The exclusive invitation by United States President Joe Biden to President Bola Tinubu offers a window of socio-economic opportunity to Nigeria, if well taken. While political stability of the West African corridor will likely be a major focus of the discussion, America will remain a major economic block that can be harnessed by the present administration, if only to correct the imbalance in the countries’ mutual trade. The duo’s meeting may be on the sidelines of the United Nations Assembly in New York scheduled to run from September 18 to 26, 2023. The exclusive invitation to President Tinubu was conveyed by the US Presidential envoy and assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Molly Phee as he disclosed that President Tinubu was the only leader in Africa so invited for the special interface with the US leader.
The two presidents are expectedly to discuss the situation in Niger Republic on which Tinubu, who chairs the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), is working with other heads of government in the sub region to restore democracy after a military junta seized power on July 26, 2023. Tinubu has consistently called for more US investment in Nigeria and greater cooperation for the defence of democracy in the sub-region of West Africa.
The prospect of the oncoming meeting by the two leaders, to re-energise Nigeria-US relations, was reinforced last Sunday before the curtains drew on G20 Summit in New Delhi, India which had President Biden including other major counterparts from Germany, South Korea among others in attendance as Tinubu reiterated the need for economic diplomacy and practical steps in bilateral relations among the nations.
The kernel of President Tinubu’s informal interaction with Biden in New Delhi last Sunday as captured in briefing room statements and releases (accessed at www.whitehouse.gov) highlighted Biden hailing Tinubu for the steps taken so far to revive Nigeria’s economy since he became President on May 29. The US President also reportedly applauded Tinubu’s role as ECOWAS Chairman with respect to the restoration of democratic governance in Niger Republic and beyond.
Beyond the diplomatic niceties, the US interest in the happenings in Niger is linked to the suspected threat the coup could have on the trans-Saharan 30bcm gas pipeline that would link Europe to the giant gas fields in Nigeria. It is a $13b, 5,600-kilometre gas pipeline project expected to fuel 11 countries along the African coast on its way to Morocco and then be connected to the energy system of Spain or Italy. The project has attracted fresh impetus after Russian gas supplies to the EU were cut off last year.
At a meeting held in the Nigerian capital of Abuja in June 2022, energy ministers from Algeria, Nigeria and Niger agreed to accelerate the work on the mooted Trans-Saharan gas pipeline (TSGP), which could carry 30bn cubic metres per year of gas exports from the three countries to Europe.
The idea of the trans-Saharan pipeline was first proposed in the 1970s, but revived in 2002 when the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and Algerian national oil and gas company Sonatrach signed the Memorandum of Understanding for preparations of the project. A feasibility study was completed in September 2006, and it found the pipeline to be technically and economically feasible and reliable. However, little progress on the project has been made since then until a new MoU was signed in June 2022 to revive hopes for a fresh start.
In December 2022, similar invitation was extended to former President Muhammadu Buhari to meet President Biden on the sidelines of the US-Africa Leaders Summit held in Washington D.C. during which efforts by Buhari to “deepening democracy” in Nigeria, nay Africa was commended.
Interestingly, Tinubu will be meeting Biden few days after the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal (PEPT) delivered its judgment affirming the validity of Tinubu’s election as the president, although the verdict is subject of appeal to the Supreme Court.
The major difference between the December 2022 meeting and the oncoming one this September is the number of African leaders that participated in the former while president Tinubu is exclusively invited for the latter. Washington US-Africa Summit, apart from Nigeria, also had the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Liberia, Madagascar, and Sierra Leone in attendance with the twin-issue of election and democracy in Africa as major subject of discussion.
As military juntas are dethroning democratically elected governments in parts of Africa, Biden’s message during the US-Africa summit is turning out to be instructive; and as ECOWAS struggles to resolve the Niger Republic impasse, the military also struck in Gabon on August 30, thus compounding the situation.
In a likely focal point of the forthcoming engagement with Biden, the Nigerian leader had asserted the need for the American-backed development finance and multilateral institutions designed to support war-torn Europe after World War II to undergo swift and comprehensive reforms in order to meet the developmental requirements of young democracies in Africa. Tinubu’s belief is that such reforms will serve as precautions to ensure that the legitimate yearnings of Africans will no longer be manipulated to serve the narrow aims of self-seeking demagogues through unconstitutional takeovers of power.
His words: “Yes, the private sector will lead the way within an enabling environment we create for them, but the U.S. Government must be innovative in its thinking and systematically create incentive for U.S. industrial investment in Nigeria. Under my leadership, Nigeria stands ready to address their specific regulatory, tax and environmental concerns. I am determined to create prosperity for all Nigerian families.”
In what appeared like a shift in the hard line posture initially adopted by the ECOWAS in resolving the Niger Republic debacle, Tinubu’s remarks while accepting the US invitation was reassuring: “We are deep in our attempts to peacefully settle the issue in Niger by leveraging on our diplomatic tools. I continue to hold ECOWAS back, despite its readiness for all options, in order to exhaust all other remedial mechanisms. War is not ideal for my economic reforms, nor for the region, but the defence of democracy is sacrosanct. The ECOWAS consensus is that we will not allow anyone to insincerely buy time.”
The least expectation on the oncoming Biden-Tinubu meeting is to define the direction that Nigeria’s foreign policy will take in the days ahead, and for President Tinubu to ensure a win package for Nigeria.
