By Moses Taaboo

The proposed resumption of oil production in Ogoniland could provide the Ogoni people with significant political leverage in their longstanding quest for state creation, but only if the return to oil production is tied to clear political, economic and environmental safeguards.

This is the central argument of a paper titled “The Ogoni Political Game for State Creation: Would Oil Resumption Benefit the Federal Government of Nigeria or the Ogoni People?”, authored by Moses Savior Taaboo and submitted to KAGOTE Leadership and Stakeholders in August 2026.

It is my contention in the study that, under Nigeria’s existing constitutional and petroleum governance framework, the Federal Government would be the immediate and most significant institutional beneficiary of renewed oil production, followed by Rivers State and petroleum operators.

Notably, increased oil production would boost federal revenue, foreign exchange earnings, petroleum-sector investment and national production, while Rivers State would benefit from the constitutional derivation allocation applicable to oil-producing states.

However, Ogoni communities would not automatically receive a corresponding share of the petroleum wealth. Section 162 of the 1999 Constitution provides for a derivation allocation of not less than 13 per cent of revenue accruing to the Federation Account from natural resources, but the benefit is channelled through the oil-producing state rather than directly to individual oil-producing communities.

The study further examines the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, which established Host Communities Development Trusts funded by a statutory contribution from petroleum operators. It notes that operators are required to contribute three per cent of relevant annual operating expenditure to the Trusts.

However, the paper stresses that the three per cent mechanism does not amount to ownership of petroleum resources, resource control or statehood, describing it instead as a development mechanism linked to petroleum operations.

Environmental concerns
The study warns that the economic benefits of oil production must be considered alongside the environmental costs historically borne by Ogoni communities.

It references the 2011 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) assessment, which documented extensive contamination of land, groundwater, surface water, vegetation and other ecosystems following decades of petroleum operations in Ogoniland.

The assessment examined more than 200 locations, surveyed 122 kilometres of pipeline rights-of-way, reviewed more than 5,000 medical records and consulted more than 23,000 people.

The paper therefore argues that any decision to resume oil production should take into account environmental remediation, livelihood restoration, healthcare, compensation and long-term ecological monitoring rather than focusing solely on projected petroleum revenue.

Oil resumption as political leverage
Rather than viewing renewed oil production solely as an economic or industrial project, the study proposes that Ogoni leaders treat it as a potential bargaining instrument.

It recommends that oil resumption be preceded by negotiations covering environmental restoration, transparent environmental assessments, independent monitoring, community participation, legally enforceable development commitments, protection of farming and fishing livelihoods, compensation procedures and community grievance mechanisms.

The paper also proposes employment quotas, local contracting, scholarships, technical training, infrastructure, healthcare, water supply, agricultural and fishing restoration, electricity, technology centres and community development funds as possible benefits to be negotiated.

State creation remains a constitutional process
On the agitation for an Ogoni State, the study cautions that oil production alone cannot create a new state.

It points to Section 8 of the 1999 Constitution, which establishes a demanding procedure involving support from relevant members of the National Assembly, the State House of Assembly and local government councils, followed by a referendum and further approval at the state and federal levels.

Ogoni therefore needs political unity, engagement with Rivers State, National Assembly support, referendum backing and broader national political alliances to advance the state-creation project.

It further contends that renewed oil production could increase the economic significance of a future Ogoni State because petroleum production within a new state would potentially establish a stronger relationship between oil production, derivation revenue and political administration.

Call for unified negotiating framework
The paper identifies political fragmentation as one of the major threats to the Ogoni state-creation project.

It recommends an inclusive negotiating framework bringing together traditional rulers, elected representatives, youth and women groups, civil society organisations, environmental experts, professionals, academics, political organisations and representatives of the different Ogoni kingdoms.

The objective should be to establish a common negotiating position while allowing room for political differences.

The study proposes a five-phase strategy for achieving statehood: internal consolidation, development of an economic case for viability, constitutional mobilisation, formation of a national coalition and federal negotiation.

An economically viable Ogoni State should not rely solely on petroleum, but should build its future around agriculture, fisheries, manufacturing, logistics, maritime activities, technology, education, tourism, environmental restoration, renewable energy and petroleum.

‘Oil should be part of the negotiation’
The paper concludes that oil resumption is neither automatically beneficial nor harmful to Ogoni, arguing that its impact would depend largely on the terms under which production returns.

It warns that a return to the historical model of extraction could reproduce previous problems, while a framework linking oil production to political, environmental and economic reforms could create a new social contract.

The study identifies five conditions it considers essential for meaningful long-term benefits: environmental justice, fiscal justice, political justice, economic justice and institutional justice.

It argues that Ogoni should not frame the state-creation demand simply around the presence of oil, but should make a broader case based on representation, development, environmental accountability, political participation and resource governance.

In its final assessment, the paper states that oil resumption should not mark the end of Ogoni’s political negotiations but should form part of them.

“The greatest mistake would be to exchange long-term political leverage for short-term economic benefits,” the study argues, maintaining that the federal government’s interest in renewed petroleum production could instead be used to negotiate a new social, economic, environmental and political compact for Ogoni.

In conclusion, the ultimate objective should not merely be to return oil production to Ogoni, but to ensure that the region does not remain politically and economically disadvantaged after oil returns.

Professor Taaboo is a United States-based technology management professional, cybersecurity scholar, educator, and aerospace manufacturing leader. email:[email protected]