Amid the ongoing civil war in Sudan since April 2023, tensions have been steadily rising within the ruling camp, particularly between the Sudanese army, led by Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, and the signatories of the Juba Peace Agreement, who believe they are being denied their fair share of the country’s economic resources. At the heart of the dispute is the fierce competition over control of the Ministry of Minerals, which manages Sudan’s vast wealth in gold and oil.
These divisions, driven by the ambitions of each faction to consolidate power, threaten to spark direct clashes between the army and its nominal allies from the Juba movements. Meanwhile, Islamist hardliners with ties to the Muslim Brotherhood are seeking to exploit this internal conflict to reclaim their historical grip over the state by aligning themselves with the military.
At the same time, Al-Burhan is allegedly attempting to present the government of Kamil Idris as a civilian front that conceals the continued centralization of power in military hands. This alleged strategy complicates the political landscape, with every faction vying aggressively for a larger share of the power-and-resource pie.
These tensions have already triggered dangerous divisions within the armed forces, culminating in catastrophic losses last week in North Kordofan. Fighters from the Zaghawa tribe have been specifically accused of betrayal, deepening an already entrenched sense of marginalization.
Roots of the Conflict: Resources Driving Rivalries
Disagreements are centered around the Ministry of Minerals, one of Sudan’s most economically critical institutions due to its management of gold and oil, two primary revenue streams amid a collapsing economy.
The Juba movements, including the Sudan Liberation Movement led by Minni Minawi and the Justice and Equality Movement led by Gibril Ibrahim, signed the Juba Peace Agreement in October 2020. The accord was meant to guarantee these historically marginalized regions (such as Darfur and South Kordofan) a fair share of power and wealth. However, according to a report by the Arab Reform Initiative, “only the power-sharing component of the agreement was implemented. Leaders of armed groups were given control of key ministries like finance, energy, and minerals – accounting for 95% of state revenue – while other parts of the agreement were neglected.”
This resource-focused arrangement has sparked frustration among the Juba movements, who believe that al-Burhan and the army are trying to reduce their influence by asserting control over this vital ministry.
Conversely, Islamist factions, long entrenched in state institutions, are leveraging their alliance with the army to reestablish political dominance. A report by the Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP) noted, “External actors supporting the army and Islamists – Iran foremost among them – are benefiting from looted gold, incentivizing their involvement through weapons and drone supplies, while Islamists work to deepen their influence via the military.” This rivalry has placed Al-Burhan in a precarious position, as he attempts to appease international demands with a civilian façade, all while maintaining actual authority over core economic and sovereign decisions, angering his allies in the process.
The tensions between the army and the Juba signatories are far more than political quarrels; they risk morphing into direct military confrontations. A report from the International Crisis Group emphasized that “the war in Sudan is not a binary conflict between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), but a complex internal struggle involving ethnic and tribal factions.”
These complexities were evident last week in North Kordofan, where clashes between the army and RSF – who were opposed by Juba-aligned forces – resulted in catastrophic losses for the military after RSF fighters seized critical areas of the strategic region in under 48 hours. The battles laid bare deep fractures among the fighters, with several factions accusing Zaghawa combatants of betrayal and of contributing to the losses.
Accusations of treachery against Zaghawa fighters—who form a major part of the military strength of the Juba movements, especially Minni Minawi’s Sudan Liberation Movement—have ignited a wave of ethnic tensions. According to the Dabanga Sudan website, “Joint forces in Darfur, which include Zaghawa fighters, have taken control of areas in North Darfur, yet the fighting is increasingly taking on an ethnic dimension, particularly between the Zaghawa and Arab tribes.”
These accusations are exacerbating longstanding grievances. A Wikipedia entry on the Darfur War documents how “the Zaghawa have been victims of systemic racial discrimination by the Sudanese army for decades, prompting many to join rebel groups against the government.”
That historical marginalization is fueling current unrest, as the Juba movements feel used militarily by the army without receiving the political or economic benefits promised under the peace agreement. Further inflaming tensions are widespread ethnic abuses committed against non-Arab Sudanese – including Zaghawa – in Khartoum, Gezira State, and Omdurman, after army and Islamist militias took control of these areas in recent months.
Islamist and Al-Burhan: A Balancing Act
In this volatile environment, Islamist hardliners are seeking to consolidate power through their support for the military, exploiting internal divisions to regain control. Al-Burhan, meanwhile, is attempting to balance these factions by promoting the Idris government as a civilian front. However, this approach is facing backlash from the Juba movements, who believe they are being militarily exploited while denied any real political authority.
A report by the Mediterranean Institute of Strategic Studies stated that “the Sudanese army became an instrument of Islamist rule under al-Bashir, and Islamists are now seeking to revive that model through their alliance with al-Burhan.” This growing Islamist influence is fueling concerns among the Juba factions that they may be sidelined from the political process, increasing the risk of violent escalation.
The conflict over Sudan’s mineral wealth and economic resources exposes the deep fissures threatening to tear apart the already fragile alliance between the army and the Juba movements. The devastating military setbacks in North Kordofan and the betrayal accusations aimed at Zaghawa fighters are intensifying feelings of exclusion and increasing the likelihood of ethnic and military conflict.
As Islamist forces attempt to reclaim their influence and al-Burhan seeks to cement his authority, Sudan remains trapped in a vortex of internal divisions that could lead to further devastation, unless a comprehensive political solution is reached. That solution must address the root causes of the conflict, dismantle military dominance, and ensure a fair and inclusive distribution of power and resources.
