No Respite For The World Yet

From unprecedented Ebola fatalities to the blood-chilling challenges poised by terrorist groups, including Islamic State (IS) and Nigeria’s contribution, Boko Haram, to Russian conflict with countries of the western hemisphere over Ukraine, the world, which still have to keep a wary eye on North Korea, may not have a comfortable breather, despite global efforts. 2014, a year described as the hottest (climate wise) since 1886, was a very challenging one for the world; 2015, sadly, holds no serious promise of respite.

IS Unrelenting War Without Borders 

WHAT do they really want? Who are they? What do they want? The threatened. They carry out their threats with abandon recklessness. How long is the world going to cope with the savagery that the IS has come to represent? As if to underscore that their activities would be the major challenge the global community will have to contend with in 2015, on Wednesday, February 3, they burned alive in a cage the Jordanian pilot, Moaz al-Kasasbeh, who they had held hostage for months. Two days earlier they had assassinated another hostage, Japanese journalist, Kenji Goto.

   The IS, conscious decision to terrorise enemies and impress and co-opt new recruits, has become synonymous with viciousness –– beheadings, crucifixions, stonings, massacres, burying victims alive and religious and ethnic cleansing.

   IS adheres to a doctrine of total war without limits and constraints –– no such thing, for instance, as arbitration or compromise when it comes to settling disputes with even Sunni Islamist rivals. Unlike its parent organisation, al-Qaeda, IS pays no lip service to theology to justify its crimes.

   Weeks before the recent IS dastardly act was carried out, a summit in London by 21 coalescing nations marshaled fresh ways of dealing a decisive blow on the militants. But they are not under any illusion that the battle will end in one week, or one month.   The coalition also admitted that it is a war not going to be won by only airplanes and drones; ground troops must be involved. Defeating IS will take time, it would require perseverance and it would be expensive. 

Boko Haram Set To Internationalise Conflict

IN what is perhaps the most brutal insurgency on the continent, Boko Haram is spreading its horrors to neighbouring Niger, Chad and Cameroon. It has seized vast amounts of territory, threatening Nigeria’s territorial integrity.

   Reports estimate that some three million people are affected by the humanitarian crisis caused by the five-year insurgency in the north-east.

   No more the single unit attributed to Mohammed Yussuf, its founder, the group now believed to be split into numerous factions, which operate largely autonomously across northern and central Nigeria.

  International crisis think-tank, the International Crisis Group (ICG), estimates there are six of them ­–– the most organised and ruthless one being the cell in Borno State, where the group has captured large expanse of territory.

    If Boko Haram succeeds in its territorial ambitions –– seizing towns in Niger, Chad and Cameroon, as its leader had threatened –– the conflict could take on a new international dimension. France is likely to become more directly involved in the conflict to protect its former colonies.

Putin Unlikely To Back-Down Over Ukraine Despite Economic Concerns

A SURGE in violence in east Ukraine is undermining international hopes that Russia’s financial crisis and Western sanctions will force President Vladimir Putin to change policy on the conflict.

    There is a growing sense of foreboding as fighting between Ukrainian government forces and separatists intensifies, complicating efforts to arrange summit talks involving Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany.

  Each side fears the other plans a new military offensive; Ukraine is mobilizing new troops and Russia and the pro-Russian separatists have stepped up their rhetoric against Kiev’s pro-Western leaders.

   Even though the ruble’s decline, the fall of oil prices and the impact of sanctions are likely to force Russia into recession and budget cuts, Putin has barely flinched.

   Several weeks ago, before Russia’s economic crisis took a firm grip, he stopped using the term “Novorossiya” (New Russia) in public when referring to parts of southern and eastern Ukraine that were once part of the Russian empire.

2014 Is Ebola Year, But 2015 May Not Offer Desired Respite

JUST when the world heaving a sigh of relief and strategizing on mopping up fallouts of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), a sad reminder reared its deadly head in the last two weeks of January. The number of new cases of Ebola went up in all three of West Africa’s worst-hit countries –– Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea –– the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday.

  Sierra Leone registered 80 of the 124 new cases, Guinea 39 and Liberia the remaining five, in the first weekly increase of 2015, ending a series of encouraging declines.

   Recently, the WHO announced its lowest weekly tally of new cases since June 2014, raising hopes that a turning point in the battle against the disease might have been reached.

   But suspicion of aid workers, especially in Guinea, and unsafe local practices were continuing to hamper efforts to contain the virus, the United Nations agency said.

   Eleven new cases were blamed on one unsafe burial that took place in eastern Guinea on the border with Cote d’Ivoire, where a rapid response team has now been deployed, the WHO adds.

   Meanwhile, the race is still the effort to finding ways to prevent and cure the deadly virus. There are no proven treatments for Ebola or vaccines to prevent individuals becoming infected as at yet.

Keeping An Eye On North Korea

IT is hard to tell what the bigger concern on the Korean peninsula will be over the next year: more nuclear weapons and ballistic missile tests by the North, or potential political discontinuities inside the Pyongyang regime. Neither is a good outcome.

   The first scenario would highlight the fact that over 20 years after the first nuclear agreement with North Korea in October 1994 (the Agreed Framework), and 10 years after the second nuclear agreement in September 2005 (the Six-Party Joint Statement), the problem has become exponentially worse in 2015. North Korea, under Kim Jong-un’s byongjin strategy appears to be aiming to develop the full spectrum of nuclear capabilities, from plutonium and uranium-based weapons to potential battlefield use. 

The Obama administration might try to make one last push for a denuclearization deal like the September 2005 agreement, but success would be highly unlikely.

   The second scenario is no better. The machinations of North Korean leadership dynamics raise concerns about regime stability. It is not clear if the young leader is calling the shots or if there are power struggles among elites in the party and military over a shrinking pie. Even if internal power struggles are not the problem, Kim’s health may be. A number of western diplomats, who have met the young leader in person at diplomatic functions in Pyongyang, claimed that he is grossly obese, much more so than official pictures depict; that he is a chain smoker; that he drinks heavily; and that his face looks unusually unhealthy for a 29- or 30-year-old. There is a history of heart disease in the family (Kim’s father and grandfather both died of massive heart attacks), as well as purported kidney and liver problems. The chances that he can rule for decades like his predecessors are slim.

   The challenge for those opposed to Pyongyang will be how to maintain focus on happenings in this part of the world. Washington and Seoul might consider improved defense cooperation in areas like drone technology, which could be useful against North Korea. Regional security also requires better defense cooperation and information sharing between South Korea and Japan. As reluctant as the South Koreans may be to work with their neighbour, enhanced U.S.-Japan-Korea trilateral alliance cooperation is the best answer to North Korea’s threats and possible regime instability.

   Also, the US is likely to continue with its robust defense cooperation with South Korea. This means enhancing missile defense, including the introduction of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) to the peninsula; delay of the transfer of wartime Operational Control (OPCON) from the United States to South Korea; and a rigorous regimen of military exercises to reinforce