ABOUT 500 years ago, Machiavelli declared authoritatively that there is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle than to initiate a new order of things.’ (Nicholo’ Machiavelli, (1532) The Prince: A handbook of power, politics and statesmanship).

As it was then, so it is now. Change, whether imposed or voluntary, is not a tea party, it is a serious business and the failure rate of change efforts averages above 70%.

Those who are genuinely interested in making a success of change-and the transition, which is the core issue-, therefore make conscious efforts to create the conditions that are favourable for success or avoid those that have the capabilities to torpedo the effort. Some of these critical success factors (or hindrances in reverse) are objectives, leadership and the expectation dynamics.

The first step to getting the things you want out of life is to decide what you want. As it is for life, so it is for the slippery process of change. The importance of change objectives is that they determine the strategies adopted and provide a means of assessing performance. Many change programmes actually have objectives but at times, these objectives are shortsighted or self-serving, non-inclusive, or are ‘kurukere’ and contain some hidden agenda. Consequently, they adopt strategies that may not last the distance or are out-rightly Machiavellian.

Leadership is obviously a critical factor in the success or failure of change management. A key dimension in this leadership factor is its unity and cohesiveness; thus when there is leadership disharmony, the center cannot hold and if it comes early in the change process, it is a serious cause for alarm.

Another important issue in change and change management is expectation dynamics. Some change leaders deliberately (to secure short-lived support) or accidentally (due to poor change management expertise), overpromise on the dividends of the change. This is more so when they fail to reveal or deliberately hide the likely downsides of the process. The immediate outcome is a crisis of expectation, which reverses the temporary support and accentuates resistance to the change or to the change agent. Even in ordinary customer relations, organizations are warned not to promise more than they can deliver or else they attract instant backlash. Indeed, it may well be better to promise less than one can deliver so as to have some room to maneuver or to create an A+ effect.

The APC operated as if its sole objectives was to chase Goodluck away from Aso Rock. And that was probably why they accommodated everybody and anybody, who could contribute to the agenda of consigning Goodluck to Otuoke. The antecedents of these political nomads were ignored. And now, having brought in ant-infested firewood, the lizards have come a visiting and that is where we are today.

Our people say that a person who swallows a needle should not celebrate until he has successfully emptied his bowels. The APCians swallowed a very long and twisted needle and engaged in premature celebration. It is now time to defecate and the needle has made that simple, natural process, messy! Even then, since they are the change-masters, they should have known that one of the key dangers in change and change management is premature celebration. The wind has blown and we have seen the anus of the foul.

The second issue is leadership harmony or disharmony, as the case may be. We have this elementary adage that divided we fail. As at today, APC is a metaphor for disunity and this is because of the recruitment and selection strategies they adopted. Which sane organization would go to the unemployment or unemployable market, ring the bell and ask everybody to go and collect employment letter from the personnel department? But that was exactly what APC did.

There is already a serious crisis of expectations even though it is early in the day and it is a self-inflicted wound because the ruling party created the conditions favourable for the current wild expectations from the populace. In the face of deformed objectives, leadership disharmony and crisis of expectations, we have witnessed more of the same and an avalanche of excuses. We are still inundated by fuel queues, BH bombardments, armed robbery and kidnappings, boxing contests by legislators at Abuja and the states, outrageous allowances by ‘legislooters’ and continuous concern by politicians for their interests as against our collective interests. We have also been admonished to be patient since they are ‘not magicians’.

The APC should negotiate what is possible and swallow the humble pie. In terms of performance expectations, the party and government should now come open, explain its situation truthfully, devoid of propaganda, and sign a fresh compact with the people. It is obvious that the electoral offerings are not realistic; not because of what the transformation merchant did or failed to do but because the party threw caution to the winds in its promises. Meanwhile, there is one lady who writes on Saturday Guardian and introduces herself as a mother of two and wife. Her name is Ukinebo Dare. On 21/3/15, she wrote ‘While waiting for the change you desire, you need to build your capacity to manage it. While praying for a blessing, assess your capacity to contain it. If you do not yet have what you need in order to transform a windfall into growth, please, build it! (p40).

• Ik Muo, PhD. FCIB is of the Department of Business Administration, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Ogun State.