imports could offer slightly cheaper alternatives amid a declining naira, driven by the depreciating U.S. dollar.
The trend is even more pronounced in other products such as Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) and Aviation Turbine Kerosene (ATK), where spot prices have fallen significantly below domestic ex-depot rates.

With the war in Iran yet to be resolved, import pricing remains exposed to foreign exchange risks, although the naira has shown relative stability in recent weeks, supported by a weakening dollar. This has helped moderate landing costs and reduced volatility for importers.

MEANWHILE, oil prices climbed slightly on Monday after Donald Trump rejected Iran’s response to a U.S. peace proposal, dampening hopes for a swift resolution to the Middle East conflict.

Brent’s July delivery saw crude rise to $103.3 per barrel, about one per cent, while West Texas Intermediate gained to $96.41. Washington’s proposal focused on ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but Tehran demanded sanctions relief, reparations, and the release of assets.

Trump rejected Iran’s response to a U.S. peace proposal, saying, “I don’t like it – totally unacceptable.”

However, Foreign Ministry spokesperson for Iran, Esmaeil Baghaei, said: “Our demand is legitimate: demanding an end to the war, lifting the (U.S.) blockade and piracy, and releasing Iranian assets that have been unjustly frozen in banks due to U.S. pressure.”