That December 7, 2025, failed coup in Benin Republic,was a rude and ugly reminder of Nigeria’s political, social and economic vulnerabilities. Allowing the insurrectionists to prevail over President Frances Talon’s democratically elected government, would have had severe implications for Nigeria and the sub-region. It would have reconfigured the geo-political template, forcing Nigeria to be sandwiched between two military governments; one (Niger) to the North and the other (Benin) to the West.
Nigerians would have been further exposed to compelling stories of military exploits in neighbouring countries and suffering the infatuation that comes with it. It is a precarious situation already; one not helped by the quasi democracies in neighbouring Cameroun and Chad, the North-east and East.
Chad is more of a dictatorship bequeathed from father to son. After Idriss Deby was killed by insurgents, having been in power for more than 30 years, his son, Deby Itno, stepped in. Itno has just scrapped constitutional term limit to allow him rule in perpetuity.
Cameroun is presently a gerontocracy, presided by old man Paul Biya, who has refused to let go at 92. Had the Benin coup succeeded, Nigeria would have been thrown into panic mode. It would have been a straight-jacketed scenario with nothing to cheer on all sides.
The timing of last Sunday’s insurrection in Benin seemed auspicious for Nigeria to show a little strength. In a week, when a high-level delegation of the United States visited on a fact-finding mission amid growing concerns in Washington over reported genocide against Christians in Nigeria, it was a moment to demonstrate that the country is still a regional power.
The National Security Adviser to President Tinubu, Nuhu Ribadu, was hosting the U.S. Congressional delegation that included Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, Rep. Norma Tprres, Rep. Scott Franklin, Rep. Juan Ciscomani and Rep. Riley M. More.
It was an opportunity for this government to re-enact the role of the Big Brother Nigeria used to provide at the regional level. Once upon a time, it was Nigeria that rallied other countries in the sub-region to form the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), in 1975. ECOWAS was instrumental for creating the atmosphere for trade and political bonding among the original 15 states.
Although the bulk of the funding that sustained ECOWAS was borne by Nigeria, she did it with joy. When there was need to deploy boots to quell civil wars in Liberian and Sierra Leone, Nigeria usually spearheaded the campaigns.
That was what happened two Sundays ago, when Nigeria rallied Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire, to rescue President Talon.
Despite their gory findings in Benue and other terrorists ravaged locations, the visiting Congressmen from the U.S. should at least, find something to cheer when they present their report to President Trump, of Nigeria’s gallantry in rising to the occasion for democracy in the sub-region.
Hopefully, the Congressmen may now be aware that Nigeria could have done better in tackling terrorism if not for the politics and religion that is embedded underneath. Former Chief of Army Staff, Lt. Gen. Tukur Yusufu Buratai, said pointedly last week in a television chat, that Boko Haram was instigated by politics, before it snowballed into massive terrorism.
Why government has not summoned the courage to expose and deal with the political sponsors of terrorists is what is baffling. Hopefully, Trump’s solution will extract commitment from the political authorities.
The political situation in Benin and across Africa reminds one of Nigeria’s shrinking capacities at the regional level and beyond. It was the first Prime Minister, Tafawa Balewa, who defined Africa as the centerpiece of Nigeria’s foreign policy. Over the decades, sincere efforts were made to keep faith with that tradition of providing leadership, including playing frontline roles to liberate Southern African countries from colonial rule.
More gallantry was recorded in the military era. But now, the country is bogged down in domestic troubles and is consigned to the back-seat at global meetings. Nigeria is not on the front row at BRICS, because she had gone to sleep at the planning stage. We only wait for the yearly UNGA, where President Tinubu has curiously been absent in the last two editions, to beg for a seat at the UN Security Council.
Ordinarily, Nigeria should demand and not lobby for the seat, had she sustained the enviable gallantry of the 60s, 80s and even 90s. Today, even foreign affairs scholars are in the dark regarding the current foreign policy objectives.
When ECOWAS began to lose members to military regimes, particularly in the aftermath of the July 26, 2023 military coup in Niger, President Tinubu, as chairman of ECOWAS, thought the traditional thing to do was to quell the coup and return ousted President Mohammed Bazoum.
He attempted to rally ECOWAS to apply force but the obstacle to that effort was engineered in the North, because Niger was considered to be a second home to many states bordering that country: Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Katsina, Jigawa, Yobe and Borno. When President Tinubu saw the handwriting on the wall, he resorted to hiring religious and political emissaries to appeal to the soldiers.
Even the Senate tactfully turned down President Tinubu’s request to send troops to enforce the resolution by the Heads of States of ECOWAS, because Senators from the North were reported to opposed it. The Senate cleverly downplayed the request and opted for diplomatic engagement with Niger.
But last week, the same Senate approved President Tinubu’s request for troops deployment to Benin, without a debate and with no dissenting vote. There was no attempt to critically assess the governance model in that country, which provoked the attempted coup in the first place. This Senate looks duplicitous, not guided by a shared ideology or grounded on principles.
What has happened to Nigeria’s foreign policy architecture is the absence of consensus to drive the objectives. What military governments achieved on the basis of what’s good for the collective interest of the country, today’s politicians have ceded to religious and traditional rulers for vetting. The country’s foreign policy has been compromised by religion and ethnicity. Benin Republic was a soft target to which nobody attached religious or ethnic sentiments.
Though the South-west people share historic and linguistic ties with groups in Benin, they are not considered strong enough to sacrifice the survival of the country or that of the sub-region. Should there be serious trouble between Nigeria and Niger, millions of Nigerians may vote on the side of a foreign country. That’s part of the reasons terrorism is hard to contain across porous and compromised borders.
Weighing the options
As already known, the ECOWAS community has lost three significant member countries: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, for now. They have formed the Alliance of Sahel States, a parallel outfit to the 50-year-old ECOWAS. If the coup in Benin had succeeded, that would have added to their numbers, to the disadvantage of the regional government.
A divided ECOWAS does not help in the fight against terrorism. It further polarises the region in regard to global powers’ unending appetite to divide and rule the sub region. They are not seeking to recolonise African countries for the fun of it. They are more interested in the mineral resources.
A Benin Republic under military rule would have been sympathetic to the Alliance of Sahelian States, socially and economically. Maritime ports in Benin would have become more accessible. On the other hand, an unfriendly Benin Republic would have cost Nigeria a great deal in commerce and trade. Benin is a major junction for shipping activities for Nigerian businesses. Vehicles and consumers goods meant for Nigeria come through Benin Republic, officially and through illegal routes.
Official Trade Statistics (2023), confirmed that over 75 per cent of goods offloaded in Cotonou port were intended for Nigerian market. Importers prefer to go through Benin ports, due to lower costs and faster turnaround times, whereas in Nigeria, the bottlenecks and tariffs are choking businesses. In terms of bilateral trade, Nigeria’s exports to Benin are valued at around $240 million, comprising electricity, refined petroleum and fertilizers.
Benin exports to Nigeria seed oils, palm oil and construction vehicles, valued around $21.2 million. For smuggled rice, many border communities survive on the commodity from Benin Republic. On designated Wednesdays, when men of the Nigerian Customs decide to look the other way, hundreds of vehicles congregate at Sango Ota, Ogun State, to discharge rice. It would be a colossal economic loss to forfeit that trade, even though it is illegal.
Had the coup succeeded, retail price of rice would have gone haywire, with serious knock-on effect on inflation numbers. In assisting to save ECOWAS from experiencing another coup, President Tinubu acted courageously.
Coups and rumours of coups
Experts in politics and international relations are contemplating the reawakening of coups, and whether the pattern has come to stay. The one thing that is sure for now, is that lack of good governance is the major motivation for coup plotters. The case of Guinea Bissau was as confounding as it was bizarre. The testimony of credible sources, including former President Goodluck Jonathan, was that the deposed leader, Umaru Sissoco Embalo, staged his own ouster a few hours to losing a presidential election.
Whatever was responsible for Embalo’s loss of faith, in case that was what happened, the consensus opinion across platforms suggests that democracy is not delivering good governance in many African countries. The expectations of the people far surpass the miserly offering by democratic governments. The situation is compounded by mind-boggling corruption perpetrated by the political class.
The African Development Bank (AfDB), reported in 2024 that an estimated $10 billion is drained annually from African economies, diverting funding for crucial sectors of healthcare, education and manufacturing. Poverty fueled by corruption is the cause of political instability in many countries. It undermines democracy and sets the stage for the next insurrection.
The panacea for coups in ECOWAS and Africa is good governance. When the people are fed up, the entire ECOWAS army may not stop them.
The earlier we embraced that truth, the better.
