The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following a ceasefire in the Middle East is expected to calm global oil markets and ease petrol prices, although experts say Nigerians may not experience immediate relief at the pumps.

Analysts note that while declining global crude oil prices could influence Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market, pump prices are more likely to reduce gradually, potentially settling around ₦1,000 per litre if market forces are fully allowed to operate.

Industry experts and oil marketers, who spoke in separate interviews in Abuja, said the ceasefire involving the United States, Iran and Israel has restored confidence in global oil supply chains, but warned that domestic price adjustments would take time.

Energy law expert at the University of Lagos, Dayo Ayoade, described the truce as a short-term stabiliser capable of easing disruptions that recently drove crude oil prices higher.

He said, “What we can expect is that oil markets would react positively. We should see gradual normalisation of oil prices as tankers resume movement through the Strait.”

According to him, the reopening of the critical shipping corridor will boost investor confidence and restore the steady flow of commodities across global markets, easing disruptions that have affected fertilisers, aviation fuel and food supply chains.

However, Ayoade noted that the development presents a mixed outcome for oil-producing nations like Nigeria, which may see a decline in revenue as crude oil prices drop.

On domestic pricing, he emphasised that reductions in petrol prices would not be immediate.

“There would be a price drop, but it will take time to reflect locally. Within two to three weeks, if the ceasefire holds, we should begin to see gradual normalisation,” he added.

Also speaking, the Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, Olatide Jeremiah, said although global oil prices have started to decline — dropping by about 11 per cent — local marketers may delay passing the benefits to consumers.

“Depot and retail prices are expected to drop, but there are concerns that reductions may not be reflected promptly,” he said, adding that petrol prices could fall below ₦1,000 per litre if current trends persist.

Similarly, the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) projected a potential drop from the current ₦1,261 per litre to below ₦1,000.

Its Publicity Secretary, Joseph Obele, said petrol prices could even decline to around ₦900 per litre if market stability is sustained.

“With the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Nigerians should expect a significant reduction in petrol prices,” he said, urging the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited to fast-track refinery operations, including the Port Harcourt refinery, to further reduce dependence on imports.

Obele also called on marketers to adjust pump prices in line with actual costs, especially when new, cheaper stock becomes available.

Founder of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Muda Yusuf, said consumers should expect relief within weeks, although existing inventory purchased at higher prices may delay immediate reductions.

“We should begin to see the impact in the coming weeks if the ceasefire is sustained,” he said.

However, economist Sheriffdeen Tella cautioned that improved oil supply conditions do not automatically translate into immediate price cuts in Nigeria’s domestic market.

Global oil markets had surged earlier following disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for roughly one-fifth of global oil supply.

Confirming the reopening, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said the waterway would remain open to commercial shipping for the duration of the ceasefire.

Reacting, former U.S. President Donald Trump welcomed the development, although he indicated that restrictions on Iran would remain pending a broader agreement.

Meanwhile, President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, warned that continued oil price volatility could impact key sectors, including aviation and agriculture, noting a sharp rise in fertiliser costs in recent months.

Energy analysts say the crisis underscores the vulnerability of global oil supply routes and may accelerate investment in alternative pipelines, as well as the global shift towards renewable energy.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most strategic oil transit routes, linking the Persian Gulf to international markets, with disruptions often triggering sharp increases in crude oil prices and widespread economic effects.