Nigerians may face fresh pressure on the cost of petrol and other petroleum products as global crude oil prices climbed towards the $100 per barrel mark on Wednesday, coinciding with the resumption of fuel loading by marketers after a week-long disruption triggered by pricing adjustments at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

Brent crude, the international benchmark against which Nigeria’s oil is priced, rose by 3.75% to $94.42 per barrel, while the U.S.’ West Texas Intermediate gained 3.69% to trade at $87.45 per barrel.

The sharp increase followed growing concerns over potential disruptions to crude oil supplies from the Middle East, as security threats intensified around two of the world’s most strategic shipping routes, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

According to the Joint Maritime Information Center (UKMTO), sources close to Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi group indicated that preparations had been completed to target commercial shipping, including the deployment of missiles and drones near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The development has heightened fears of supply disruptions after several oil tankers altered their routes in the Red Sea. Three Saudi oil tankers were also turned back after the Houthis declared a blockade on Saudi oil shipments passing through the waterway.

Market analysts said the situation could worsen if diplomatic efforts fail to ease tensions. United States President Donald Trump has indicated that military operations could intensify, while Russia’s CPC terminal in the Black Sea has also suspended receiving oil from Kazakhstan following attacks on tankers, further tightening global supply.

The rally in crude prices came as petroleum marketers in Nigeria resumed lifting petrol and diesel from private depots after temporarily halting operations to adjust to Dangote Refinery’s switch to dollar-denominated sales.

Depot prices in Lagos rose to N1,275 per litre on Tuesday, representing an increase of N25 per litre, with major facilities including African Terminal, NIPCO, Sahara and Pinnacle simultaneously reviewing their prices upward.

The spokesperson of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, said the temporary suspension was not caused by fuel scarcity but by the need for depot owners to reconcile payments from marketers who had earlier paid at lower prices before the adjustment.

He confirmed that loading had resumed across depots, although it remains unclear whether purchases directly from the Dangote Refinery are now being settled in dollars.

The developments have raised concerns that any sustained rise in international crude prices could further increase domestic petrol prices despite Nigeria’s growing refining capacity.

Recent data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), presented by the International Energy Agency (IEA), showed that Nigeria has significantly reduced its reliance on imported petrol over the past nine months as local refining output continued to improve.

In October 2024, local refineries supplied barely 10,000 to 20,000 barrels per day, while imports exceeded 260,000 barrels daily. By February 2025, domestic deliveries had increased to between 120,000 and 160,000 barrels per day, reducing import requirements.

The biggest shift occurred between November 2025 and February 2026, when domestic refinery deliveries rose from about 130,000 barrels per day to roughly 250,000 barrels per day. Imports fell sharply in the following months, dropping below 100,000 barrels per day in March 2026 as local production strengthened By April and May, domestic refineries were supplying between 260,000 and 280,000 barrels daily, leaving imports at just 30,000 to 50,000 barrels per day. However, June recorded a modest rebound in imports to around 110,000 barrels per day as local refinery deliveries eased to approximately 210,000 barrels per day.

The figures shows the growing role of domestic refining in Nigeria’s fuel supply chain.