By Magnus Onyibe

Continued from yesterday

Minister Adelabu, justifying continued government ownership of TCN, announced plans to unbundle the Transmission Company of Nigeria into two entities: the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) and the Transmission Service Provider (TSP). According to him, the objective is to promote operational clarity, transparency, and value creation through improved corporate governance.

However, to me — and to many Nigerians thinking beyond conventional boundaries — this appears to be a misguided move. The fundamental problem with TCN is bureaucracy and corruption, features often associated with government-controlled enterprises. Splitting TCN into two agencies still under state control cannot make it more efficient. It will only create duplication, confusion, and further inefficiency.

In other words, fix the transmission bottleneck, do not multiply it.

Nigeria’s history is clear: government-run enterprises are typically riddled with inefficiency, redundancy, and corruption. That reality led to the creation of the Technical Committee on Privatisation and Commercialisation (TCPC), later transformed into the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE).

Yet here we are, re-entrenching government control where privatisation should be deepened.
A quick reminder: the four NNPC-owned refineries remain comatose despite years of turnaround maintenance — an unfortunate but useful lesson.

Given this precedent, the government should not renew partnership contracts with the 11 DisCos that have failed to meet expectations. They should be dissolved, and alongside TCN assets, transferred to existing GenCos (currently estimated at 23 operational firms with a combined capacity of 13,461MW) and other competent investors. These entities should then be assigned specific zones to manage, thus allowing a single operator to oversee generation, transmission, and distribution within each region.

Nigeria already has six geopolitical zones, a ready framework for restructuring the electricity market.

Some notable GenCos include Mainstream Energy (operator of Kainji, Jebba, and Zungeru hydros), Afam, Alaoji NIPP, Azura-Edo, Egbin, Geregu, Odukpani, Shiroro, and Trans-Amadi, among others. With this spread, it is feasible to allocate zones to capable operators who can seamlessly manage the full electricity value chain.

This is the norm in Europe, North America, and many parts of Asia where free-market systems thrive. In contrast, state-controlled utilities are common in monarchical or communist economies like parts of the Middle East and China. Nigeria has officially transitioned from a command-and-control economy to a market-driven one. So why the hesitation in liberalising transmission?

The argument that electricity is a security-sensitive asset and must remain state-controlled no longer holds water. Telecommunications — equally sensitive — was fully liberalised 25 years ago with no negative security consequences. On the contrary, it has flourished, creating indigenous champions like Globacom, owned by Chief Mike Adenuga, which is operating beyond Nigeria’s borders and helping the country earn foreign exchange. Why should we accept fear-mongering in the power sector when liberalisation succeeded in telecoms?

Globally, ownership models vary. France’s EDF and Norway’s Statnett remain state-controlled; the U.K. and U.S. systems are largely private. China’s State Grid is state-owned, while Japan and South Korea maintain mixed systems. The rule is clear: no one-size-fits-all. Pragmatism must guide policy.

Nigeria followed global liberalisation trends when it reformed banking in the 1990s, enabling indigenous entrepreneurs like Jim Ovia (Zenith) and the founders of GTBank- Fola Adeola and late Tayo Aderinokun to reshape the industry, now dominant across Africa and expanding globally. Tony Elumelu’s United Bank For Africa, UBA, already flourishing across Africa’s business landscape, is already present in Europe, the USA, and the Middle East, including Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, UAE and poised to open a branch jn Saudi Arabia. Electricity reform should follow a similar trajectory.

Instead, the government appears determined to retain control by splitting TCN — an action that contradicts global best practice and perpetuates inefficiency.

Furthermore, Nigeria is lagging in renewable energy despite enormous potential in solar, wind, and hydro. Countries like Ethiopia 100 per cent, DRC 100 per cent, and Eswatini 96 per cent have leveraged PPPs to scale renewable adoption. Nigeria must do the same if it intends to unlock projected benefits — including IRENA’s forecast that renewables could provide 60 per cent of Nigeria’s energy needs by 2050.

Rather than clinging to outdated control models, we should be developing mini-grids and decentralised systems to bypass an overstretched, outdated national grid that collapses under loads above 4-5GW, leaving 7-12GW stranded.

Overcoming energy poverty is essential to achieving Nigeria’s ambition of becoming a $1 trillion economy, like Indonesia, our peer in the 1960s. The current economy effectively operates only between 6 a.m. and 6 p.m., running at half capacity due to unreliable electricity. Opening the economy 24/7 would unlock productivity , double our GDP, currently at the number four (4) position in Africa, a little over $118 billion behind South Africa’s at $410.34, Egypt’s $337.34, and Algeria’s $268.89 accelerate industrialisation.

With adequate and stable electricity, Nigeria’s GDP can even be quadrupled when the existing factories and even more factories are set up and running in full capacity, thereby increasing productivity in the economy, such that our country can reclaim its prime position not only as Africa’s most populous nation but also the largest economy on the continent.

Underscoring the critical role electricity plays in economic development, China became “the world’s factory” after achieving surplus electricity through mega-projects like the Three Gorges Dam. India expanded access and reliability through mini-grids. Nigeria must study and apply these lessons.

To remain trapped in perpetual darkness after 12 years of partial deregulation is unacceptable. Nigeria must declare an emergency in the power sector, dismantle outdated structures, liberalise transmission, encourage private investment, and embrace renewable solutions. Only then can we unlock economic potential, expand manufacturing, and drive sustainable growth.”

Incidentally, this is not the first time in the past decade that the federal government has been strategically intervening in the power sector. Like what the president just did last Friday, former President Muhamadu Buhari of blessed memory had also saddled his chief of staff, Mallam Abba Kyari, with the responsibility of working with Siemens of Germany to deliver a stable electricity supply in Nigeria.

The task was unaccomplished before he suddenly passed away, and the project is still ongoing.

The diference between the initiative by the last administration driven by Abba kyari to boost electricity supply is that while the effort was a one man show driven by then Chief of Staff to the president, in the current dispensation, under the watch of president Tinubu, a multi discipline approach, through setting up of a committee comprising of ministries, departments and agencies led by Chief of staff Gbajabiamila to tackle the seemingly intractable challenge of electricity power poverty hobbling the progress and development of our country.

Given the compostion of the current handicapped electricity power sector rescue team, it may not be too hasty to spread the optimism that help is on the way and encourage Nigerians to renew their hope that the long sought transition from darkness to light is on track.
Concluded.

Onyibe is an entrepreneur, public policy analyst. He wrote from Lagos.