Nigeria faces a critical challenge to national development: a growing infrastructure deficit. Unreliable power, deteriorating roads, strained healthcare, and uneven digital connectivity limit productivity, deepen regional inequality, and undermine resilience amid rapid population growth.

Beyond the scale of the deficit, a deeper problem persists around the absence of a coordinated, data-driven planning framework across federal, state, and local governments. Without it, investments underperform. Nigeria urgently needs a planning system that applies systems thinking, agility, and forward-looking strategies, learning from global best practices while addressing the country’s unique realities.

Nigeria Cannot Plan What It Has Not Measured

A key step is a National Integrated Infrastructure and Spatial Gap Analysis, this is acomprehensive assessment mapping existing asset, deficits, population needs, economic activity and climate risks Countries such as Australia, Canada, Singapore, South Korea, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom update similar assessments regularly and use them as the foundation for investment decisions.

Without this baseline:

A national gap analysis would provide clarity by identifying where infrastructure is missing, where population growth is highest, which regions face the greatest economic and climate risks, and which projects can deliver the highest value.

Outdated Planning Figures Must Be Updated

The National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (NIIMP) was last updated in 2020, estimating that Nigeria needed US$2.3 trillion from 2020–2043, including US$150 billion over five years (US$30 billion annually).

However, these numbers are five years old and no longer reflect reality, yet they continue to guide national discourse in 2025. The Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission (ICRC), for instance, recently reaffirmed the Federal Government’s resolve to close the infrastructure gap, still referencing the US$2.3 trillion figure. Link

Current independent assessments show that the 2020 baseline is now inadequate:

These figures confirm that the true scale of Nigeria’s infrastructure needs is far beyond the 2020 estimate.

Global Economic Pressures Have Escalated Costs

Infrastructure costs have surged due to global inflation, supply chain disruptions, rising shipping and insurance costs, geopolitical conflicts, climate adaptation needs, and shifts in trade dynamics. Nigeria’s reliance on imported materials worsens the impact, as currency depreciation and recent U.S. tariffs have increased the cost of steel, cement, machinery, and technology.

Developed nations address these challenges with agile, adaptive planning: rolling reviews, updated cost projections, revised project priorities, and climate resilience integrated into every major investment. Nigeria must adopt a similar forward-looking approach. Ignoring these realities risks under-planning, underfunding, and underbuilding making a mid-term review of the National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan essential now.

Recognising Ongoing Federal and State Progress

Despite systemic challenges, Nigeria is making notable progress.

At the federal level, the government has rehabilitated key roads, advanced reforms that allow states to generate and distribute electricity, expanded gas and off-grid energy projects, and improved digital connectivity.

State governments are also demonstrating leadership. Lagos State continues to expand its metro rail system, implement multimodal transport solutions, and develop drainage master plans. Abia State has shown progress in road upgrades and urban reforms. Other states such as Kano, Kaduna, Oyo, and Rivers are making advances in healthcare, water supply, road networks, and urban development.

These achievements demonstrate that when planning is structured and long-term, the results are visible.

Why Integrated National and Sub-National Planning Matters

Modern infrastructure in developed countries is guided by systems thinking. This means that transport, energy, water, health, digital networks, and urban development are planned together rather than in isolation. Nigeria’s current approach is too fragmented to deliver the level of efficiency and resilience the country needs.

Integrated, systems-based planning will:

Countries such as Singapore, the Netherlands, and South Korea exemplify this approach through national spatial data systems, long-term monitoring dashboards, and transparent project prioritisation frameworks. Nigeria can learn from these global best practices.

Agility and Forward-Thinking: What Nigeria Must Adopt

In leading nations, infrastructure planning is agile. Plans are living documents, updated continuously with real-time data, predictive analytics, and scenario planning. Nigeria must adopt similar approaches by:

Forward-looking planning ensures that investments made today remain effective and resilient tomorrow.

Key Recommendations for the Federal Government

Conclusion: A Call for Strategic, Data-Driven Coordination

Nigeria faces a narrow window to transform its infrastructure landscape. By adopting integrated planning, systems thinking, agility, and forward-looking strategies, the country can build a resilient and competitive future. The path to national development depends not only on how much Nigeria spends, but on how effectively it aligns vision, data, and coordinated governance. The time to act is now.

Elatuyi writes via [email protected].