Africa’s limping leviathans

Insecurity between herdsmen and farmers has increased local conflicts, even as Boko Haram continues to wreak havoc in the country’s north-east. Along with threats from Niger Delta militants, these problems have prevented Nigeria from playing an effective military role in stemming terrorism in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, with France instead playing the role of hegemon in the Sahel. Buhari’s main challenger – Atiku Abubakar – was vice-president for eight years and has been trailed by accusations of corruption.

Neither party really seems to have a coherent vision for addressing Nigeria’s problems, and their septuagenarian candidates have traversed the country spreading apathy, even as 87 million Nigerians continue to live below the poverty line: a stinging indictment on the country’s Lilliputian leaders over the last six decades. Buhari is expected to win a close election, but questions linger over how fair the polls will be, and whether the president’s health would hold out for another four years.  
 
Africa’s most industrialised state, South Africa – the Leviathan on the Limpopo, with 60% of the Southern African economy – holds elections in May. The only question is whether Cyril Ramaphosa’s African National Congress (ANC) will be able to mobilise its supporters to deliver a majority victory. Opposition parties were able to win control of Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Port Elizabeth in municipal elections in 2016 largely because the ANC’s supporters stayed away.

As 55% of the black population continue to live in grinding poverty, government policies such as an anti-corruption drive, the minimum wage, land reform, and social grants are designed to ensure electoral victory. The ANC will probably stumble over the finish line, but the ruling party is likely to remain divided if Ramaphosa can not deliver a 60% electoral majority. Despite economic stimulus and infrastructure and investment drives, the economy is likely to continue its slow growth amidst a weak Rand.
 
This year also sees South Africa’s return to the United Nations (UN) Security Council for a two-year term. Its main priority will be the post-election political instability in the DRC: the Leviathan on the Congo, and Africa’s geographically second largest state. South Africa – with Angola – has received insufficient credit for its diplomatic energy in ensuring that the kleptocratic 18-year rule of Joseph Kabila came to an end. A meddling France has, however, still not learned the wisdom of maintaining a discreet silence in African disputes.

The Congo continues to confound soothsayers: a post-election battle expected to be fought over the forced installation of a government candidate, instead resulted in a farcical dispute between two opposition candidates amidst a politically compromised electoral commission and Constitutional Court. Newly-installed president, Félix Tshisekedi, will struggle to impose his authority over this huge country with a still volatile East suffering increasing cases of Ebola, even as just 1% of a vast rural population has access to electricity. The African Union’s (AU) mediation will be constrained by its chair, Rwanda’s Paul Kagame’s past military interventions and reported looting of the country’s mineral resources.
 
Sudan – the Leviathan on the Nile, and Africa’s geographically third largest country – is in the midst of the most serious challenge to military strongman Omar al-Bashir’s thirty-year rule. As oil reserves were cut by 75% following the secession of South Sudan in 2011, and oil revenues slashed further by the new country’s five-year civil war, the sky-rocketing prices of bread, medicines, and fuel in Sudan have resulted in trade union-led protests and a brutal government crackdown. At 70%, the country’s inflation is the second highest in the world after Venezuela’s.  Despite printing money to restore subsidies and to increase civil service salaries, a people’s uprising similar to those that toppled military regimes in Sudan in 1964 and 1985 can not be completely ruled out if the army turns against Bashir.      

The sixth hegemon, Algeria – the Leviathan in the Sahara, with a third of North Africa’s economy, and Africa’s geographically largest country – will be consumed by speculation over whether its reclusive 81-year old wheelchair-bound president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, is well enough to run for a fifth presidential term this May to extend his 20-year rule. A shadowy puppeteering clique – le pouvoir – will continue to pull the strings behind the scenes. The oil and gas-rich country will continue to struggle from poor governance, even as 25% of Algerians under 30 remain unemployed, and militant groups continue to challenge state authority.
 
These six countries all suffer from crises of large populations of unemployed youth. The recruitment of some of these young men by militias continues to fuel instability in Nigeria, Ethiopia, the DRC, Sudan, and Algeria. Former military brass hats – sometimes with autocratic instincts – also rule Nigeria, Sudan, and Ethiopia. If the continent’s six limping Leviathans are unable to foster the internal coherence that can enable them to play a regional leadership role, they could instead destabilise their regions. Africa is thus set for another year of living dangerously. 
• Adebajo is Director, University of Johannesburg’s Institute for Pan-African Thought and Conversation, South Africa