Africa emits about 4% of global carbon dioxide yet suffers some of the most searing impacts of climate change—relentless droughts, scorching heatwaves, and barren harvests.

Meanwhile, the global community expects the continent to decarbonize as swiftly as the industrialized world. Is that expectation just, or is it a call for an impossible sprint?

A Crisis Demanding a Unique Response

For millions across Africa, climate change is not a distant spectre—it is a daily assault. Rising temperatures ravage agricultural systems, decimate water supplies, and destabilize economies already on the brink. In communities where food security and public health hang by a thread, the push toward clean energy appears both urgent and out of reach. Unlike industrialized nations that built their prosperity over centuries of fossil fuel use, vast segments of Africa still struggle to secure basic energy access. Until these immediate needs are met, the shimmering promise of a carbon-neutral future remains a tantalizing illusion.

Challenges in the Transition

Moreover, the path to decarbonization in Africa is fraught with significant hurdles.Despite being home to 20% of the world’s population, Africa attracts less than 3% of global renewable energy investments. Overwhelming upfront costs, volatile currencies, and crushing debt burdens exacerbate these challenges. Even with abundant natural gas, infrastructural shortcomings often lead to wasteful practices like flaring. Nigeria, with large gas reserves estimated at 209.26 trillion cubic feet, starkly illustrates how financial instability and inadequate infrastructure can undermine resource development. Furthermore, although Africa holds enormous potential as a natural carbon sink, its contributions are frequently undervalued in global carbon credit schemes—frameworks designed primarily by wealthier nations to offset their emissions.

Unleashing Africa’s Renewable Brilliance

Amid these challenges, Africa has a remarkable advantage: boundless renewable energy. Imagine this—a mere 0.3% of the sunlight cascading on the Sahara and the deserts of the Middle East could electrify all of Europe. Such a remarkable statistic, championed by energy expert Arnulf Jäger-Waldau, reveals Africa’s vast solar bounty. Beyond the sun, Africa is a treasure trove of critical minerals; it hosts about 80% of the world’s manganese, platinum, and chromium reserves, all essential for batteries and energy storage systems that power renewable infrastructure.

Burundi’s 7.5MW Mubuga Solar Power Station, which boosted national power output by 10% when it launched in 2021, stands as a beacon of what’s possible if Africa harnesses its renewable dynamism.

While this potential is immense, expecting Africa to adopt the aggressive decarbonization timelines of industrialized nations is simply not feasible. The richest economies built their prosperity over centuries fueled by coal, oil, and gas. Do they expect Africa—a continent where millions still lack basic energy— to sprint toward net-zero emissions without the requisite economic or infrastructural foundation?

Divergent Paths: Lessons from Elsewhere

To truly appreciate Africa’s predicament, one must consider the divergent energy transitions witnessed around the world. Iceland, for instance, has harnessed its volcanic endowment to generate nearly 100% of its electricity from geothermal and hydropower sources. This natural bounty has fueled a renewable revolution that has effectively erased the environmental scars of a bygone fossil-fuel era.

By contrast, countries like the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom built their industries on decades of coal, oil, and gas investments, only later transitioning to cleaner energy once their infrastructures were well-established.

Africa, however, faces a double bind. Despite its ambitious developmental plans, a staggering 600 million people on the continent still lack consistent access to electricity. Expecting Africa to replicate the rapid decarbonization timelines of industrialized nations is akin to asking a fledgling sprinter to outpace an Olympic champion.

Bridging Today’s Needs and Tomorrow’s Dreams

At the heart of Africa’s energy narrative lies a stark dilemma: balancing the immediate crisis of energy poverty with the long-term goal of carbon neutrality. Nearly 50 % of the continent’s population endures the hardship of erratic or nonexistent power supply—a deficit that stifles economic growth, undermines healthcare, and impedes education. In response, two contrasting visions have emerged.

One camp argues that Africa should abandon fossil fuels altogether and embrace renewables. Malawi’s Nkhotakota Solar Power Station, which injected 21 MW into the grid in 2023 to power around 200,000 households, is often cited as proof that a renewable leap is achievable. Yet this path leans precariously on the fickle support of international financing.

The other perspective holds that Africa must first secure reliable, affordable energy—even if that means using fossil fuels in the short term. Transitional fuels like natural gas, burning far cleaner than coal, can bridge the gap until renewable capacity expands. South Africa’s vigorous expansion of its liquefied petroleum gas market, along with Nigeria’s strides in harnessing compressed natural gas (CNG) to power transportation, exemplify pragmatic approaches to addressing today’s energy crisis while laying the groundwork for tomorrow’s green revolution.

Charting a Homegrown Transition

Africa’s path to carbon neutrality must be as unique as the continent itself. A just transition demands tailored financial strategies, robust investments in renewable infrastructure, and policies that harmonize economic growth with environmental stewardship. African leaders must craft a realistic and strategic roadmap—one that addresses immediate energy needs while laying the groundwork for long-term sustainability. In essence, Africa should define its energy future at its own pace, ensuring that the burden of climate action does not fall unfairly on those who contributed the least yet stand to lose the most.

Kalada-Green, an energy analyst, works in the Origination Advisory Department at ZKJ Energy Partners Limited