The apprentice in the White House

The results are in and Donald Trump will be the 45th president of the United States of America. The American people have spoken in what has been the most engaging, combative, election that I have ever witnessed. Apart from Nixon’s landslide victory by virtue of the “silent majority” in 1972 this has been the most critical departure from “business as usual” and shows that the bedrock of politics lies with the people.

What I found fascinating about this election is that he didn’t win on merit, heroism or by virtue of political clout – he was rude, offensive and a political PR nightmare – he broke all the rules but he stuck to his message:  “Make America Great Again” and zoned in on the issues, anger and fears of the “forgotten people” – the people globalisation left behind, the ones that had lost faith in mainstream politics and the media propelling a political novice to a shocking and historic victory that has caused a tectonic shift in Western democracy. Just like Brexit, the people started a political revolution, reminding the ruling elite about who is really in charge.  
 
There’s a line in the movie Gladiator that states, “I think the emperor knows what Rome is. Rome is the mob” The beating heart of Rome is not the marble of the senate, it’s the sand of the colosseum.” And like Rome, we should all take note; the power of the people, should never be underestimated – Brexit and the Trump’s win over Clinton are both testament to this. On both occasions, pollsters, media and political strategists underestimated the magnitude of the rumblings of the people and their discontent, a discontent we saw mirrored in the historic results of the election on November 8th. 

So what next?
Trumps victory has sent jitters around the world, with the stock markets tumbling the morning of his win with the fear that globalisation has fallen flat, and old certainties are crumbling, unnerving American allies and boosting Eurosceptics across the continent. There will also be trepidation over how he proceeds in terms of immigration, healthcare and foreign policy. He has so far been vague with his foreign policy only using the term “America First”, and suggesting improving relations with Russia. He has pledged to scrap Obamacare thus depriving over 12m Americans of health insurance and has demanded trade concessions from China, Mexico and Canada. He’s also talked about putting punitive taxes on foreign imports in an attempt to rectify trade deficits, deporting immigrants, building a wall with Mexico and renegotiating terms with NATO and the countries others allies.

These protectionist measures will most likely have a negative impact on growth and employment, further impoverishing the poor by limiting their access to cheap imports and intensifying competition between countries’ labour with the fear of causing a trade war, thus the trajectory on global growth and development could be substantial tipping the global economy into a recession.

Trump has boasted that his experience in business will make him a master negotiator in politics. Navigating the change from CEO to President of the Free world is something that the whole world will be watching very closely especially in regards to control over America’s nuclear arsenal – which, in a crisis, is in the hands of him and him alone.

Trump will also inherit a deeply divided America that is split politically, socially, geographically and economically. In his victory speech, Trump said he will double economic growth, work well with American foreign allies, reunite Americans and return America back to its glorious state – he has set the bar very high – Obama promised very little, Trump on the other hand has promised Americans their heart’s desires and that’s easier said than done especially for a “political rookie” with no experience.

If he delivers on his promises, he will go down in history as a hero, a transformative figure, albeit underestimated, not unlike Reagan, a conservative hero who was also mocked and underestimated. However, the danger here is, if he fails to deliver on his promises to the American people he will damage the already fragile trust between the people and the government.

In closing, one thing is for sure, America can no longer be expected to go with the status quo – this election highlighted the disenchantment with the status quo and the political machine that is Capitol Hill.

We all have to wait and see what President Elect Trump has in store for us all. Whatever the case, history has been made, the political revolution has begun and 11/9/2016 will be known as the day the man famous for the word “you’re fired” took on Washington DC and won.
Folawiyo is an economist, and communications consultant.