On the escalation of Russian-Ukraine crisis

Promptings by the United States and the United Kingdom that translated into long-range military strikes by Ukraine deep on Russia underscore a closer proximity to not only worsening the war in that region but also raising the stake for deployment of non-conventional warfare, including nuclear armaments. None of the possibilities portends a desire for peaceful co-existence that the world craves.

The effects of failure to exercise caution on the part of the warring countries and their allies can be devastating to the countries involved, with huge collateral damage to the rest of the world. It is therefore imperative for world leaders to intervene urgently to stop the rapid slide into a preventable global anarchy.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict appears to be escalating to dangerous peaks. Recently, the collective West, backer of Ukraine in the Russian-Ukraine crisis, let loose its reins on weapons supply to Ukraine and their deployment in battle with Russian forces. Specifically, the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) authorised Ukraine to use American “Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS)” and the UK’s Storm Shadow long-range missiles for strikes within Russian territory. The West claimed it was a response to the Russian deployment of North Korean forces by Russia in its Kursk region.

However, observers and Russia viewed the development as an escalation. Russia, without a doubt, said the development would require a corresponding response. Ukraine wasted no time in attacking Russian territories with long-range weapons. Russia wasted no time in hitting the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on November 21. It used the RS-26 Rubezh Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), the first of such use in the ongoing conflict.

It is however noteworthy, that following the West’s decision to allow Ukraine to employ its long-range weapons to strike deep inside Russia. Russia has had to update its nuclear doctrine.

President Vladimir Putin has approved changes setting out new conditions under which the country would consider using its arsenal, meaning an attack from a non-nuclear state, if backed by a nuclear power, will be treated as a joint assault on Russia. The broad implications of this new position bring the world closer to the brink of nuclear catastrophe.

Amidst global concern for peace, the Ukrainian leadership is in a conversation of requesting the Americans to supply it with Tomahawk missiles while some elements in the West are in backdoor discussion of re-arming Ukraine with nuclear capability.

With a few months to go, we believe President Biden’s authorisation of the use of American long-range weapons in Russian territory is unnecessary. Giving more arms to Ukraine is not the way to go, and it is not the path to peace. Observers reasoned that Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House casts a dark cloud on the prospect of support for Ukraine.

Thus, President Biden is desirous of strengthening the hands of Ukraine in peace negotiations. In this respect, Biden is about to rush through Congress an additional supply of about $725 million in arms to Ukraine, covering the delivery of land mines, drones, Stinger missiles, and ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). Retired Lieutenant-Colonel Roman Shkurlatov, Chairman of the Officers of Russia public organisation, would corroborate the point above.
He noted: “The enemy ignored our previous warning. It carried out a strike and did so on purpose, which means that the Western parties of the war are raising the stakes, increasing the degree of escalation. They seemingly want the conflict to reach a completely new level by January. This is being done with [US President-elect] Donald Trump’s peaceful rhetoric in mind.”

In this entire gambit, it is the Ukrainians that are being killed and not the Americans, a realisation that ought to have dawned on someone somewhere. Besides, if a wider war starts, the entire world would suffer, and there would be no island of exclusion. It is high time that world leaders stepped in to rein insanity.

President Putin should exercise restraint and wait for President Trump who has made the prompt resolution of the Russian-Ukraine conflict an electoral promise.

As the world yearns for peace, some in the Intel community believe that in the current situation, dialogue with Russia would be better than no communication at all to prevent further escalation, though there are doubts about Russian reception. In the same vein, China through its foreign ministry has expressed concern over nuclear rhetoric. The Ministry noted that “China is deeply concerned about the nuclear risks caused by the Ukrainian conflict. It has repeatedly stated that the use of nuclear weapons is unacceptable and that nuclear war should not be unleashed. It urged all sides “to remain calm and restrained and to work together to de-escalate the situation through dialogue and consultations aimed at reducing strategic risks.”

So far, the conflict has had dire economic consequences on the world, especially Europe which depends on grains and gas supply from the belligerents. American and European sanctions against Russia, especially its energy sector have hit Europe hardest. Currently, gas prices in Europe have skyrocketed, surpassing $540 per 1,000 cubic meters. Energy experts note that this trend is not likely to change.  An all-out war would also impact many countries, including, Nigeria.

There is no doubt that the world is sitting on the precipice of a nuclear disaster. War must not be allowed to break out between Russia and the West. Cheering, however, is the news that President Donald Trump is talking with the Austrian Chancellor, Karl Nehammer, on the need to host a peace summit on the Russian-Ukraine conflict. The world looks on with understandable trepidation to these talks.