Fashola and the rocket science of power-Part 1

True to his hypothesis that public utility administration is not rocket science, erstwhile Lagos State governor and current Minister of Power, Works and Housing, Babatunde Fashola, has sought to demystify the electricity generation and supply process. In a series of public statements, notably the Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) platform in the print media, he has tried to enlighten the public on the intricacies of the process and the need for their understanding and patience.

In his multi-focused outings, he traced the poor performance in the sector to long periods of neglect, unrealistic tariffs, low investments, inadequate gas supply and hiccups in the implementation of the 2005 reforms that opened up the sector to private participation. He admitted that though the nation was on course, the road to stable electricity supply was strewn with technical, financial and cultural challenges that must be surmounted.

Expectedly, he justified the February 2016 increase of about 46 per cent in tariff that led to the “more market reflective” price regime. He was profuse with optimism that the new tariff – a subject of contention between the Discos and organised labour – would enhance performance in the sector and encourage fresh investments.

The resistance by labour, the National Assembly motion against the tariff and the resultant court case (s) have largely been ignored by the Discos who have since enforced the new rates. Faced with the option of disconnection and long drawn-out tussle with the monopolistic structure of power supply, both corporate and individual customers seem to have swallowed the bitter pill of higher bills for less electricity. Generation has dropped from about 4,500 megawatts at the time of the increase to about 1,500 megawatts four months after.

In late April when Fashola had the first FAQ platform, he expressed hope that generation and supply could increase in “geometric proportions if we all do the right things.” He claimed then that in less than one year, generation had moved from 4,000 megawatts to 5,000 megawatts and could increase to 7,000 megawatts and by additional “leaps” of 2,000 mw. But, in apparent response to the current realities of dwindling generation and bouts of system failure, he now speaks more of “incremental steady and eventual uninterrupted power supply improvements.” It would thus seem that “the right things” have not been done by all. Electricity generation has dropped by almost 70 per cent from about 4,500mw to 1,5000mw in the second half of the Buhari government first year in office.

The significant drop in generation which affects the entire power chain has been blamed on renewed militancy in the Niger Delta. A new militant group, Niger Delta Avengers (NDA), has owned up to the blowing up of gas pipelines and other oil installations in the region. The group threatens to blow up more installations in defiance of the efforts of the armed forces to halt their operations.

It is yet to be seen who is winning the war – the NDA or Nigerian Armed Forces. Blown-up pipelines cut gas supplies to the turbines which constitute a large chunk of the energy mix on which Fashola’s promises are predicated. Even when reprieve comes, the repair of the pipelines takes time and costs a lot of money. Other means of boosting generation – hydro, coal, solar and wind – are either performing poorly or not at all feasible. Age and poor maintenance have taken their toll on the few hydro stations and limited their contributions to the national grid.
To be continued.