‘Post-conflict recovery to cost Nigeria, others $811b yearly’

• NES lauds $47.38b non-oil exports
• AfDB to scale up $518m agric investment in Nigeria
• Stakeholders urge action on poverty, charge subnational govts on dividends

Africa’s transition states, countries navigating post-conflict recovery or struggling with deep macroeconomic challenges, like Nigeria, require about $811 billion yearly to bridge their development gaps, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB).

This funding would cover infrastructure, agriculture, energy, transport, and governance reforms needed to lift millions out of poverty and build resilience.

Speaking at the Nigerian Economic Society (NES) conference, where 22 countries converged on Abuja, AfDB’s Director-General in Nigeria, Abdul Kamara, stressed the urgency of mobilising resources for these economies.

Kamara explained that the AfDB established a dedicated Fragile States Facility to respond to these countries’ unique challenges, providing supplementary financing, supporting arrears clearance for debt-burdened economies, like Sudan and Somalia, and delivering technical assistance and capacity building to strengthen institutions.

According to him, Nigeria is a key beneficiary of the bank’s efforts, citing the $518 million Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones (SAPZ) programme implemented in states, including Cross River, Imo, Oyo, Ogun, Kano, and Kaduna. In his contribution, the President of NES, Prof. Adeola Adenikinju, whose tenure ended yesterday, lauded Nigeria’s progress in diversifying its economy, with non-oil exports generating $47.38 billion between 2015 and 2025.

According to data compiled from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), non-oil export earnings stood at $5.67 billion in 2015 but fell sharply to $2.23 billion in 2016 amid macroeconomic shocks and foreign exchange pressures. The recovery gathered pace in subsequent years, reaching $3.55 billion in 2017, $3.61 billion in 2018, and $4.82 billion in 2019.

The sector recorded its highest performance in 2020, at $6.28 billion, before moderating to $5.35 billion in 2021, $4.80 billion in 2022, and $4.50 billion in 2023, partly due to global commodity price volatility and domestic logistics constraints.

For 2025, provisional figures for the first half of the year show $3.225 billion in earnings, suggesting that the full-year total could exceed last year’s numbers if current momentum is sustained.

Adenikinju attributed the recent uptick to reforms in the foreign exchange market, improved access to export financing, and targeted interventions in agriculture and manufacturing.

Chief Executive of Watershed Fund Management, Dr Olumuyiwa Olanrewaju, praised the administration’s efforts to reposition the economy away from oil but called on state governments to play a greater role.

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