Good morning, Mr President. I have had cause to congratulate our gallant men and women under the leadership of General Christopher Musa, Chief of Defence Staff, who are engaging with the insurgents and terrorists in a firefight. This credit invariably goes to you as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. Again, I say well-done to the gallant officers and soldiers.

Regardless of the ongoing effort to rid the country of terrorists undermining our sovereignty, the theatre seems to be widening in ways that are overstretching our armed forces. The circle of insurgents taking over our ungoverned spaces is expanding: From Boko Haram, to Islamic State of West Africa (ISWAP), Ansaru, Lakurawa (affiliated to the Islamic State Sahel Province operating in Mali, Niger, and the Kebbi and Sokoto states of Nigeria), and the Mahmuda group in Kwara State that are occupying spaces with alarming ferocity. Killings and kidnappings have not reduced. The statistics coming from Benue and Plateau, and Kwara are galling. A majority of the enemies of our country are aliens from other African countries whose unfettered entry into our space was facilitated by partisans of your party in 2015.

In Kwara State, most of its southern towns and villages have been overrun by terrorists. These include Ologomo Town, Ajegunle Town, Agban Town, Alebe Town, Owode Town, Alasoro Town, Alawan Town, Bankole Town, Oreke Town, Ganmu Town, Babanla Town, Ayetoro Town, Budo Town, Arifowomo Town, Apata Olosun Town, Oreke Isale Town, Sagbe Town, Olohun Tele Town, Oke-Ode Town, and Ilu-Agunjin. Town.

While the state is intensifying its efforts in the fight against insurgency, the insurgents are also strengthening their fighting forces. Recent reports reveal a closing of ranks between factions of the Boko Haram, especially the Bakoura Dogo faction and the Islamic State of West Africa (ISWAP).

In all this, a pattern is emerging that the resurgence is tied to illegal mining. In Plateau State, towns where most of the killings have occurred are littered with tin dust driving home the point that it is all about land grab for illegal mining. This is perhaps why the Caleb Mutfwang, the governor of the state noted that, “this is not an isolated conflict between farmers and herders…what we are witnessing is a systematic and premeditated campaign.” He also insinuated outside sponsors of the killings benefit by mining vanquished communities. Therefore, it goes beyond the commonplace narrative of farmer-herder conflict. A look at the epicentres of the crisis shows the killings are happening in states with rich mineral deposits in the North-west and Middle Belt. The slaughter in Niger state has been linked to Chinese-allied miners who are associates of the Dogo Gide terrorist group in the state. To be sure, it is one of local collaboration with foreign powers.

These actors must be dealt with. This requires a great deal of political will to accomplish. Mining of gold, tin, lithium, and other vital minerals has now taken the front-burner, in terms of causative factors. Intriguing accounts from Oke-Ode, one of the attacked communities in Kwara state, states that the invaders forewarned the inhabitants to leave. They later found that their communities were being dug up in search for precious metals. This is a venture between local and foreign actors. The Chinese and French have featured constantly in the narrative. Mr President, we are on the road to Congo DRC. Oh, what a fate to befall the hope of the Black race!

Stakeholders of the Nigerian state must act decisively and collectively to root out this evil now. These incursions into our geographical space demand urgent reinforcement of security and strategic action. The proliferation of ungoverned spaces and ill-equipped security forces must be addressed immediately, and the presence of Trojan horses swiftly countered. Time is of the essence—mobilise all necessary resources and political will to confront and eradicate this threat.

Mr President, what is to be done? Our armed forces are small and ill-equipped in relation to the population. Managers of violence believe that an increase in the number may not necessarily be the answer, but perhaps the application of the Rumsfeld Doctrine. Donald Rumsfeld was Secretary of Defence under President George W. Bush, 2001-2006. A naval officer, he had previously served in that capacity under President Gerald Ford, 1975-1977.

In the wake of the September 11, 2001, attack on the United States, he proposed the reform of the US Army expressed as a smart, nimble formation but well equipped to stalk the enemies of the state, in other words, threats to national security. In practice, this involves force readiness and the cut in the amount of maintaining forces in a theatre by the use of Light Armoured Vehicles (LAVs) to scout for enemies, followed by destruction through airstrikes. Beyond this, liberated areas need to be stabilised through a civilian police force.

Here, I suggest an increase in the police force (perhaps, state police with a carefully woven matrix of democratic control to avoid subversion from state governors acting as emperors). Amotekun corps in the South-west points the way. So, consider recruiting more men for the police force. Deal with the sponsors in ways that inspire deterrence. Confront the external forces through a soft power approach.

Those who want access to our minerals can be officially licensed to mine and refine minerals in Nigeria, thereby creating employment opportunities. If you believe that Nigeria is in a war, then we must employ alongside other measures, namely, public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, and legal warfare, and a concrete and persistent fight against poverty. We must win the discursive space against insurgents, and we must win the war against poverty.

Lastly, Mr President, rivet your attention on insecurity at the moment rather than the diversionary campaign for 2027 election, which you can win, God willing, through a positive governance outcome.

Prof. Akhaine is of the Department of Political Science, Lagos State University.