Opinion poll weighs Sanwo-Olu, Rhodes-Vivour, Jandor on Lagos guber

Sizes up Fubara, Abe, Cole, Lulu-Briggs in Rivers governorship contest

Ahead of Saturday’s governorship election, an opinion poll has showed a significant lead for Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, with 31 per cent of voters proposing to vote for him.

The poll, commissioned by Anap Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls Limited, was, however, in February – before the presidential elections.

Eight per cent of voters proposed to vote for Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour of the Labour Party (LP) while seven per cent opted for Azeez Olajide Adediran ‘Jandor’ of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

A statement signed by Atedo N. A. Peterside, President and Founder of Anap Foundation, reads in part: “In summary, our February 2023 polls indicate that the race is not completely over, as the undecided voters (19 per cent) and those who refused to reveal their preferred candidate (30 per cent) are large enough to turn the tables.

“Anap Foundation notes that the trends in momentum may be further influenced by the recently concluded presidential elections where Labou Party made a strong showing in Lagos.

“A lot will depend on if there has since been a further surge in Rhodes-Vivour’s momentum.”

The poll notes that Sanwo-Olu’s 23 per cent lead at this stage is significant, as opposition voters are fragmented and share between the two main challengers in the ratio – 31:8:7. Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 19 per cent and 30 per cent respectively. The gender split of undecided voters shows that 24 per cent of women are undecided versus 14 per cent of male voters.

The percentage of registered voters is as follows in each of the districts – 95 per cent in Lagos West and 93 per cent each in Lagos East and Lagos Central.

The poll shows that almost eight in 10 registered voters are absolutely certain that they would be voting in the next governorship election. If they stay committed then there could be a huge turnout in the election.

While the poll shows some significant trends, it is key to note that it was concluded before the presidential elections and that the race is still impossible to call, as undecided/swing voters would ultimately have their say on which candidate emerges as governor of Lagos State.

In Rivers State, the results showed a significant lead for Mr. Siminalayi Fubara with 20 per cent of voters proposing to vote for him.

Eleven per cent proposed to vote for Senator Magnus Abe (SDP) who fell in second place. Mr. Tonye Patrick Cole (APC) was third with 10 per cent and Chief Dumo Owukori Lulu-Briggs (A) was fourth with six per cent.

The poll notes: “Fubara’s nine per cent-point lead at this stage is significant but not sufficient to separate him from a pack of candidates scoring 11 per cent, 10 per cent and six per cent etc.”

“This is a severely fragmented race. Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 23 per cent and 24 per cent respectively. The gender split of undecided voters shows that 27 per cent of women are undecided versus 18 per cent of male voters.

“The percentage of registered voters is as follows in each of the districts – 95 per cent each in Rivers West and Rivers South and 92 per cent in Rivers East.

“The poll shows that almost eight in ten registered voters are absolutely certain that they would be voting in the next governorship election. If they stay committed, then we could witness a huge turnout in the March 11, 2023 governorship elections.

“In summary, our February 2023 polls indicate that the race is not completely over, as the undecided voters (23 per cent) and those who refused to reveal their preferred candidate (24 per cent) are large enough to turn the tables.

“A lot will depend on if there has since been a further surge in Senator Magnus Abe’s momentum and also on the popularity of LP Party, following their strong showing in the state in the presidential elections of February 25, 2023.”