Hopefully, their ‘prediction’ has failed!
THERE is hardly any doubt that the United States of America has made outstanding contributions to the world, especially in the area of technology. However, their penchant for “mischief” is equally awesome. They have sponsored the overthrow of governments they were opposed to and their greatest achievement in mischief was the collapse of the Soviet Union, their most feared historical rival in the quest for world domination.
Thus, when a prediction or suggestion was made sometime in 2005 by an American Think Tank that the Federal Republic of Nigeria could collapse by 2015, there were not a few Nigerians who took it seriously. Nigerians talked openly of the “American prediction”, and there were sadly those who wished it to manifest.
There is the saying by the Yoruba, roughly translated, that the testicles of the ram could be swinging here and there but would not fall off. This saying is applicable to Nigeria, not least because of the challenges that the nation has been confronted with in recent years – challenges which undoubtedly brought doubts of survival to even the most ardent patriot of the Nigerian state.
First, there was this still ongoing Boko Haram insurgency in the North-East of Nigeria. The Boko Haram insurgency has been the most deadly challenge facing Nigeria since the Civil War of 1967-70. Boko Haram was initially perceived to be intended against Christians by Islamic fanatics, but the “Movement” has since revealed itself to be a terrorist organisation against virtually everybody or anything decent. Both Christians and Muslims have been at the receiving end of its atrocities. Boko Haramism has been described as a serious political and social problem emanating from the corruption and injustice in the Nigerian system.
Second, what has been some kind of a nuisance organisation appellated the Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) – a creation of the tyranny of Sani Abacha – received a major boost when thousands of Igbo youths began to openly demonstrate in favour of separation. The demonstrations began shortly after the presidential election of May 2015 which swept the corrupt and inept Jonathan administration out of power. The Igbo who were assumed as having been prominent actors in the six years of Goodluck Jonathan’s presidency were assumed to be protesting against marginalisation in the current dispensation.
Of course, the issue of “marginalisation” cannot be swept under the carpet, and improvements in our federal relations must be an ongoing process. There can never be peace in a system where one group perceives itself as playing a second role to other(s). The underlying factors leading to a revival of an event which once claimed hundreds of thousands of human lives must not be ignored; the search for peace, peaceful co-existence, and a balanced federation, must always be the priority of any government in our type of federation.
Historically, Igbo leadership has played a pivotal role in the survival of the Nigerian federation. Who can ever forget the centralising roles played by the great Nnamdi Azikiwe in ensuring unity in Nigeria, in an era when the other members of our historical triumvirate – Sir Ahmadu Bello far more than Chief Obafemi Awolowo – tended more towards their regions of origin? Except in a nation where the study of history has become unimportant, who also can forget that Igbo leadership were once more disposed towards unitary government not least because of their assumption that unitarism promoted national unity?
The psychological scar of the Civil War will be there for a very long time; however, the redemption of inter-group affections can be helped with a deliberate policy of ensuring that the successor to Muhammadu Buhari, as President of the Nigerian federation, would be a Nigerian citizen of Igbo origin. As one unapologetic advocate of a rotational presidency, that is the position I shall be supporting in a future debate over the issue.
Meanwhile, we must protect the unity and territorial integrity of our federation. While freedoms of speech and association are the essential components of democracy, such freedoms do not extend beyond the boundaries of constitutionality. It is treason for any one or group to engage in an open campaign for the collapse of our federation; it can only be an irresponsible government that will condone such an irresponsibility.
• Dr. Akinola wrote from Oxford, United Kingdom.
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8 Comments
You have not said anything. I thought you will concentrate your piece on the ‘prediction’ and why it failed or why it nearly succeeded. Then i think you will also address the Think-Tank clarification about the prediction, to be fair to the Americans. At any rate i think the prediction served a useful purpose because it enabled us to be careful and watchful to prevent its actualization and fulfilment. The 2015 election was indeed a dangerous bend which could have brought that woe upon us but God answered our prayers. I think we should give it to the Americans that they saw that conflict spot even before we saw it and before our experts. It does not mean that they wanted Nigeria to break.
Come to think of it, the break- up of Nigeria is no blessing to America because the massive and enormous refugee crisis will be too much for the world to tackle which will eventually overwhelm the UN and also America. The defunct Soviet Union was a different case because it was a superpower. Nigeria is not and Nigeria is not in competition with America and not ideologically opposed to her. It would indeed be a stupid American leader who wanted Nigeria to break. The role played by Americans ensured a hitch-free election in 2015 and their pressure ensured Jonathan to concede defeat. If they wanted Nigeria to break why would they be striving for a free and rancour-free election?
I have not categorically said America wanted to break Nigeria, and neither did I attribute the so-called prediction to the American government. I have merely said Nigerians feared for the worst because a prediction or suggestion was made in America.What I was trying to emphasise in this article is that the fear of disintegration may not have been over yet, not least because of the agitations coming from Igbo youths.In this regard, I have called for some pertinent issues to be addressed. Any way, thanks for your informed comment which has compelled me to make a clarification here.
My regards.
You are worthy of your education. It is rare to see reactions like yours these days. Some so-called educated people do nothing but abuse those they disagree with – all in the name of free speech. I am edified.
Highly commendable.
Moses Oludele Idowu, Amazingly you & the writer Dr Anthony Akinola seem to have agreed on one thing & that is not to give any credit to our ex-president Goodluck Jonathan. According to Moses Oludele ” The role played by Americans ensured a hitch-free election in 2015 and their pressure ensured Jonathan to concede defeat” so all credits goes to Americans. The writer wrote “The demonstrations began shortly after the presidential election of May 2015 which swept the corrupt and inept Jonathan administration out of power.” thereby sadly describing our ex-president as corrupt & inept.
However, I would like to note here very briefly that we all have our pros & cons & if such negative adjectives could be used, I believe we should also be courageous enough to admit the pros of the man in question here ex-president GEJ & give him some credit as well. The international community could not have adopted to uplift GEJ with his present portfolio if he were indeed corrupt & inept. I do not know of any Looting allegations on GEJ except on those to whom he delegated duties who abused the trust by acting against public interest. Obviously you cant blame the president for trusting his appointees. If Obama were Nigerian president & GEJ American president, I bet we would have opposite performances simply because in one country we have self functioning institutions whereas we don’t have them in the other country.
The Americans can not take credit for the ex-president’s GEJ’s democratic philosophy since 2011 in which he eschewed violence by saying that his political ambition is not worth the blood of any Nigerian, a complete departure from the do or die politics of previous president before him. GEJ held onto his philosophy till he conceded defeat & handed over to PMB. An unsual feat for most Nigerians who chose never to believe what GEJ said he would do. Guarantied press freedom & successful 2015 elections were all part of GEJ’s administration’s philosophy. The bar has been raised let’s watch further if it will be sustained even better?
FYI this singular +act amongst many others by GEJ, I believe is the reason God chose GEJ to lead Nigeria.
Lastly, the writer is based in the UK & should have learnt from the Scottish referendum held in the UK in 2014, so as not to make inflammatory statements such as “It is treason for any one or group to engage in an open campaign for the collapse of our federation; it can only be an irresponsible government that will condone such an irresponsibility.” This statement has the capacity to annoy & further aggravate the matter beyond control. PMB should learn from late president Yardua who negotiated peace with Niger delta for sake of Nigeria’s progress. The only way that PMB can nip this matter in the bud is by jaw jaw not war war, negotiation & referendum. As the writer noted ” Historically, Igbo leadership has played a pivotal role in the survival of the Nigerian federation.” I believe that most Igbos would vote No! in the referendum
I have replied your comment above.
Endy, we are not denying Jonathan any credit for whatever might be due to him. His elections were actually better than the previous elections under the PDP dispensation. No one can take this away from him. Certainly i do not discountenance what he has achieved by the concession and i believe neither Dr Akinola would do the same.
However you missed it by disagreeing with Akinola for describing Jonathan’s government as ‘inept and corrupt.’ His government actually was. May be you have not read about the Armsgate or Dasukigate but there is no way that Jonathan can claim that he was unaware of the final destination of the $2.1b collected by Dasuki from CBN. iF he was aware and he sanctioned it then he was hopelessly corrupt and a disaster. To divert money for arms into prayer and electioneering at a time when Nigerian soldiers were dying at the front due to want of ammunition is the height of criminality and wickedness.If Jonathan was not aware that the money was diverted then he was incompetent. If a man authorized a whopping sum of that magnitude for a purpose and he failed to find out what happened then that man is worse than useless. Akinola was right that Jonathan’s government was indeed inept and corrupt. Except someone is a saboteur and an enemy of Nigeria or has lost his moral compass i dont see how anyone can look at that government and come to a different verdict. Dasukigate is just the first, other cans will soon be opened and then you will see that Jonathan government was worse than a tsunami and only God saved this nation from that most incompetent and corrupt and inept administration
We will review and take appropriate action.