Every nation in the world must introspect on its development trajectory. A time of adversity often presents the best opportunity for serious-minded nations to adequately reflect on their missteps to make informed choices about a new pathway to self-renewal. The perilous time is here with our economy faltering, insecurity pervasive, hunger common to all, corruption endemic and widespread trust in government at its lowest ebb. Unemployment is at its highest level, and the respective high levels of poverty, misery /anguish are unprecedented.

Undoubtedly, while this may be a moment of depression, agony and despair for us as a nation, in reality, it may present us with the best opportunity to rebound, advance and record phenomenal progress. As espoused by Benjamin Disraeli, ‘there is no education like adversity.’

Henry Ford further states that ‘when everything seems to be going against you, remember that the airplane takes off against the wind, not with it.’ It is, therefore, up for us to seize this moment as a turning point in our history for our national rebirth and regeneration, or miss it and sink into an abyss of despair and hopelessness.

Nigeria embarked on its development trajectory in the 1950s through the mid-60s when she recorded impressive levels of growth in a state-led economy, driven by massive investment in education, health and other social and physical infrastructure. The economy was powered by the real sector.

The bureaucracy was strong, vibrant and development-oriented comparable to the best of its peers in the world. The consequence was that the Nigerian people recorded significant improvements in their living standards despite the tensions in the political space which, invariably, led to the collapse of the first republic and the enthronement of military administration.

The economy grew faster and better from 1970 through 1975 following enhanced revenue from oil and the consolidation of a state-driven economic policy. At a capital income of $1000 within this period and a double-digit economic growth, Nigeria outperformed countries such as India, Korea and the Asian Tigers, hence the expectation that by now, Nigeria should have risen to become a giant in the comity of nations.

Regrettably, our beloved nation has almost become a laughing stock, described, lately, in some jurisdictions as a failing state. The re-establishment of democracy since 1999 has not rekindled hope despite years of modest economic growth.

Perhaps, we would have avoided this alarming scenario if we had not rolled back the state progressively and incrementally beginning from the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) era of the mid-80s to date by repeatedly embracing the lie in neo-liberal policies, offered us by global institutions, as our fastest route to accelerated national development and shared prosperity.

The consequences are horrendous including decapitation of the state, accentuation of rent-seeking cum facilitation of state capture, and grand corruption in all its ramifications. Joseph Stiglitz, in ‘The Price of Inequality’, regards it as a blunder on our part in our failure to recognise that ‘there has been no successful large economy in which the government has not played an important role, and in the countries with the most rapid growth (such as China) and those with the highest standards of living (such as those in Scandinavia), the government plays an important role. Yet the prevailing ideology on the right is so strong that there continues to be a push for a small government, for contracting out government services and privatization and even resistance to regulation.’

The popular lie and acclamation in public policy discourse in Nigeria, popularised by agents of Western global institutions in the country, is that the government has no business engaging in business, hence the government should only provide an enabling environment while the private sector serves as the chief driver of growth. The fallacy of this proposition is evident in the United States of America. Its dysfunctionality is adequately elucidated by Stiglitz as ‘a state too constrained to provide the public goods-investments in infrastructure, technology and education – that would make for a vibrant economy and too weak to engage in the redistribution to create a fair society.’

He provided further evidence of failed neo-liberal policies of liberalisation/deregulation and privatisation in Mexico, the United Kingdom and the United States of America which are instructive. It is interesting to note that in countries where neo-liberal policies have accentuated growth, it has been devoid of equity.

The greatest mistake that we have been making in Nigeria is blindly following the Western model of development without appreciating the historical context of its rise and dominance anchored on slavery, colonial conquest, industrial revolution, scientific orientation and knowledge, a dominant military-industrial complex, exclusive control of the world’s financial architecture, as well as the global maritime domain, amongst others, which we are incapable of replicating.

Noteworthy is the alternative idea of a developmental state anchored on a balanced role between the state, markets and civil society, best exemplified by the giant strides of East Asian nations which used market mechanisms to orchestrate sustainable development and outpaced other regions of the world in higher rates of economic growth for a considerable length of time in a new realm of contested/ multiple modernities.

In our quest for a new economic order, we need to pay attention to the economic model of South Asian countries, widely acknowledged as the future of the world. The transformation of Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and subsequently Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam has been phenomenal. But the greatest wonder of them all is China which has rapidly transformed from a rural-based agrarian economy with low industrial input into the global leader in industrial production, and consumer market for oil, vehicles, and smartphones, amongst others.

China is the second-largest economy with a nominal GDP of $18.533 trillion and a nominal PPP of $35.291 trillion (2024). Martin Jacques, in ‘When China Rules the World’, has rightly predicted the future of the world by inferring that with the rise of China, western universalism will cease to be universal…The West will progressively discover, to its acute discomfort that the world is no longer Western.’

His prediction cannot be faulted given that the South Asian region is leading the way now as an alternative path to modernisation and sustainable development at the expense of the western paradigm. To further validate this claim, the global share of the G7 has declined from 70 per cent in the 1990s to about 42 per cent in 2024 and is expected to decline further to 28.2 per cent in 2027, with G20 countries controlling 44 per cent -56 per cent and the rest of the world holding 27.24 per cent (Statista 2024).

The central role of the state as the guardian and embodiment of society (Jacques) in relation to China, as applicable to Nigeria, will conclude this piece in the next exposition. Until then, the clarion call to bring back the state in Nigeria, in an expanded role, should be interrogated and catapulted to the epicentre of public discourse, and ultimately heeded, to build a more efficient, competent, engaging, productive and people-oriented state- address the challenges of sustainable development more decisively to balance growth with equity.

Mayomi is a Public Analyst, and Director (Rtd), Federal Civil Service.