The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has approved 830,000 tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) imports for the fourth quarter of 2026, maintaining the country’s petrol import window despite the significant expansion of domestic refining capacity.

The approvals, issued to six retail companies on September 18, are understood to carry the same volume and beneficiary structure as the allocations granted for the third quarter, indicating that the regulator is retaining an import-based supply buffer through the end of the year.

The development comes amid renewed pressure in the international gasoline market, where tightening supply conditions and a steeper backwardation structure are signalling stronger demand for prompt barrels as geopolitical disruptions continue to affect global refined-product flows.

The Q4 allocation is equivalent to roughly 9.0 million barrels of petrol, based on a standard conversion of approximately 7.3 barrels per metric tonne, although the actual volume of product delivered will depend on cargo specifications.

The decision also highlights the changing dynamics of the downstream petroleum market, where the emergence of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has substantially reduced the country’s dependence on imported petrol but has not eliminated the need for external supply.

Recent NMDPRA data showed that domestic refiners supplied nearly 80 per cent of petrol available in the country during the first six months of 2026, with imports accounting for just over 20 per cent.

Before the ramp-up of domestic refining, petrol imports were a dominant source of supply. The shift has therefore reduced Nigeria’s exposure to imported PMS, while leaving imports as a contingency mechanism when domestic production, logistics or market conditions create supply gaps.

The latest import approvals come against that background, as the international petroleum-products market faces continuing disruption from the Middle East conflict. The disruptions have tightened refined-product markets and altered global trading flows, with European markets also facing concerns over fuel availability heading into the final quarter.

For Nigeria, the timing is particularly important because higher international product prices can feed directly into domestic supply costs under the deregulated downstream market.

NMDPRA had earlier explained that petrol prices reflect several factors, including the cost of crude feedstock, the time between crude procurement and refinery delivery, imported PMS cargo costs, transportation and associated marine and inland charges.

The regulator’s latest decision consequently provides a supply backstop at a time when international market conditions could make reliance on imported petrol more expensive.

The continued issuance of import permits is likely to sustain the debate over how Nigeria balances emergency supply security with the development of its domestic refining industry.

panded its role in regional and international petroleum-product trade. It was reported last week that Nigeria’s petrol imports had fallen from around 400,000 barrels per day in 2024 to about 83,000 barrels per day in 2026, reflecting the refinery’s growing domestic supply contribution.