Good morning, Mr President. I am back from my recess. During my recess, many things happened that deserved some comments. First, my recess allowed me to pay my academic debt by delivering my professorial inaugural lecture. I delivered the 103rd Inaugural lecture of the Lagos State University. I employed the lecture to review the state of democracy in Africa in the context of the third wave, a global wave of democracy that began in 1974 with the end of the Estado Novo regime of Marcelo Gaetano in Portugal.

That wave of democracy caught up with Africa in the late 1980s, a period that Nzongola-Ntalaja, my friend, has periodised as the age of democratic renewal. My analysis revealed a mixed bag of progress and decline, especially improvement in the democratic process, and institutional and political culture. It would interest you to know that Nigeria has yet to pass the ‘two turn-over test’ electorally.

According to Samuel Huntington, once described by Professor Issa Shivji, a State Department scholar, a two-turn-over test is successful when in a democratising country, an incumbent is defeated by an opposition party that assumed power, and the latter is subsequently defeated by the party in opposition in two electoral cycles. For example, Ghana, and Benin Republic have passed this threshold.

Unfortunately, in Nigeria, despite over two and half decades of democratic experiment, Nigeria has only alternated power once, forcing the conclusion that Nigerian democracy has only grown quantitatively and not qualitatively.  Indeed, the Nigerian democracy exhibits four pathologies. Identity politics has endured to the detriment of the polity; elections have not been free and fair; and corruption has been a major scourge while the electoral process is heavily monetised to discourage men and women of goodwill from contesting elective positions in the country.

We need statesmen who will strengthen our institutions and ensure the sanctity of the thumb. Perhaps you can play a pioneering role in this regard. The prevailing material conditions, if not improved significantly, our country and the continent in general, cannot be taken off the path of state militarism, known as coup d’état. Mr President, please read the full text of the lecture. It will be helpful as you navigate the quicksand of our political environment.

Mr President, another major concern is the leadership crisis in the Lagos State House of Assembly. While the matter has been taken to the judiciary for review, the crisis is underpinned by the issue of probity that cannot be wished away. The problem is compounded by your stance on power distribution in the state.

The basic issue can be resolved by the legislators themselves, not by contrivances that seek to undercut their powers, as the guts of democracy. In your strong opinion about power distribution in the state, especially the vacuum that the exit of the ousted speaker would create, there is one way out.

Allow the beneficiary of the change, Rt. Honourable Mojisola Meranda, to serve out the two years left of their tenure, the balance of power, can be restored after the 2027 election. This way, you will not have hurt the ego of the legislators who moved against the former speaker. In other words, you would have avoided alienating them. Do not forget that you lost Lagos in the last general election. The stakes would be higher in 2027 given the burgeoning opposition forces in the country. A word would be enough for the wise in this matter.

Internationally, there is a bull in a China shop. The United States, a leading global power, militarily and economically, is currently being led by Donald Trump, a transactional leader, an imperialist, who believes in strong-arm tactics and a zero-sum game.

The words of Jeffry Sachs uttered before the European Parliament, are instructive. Sachs while offering his views on the Russian-Ukraine war, Sachs noted that it is dangerous to be America’s enemy and also fatal to be its friend.

Nigeria needs to be pro-active as a leading country in Africa to activate a think–tank to articulate for Nigeria, a blueprint to handle the bully; it should look towards multilateralism. It should not be business as usual. Professor Bolaji Akinyemi has issued the first caution: say nothing for now; avoid a confrontational approach.

The leaders of those countries that have initially called Trump’s bluff are all going to Washington with their tails curled behind them, for rapprochement. We need to weigh Nigeria’s interest vis-a-vis that of the United States. The Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, with Akinyemi as head of its Board, and Professor Eghosa Osaghae as Director-General, my suggestion is realisable.

Best wishes for a productive new week, Mr President.

Akhaine is a Professor of Political Science at the Lagos State University.