The diplomatic row between the United States, Ukraine and by extension Europe has become a deep rift since President Donald Trump took office about six weeks ago. America’s foreign policy is seeing a dramatic shift, away from the norm which then questions America’s global reliability by its allies. In the meantime, England and France have taken responsibility and demonstrating leadership for the rest of Europe as they can recognize that there is a shift in the geopolitical landscape. The week for President Donald Trump had started with a visit from President Emmanuel Macron of France and subsequently the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Sir Keir Starmer. They both had very warm meetings with Mr. President Trump however it was not meant to be for President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine when he made that all important visit to Washington to sign the minerals deal that is expected to bring an end to the war between Ukraine and Russia which has lingered for three years with a view to bring lasting peace to Ukraine with guarantees for the security of its people and its sovereignty. The reception that President Zelensky received made things become quickly clear to him that President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D Vance weren’t ready to give the security guarantees that Kyiv had inserted as a caveat for any minerals deal. The US president just wanted President Zelensky to accept a ceasefire deal which means nothing concrete as far as the Ukrainian president is concerned based on his experience with President Vladimir Putin.
The meeting which was an opportunity for Mr. Trump and Mr. Zelensky to seek common grounds and adopt a path to lasting peace ended awkwardly and abruptly after that heated exchange between them. The joint press conference that was supposed to hold after the meeting was cancelled and the deal was not signed. An emotional and desperate Zelensky determined to sign a deal to save his country left the White House disappointed. It was a situation of bad blood between both men that culminated that Friday afternoon, and it ended in what I consider a diplomatic meltdown.
The atmosphere between President Zelensky and President Trump had become tensed in days and weeks leading up to the meeting. President Donald Trump had labelled President Zelensky “a dictator” weeks before. The Trump administration had also set up a US led peace talks with Russia in Riyadh in an effort to end the war in Ukraine. In that meeting Russia was the only party invited, with neither Ukraine nor European representatives with a seat at the table. Ukrainian President Zelensky in reacting said that his country would not accept any outcome from the talks since Kyiv did not take part in the meeting. That annoyed President Trump. In addition, when the minerals deal was first presented to President Zelensky in Munich by Vice President Vance and Senator Rubio, it was rejected saying he had no powers to sign such a deal without the parliament. President Trump also had accused Mr. Zelensky of starting the war with Russia. Zelensky in his response said the US president lives in a disinformation space. All these had become the basis for the open confrontation of both men in that meeting in the White House Oval office. It was clear both leaders have had some kind of animosity against each other however I did not expect to see a fall out in front of world press. “Come back when you’re ready for peace,” Trump wrote on social media as President Zelensky was leaving the White House. My view is that President Zelensky should have managed the tense atmosphere with a lot more caution. Moscow has perceived this as a big victory. The Kremlin can conclude that Kyiv has lost the support of its most powerful ally with the encouragement to push for more gains on the battlefield. Seeing the realities of America’s foreign policy direction, its credibility as a reliable ally is being questioned by its friends in Europe. For the Europeans this is a serious diplomatic crisis. President’s Trump bold approach to reshaping international relations has hit the Europeans as a curved ball they are confused on the best way to handle it. It has kept them scrambling and seeking for ways to reach a common ground and finding alignment because with Mr. Trump, European NATO members are not so sure anymore. They know how important it is to have the Americans committed to the alliance and so they are doing everything to keep America on its side.
In diplomacy, allies do not always align on issues and can sometimes disagree and that is not anything new however whatever differences leaders have based on their interests such disagreement do not happen in public but behind the scenes where there are no cameras. In this case it happened right in the presence of the media, and it was a difficult thing to watch. Mr. Zelensky headed to the UK after he left Washington. He has received and continue to receive tremendous support from his European counterparts. He was welcomed and reassured that they will stand with his country until sustainable peace returns.
As President Trump attempts to broker a peace deal, he has adopted his own methods and ways because it is not in America’s best interest for this war to continue endlessly. With Trump America cannot continue to fund this war, and allies of America must understand that. The approach of the US government is surprising to Ukraine, alien to its Europeans allies and unusual to observers around the world. To add more pressure on Zelensky and Europe, Trump has directed that all military aid to Ukraine and intelligence sharing be suspended in what many consider a catastrophic push and arm-twisting tactics to get Kyiv into peace negotiations with Moscow. “The president has been clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution,” a White House official stated. This puts Kyiv in a weakened position and emboldens Moscow. With this the Kremlin will negotiate from the position of strength even though they equally want this war to end quickly.
As things stand today, Ukraine is ready to sign the minerals deal but will be forced to make painful concessions and by so doing, the terms of the agreement will be tilted in favour of Russia. Ukraine in my view is expected to lose Crimea, lose a significant part of its eastern territory and sign off on the exploration deal of its rare minerals. In addition, Russia will not accept any peacekeeping force from Europe in Ukraine. Zelensky is willing to give anything for sustainable peace and have his country in a place where its sovereignty is not under constant threat. The Europeans consider the Russian government authoritarian, and that Trump must be careful when dealing with Putin. Trump however see Putin as a friend, and he is making effort to reestablish relationships of their both countries, but Moscow appears careful to publicly embrace the US government.
Just as I was concluding this, things began to move at a very fast pace. The US-Ukraine peace meeting in Saudi Arabia was held and Ukraine accepted the ceasefire proposal put together by the US. It was presented to the Russians with the hope that they will accept the proposalso as to have the peace plan move forward but the plan was not accepted by the Kremlin.
Putin appear to have smartly rejected Trump’s ceasefire proposal without outrightly saying no to it. Or would one say he has agreed in principle? He has not said no but has however presented stringent demands which will prolong negotiations. “The idea itself is correct, and we certainly support it,” Putin said. “How will these 30 days be used? He asked. To continue forced mobilisation in Ukraine? To supply weapons to Ukraine? … These are legitimate questions,” he said.“We need to discuss this with our American partners – perhaps a call with Donald Trump,” Putin added, thanking the US president for his involvement in the peace negotiations. The question that therefore presents itself is that is Putin ready for a ceasefire or playing for time?
In the final analysis, Zelensky needs President Trump to end this war and even if Russia decides to continue, he still needs him to continue fighting. Either way, Trump is a lifeline for his country as the US has become an indispensable player in Ukraine’s security today and for some time to come.
Uwem Samson Udom is a business service expert who is passionate about national and global affairs. He writes from Lagos and can be reached at [email protected]
