The contemporaneous struggle emanating from the aspiration to occupy the exalted position of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria may be the beginning of the end for a couple of political bigwigs whose working life and tenure are in the twilight of their long-term careers. For the young actors on the political field of play, failure to smell the odour of the bait in the trap may also signal a push of their evolving career into perdition.

The rush to hobnob with the coalition under the umbrella and cover of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) clearly indicates how desperation can push a man to the edge of the abyss. This is because right from inception, the coalition shows signs of distress in three principal areas.

First, there is a group of those who are pushing the Northern Agenda, followed by those who are building a castle in the air for a possible cross-over of the long-term ambition of Abubakar Atiku to occupy a substantive Presidential seat.

The third category consists of the arc and unrepentant enemies of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu who are largely offended by governmental policies and actions that have affected their food basket and who would rather stay glued to their perception about the darkest side of the administration than its obvious achievements.

This group is difficult to convince because they are like a baby whose feeder-bottle has been snatched and continues to cry until they can shed no more tears. They believe that they have been harmed by those policies, which they consider inimical to the continuous swelling of their bank accounts, irrespective of the disadvantages to the well-being of the masses.

Unfortunately, the political tract is very slippery, causing imbalance and volatility with dire consequences to all who are careless and naive about the political history of Nigeria. The strategic moves call for profound rationality, calm demeanor, and deep intellectual inhalation for positive and profitable outcomes.

Looking at the coalition and its content in terms of membership and goals, one can conclude that its structure is in the likeness of putting old wine in a new bottle because there is hardly a member of the group that has not taken part in the running of the affairs of this country in the past.

The cream of the coalition has been the main sailors who paddled and anchored the ship of Nigeria to its shores of inadequacies. It is indeed shameful that this same group dares to complain about the state of a nation rendered prostrate by their cohort.

However, young, dynamic players and stakeholders in the ensuing political skirmishes, if rational, are expected to keep a reasonable distance from the chessboard set in place by the old-horses who must have been worn out and battered by a distorted sense of contemporaneity from long-time services. In the process, many may have become fixated on old strategies that are no longer feasible in the more dynamic game of the day.

In this instance, some politicians from the North and many believe that their section of the country determines the outcome of elections in this country. This set of ethnocentric individuals is living in the past, forgetting that this country cannot continue to sacrifice its best for the second fiddle.

They should agree that it is time to outgrow the state of continuously self-denying our country the best on the platter of senseless and archaic pecuniary considerations when we can do better by putting our best eleven forward in a challenging, competitive world.

The erroneous impression, particularly by the old brigades, that election and “snatching of offices” from the current office holder is the only preoccupation of the politicians has to be discouraged because that is the reason for excessively overheating the polity before the incumbent has the opportunity to settle down in office. Whereas, service rather than power snatching is the principal benefit to the country and its people.

The concept of “Kaka ki eku ma je sese, a fi se awa danu,” meaning “Rather than not being able to eat the palm nut and palm oil, the rat will spill or scatter it all over the field” is so entrenched in the old order to the extent that these actions are making governance a nightmare to the occupants of the office, thereby denying the generality of our people the benefits of good governance and administration. This is not to say that we are calling for the indifference of the opposition to government policies, but every action must be timed appropriately and structured in accordance with the rules of the game.

With the invasion of an existing registered political party, that is, the ADC, by the members of the old block, some important issues are coming to the forefront. There is hardly any coalition member who is either not a loser in the previous political contest or someone who has become idle or jobless as a consequence of the expiration of their tenure. It is also a fact that almost all the members were once in the saddle of leadership, where they were expected to have corrected the anomalies being pointed out by them today.

A member of the group was once the Vice-President of Nigeria for eight years, which is 42 per cent of the life of the fourth republic. It is also a matter of fact that there is no governor in that group who did not serve for the same eight years in each of their states. During the tenure of Mallam el-Rufai as the Governor of Kaduna State, between 2015 and 2023, the state boiled like the molten magma of a restive volcano by becoming the epicentre of political, religious, and ethnic ferocity.

In June 2022, Fulani militants killed thirty-two civilians in four villages of Ugwan Gamu, Ungwan, Sarki, and Maikori villages in the Kajuru area of Kaduna State. Violence against Christians in Southern Kaduna was so widespread during this tenure that the Southern Kaduna Leadership Council (SKLC) appealed to the international community to investigate alleged “genocide and discrimination against the Southern Kaduna people during the eight years of the administration.

These are just the tip of the iceberg in the unspeakable inhumanity to man in that era. Is it then not ironic that the same man whose tenure was so restive can come out boldly to accuse President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of failure to curb violence in the North?

The Boko Haram, which has assumed a deadly life of its own, began as Yusufiyya during the tenure of Obasanjo-Atiku presidency when one Mohammed Yusuf led it. This group metamorphosed later into Boko Haram after its leader, Yusuf, was brutally murdered during the tenure of President Yar’Adua.

It is also on record that terrorism started in 2002 when Abubakar Atiku and his boss called the shots as the Vice-President of Nigeria. Today, it has grown to such a humongous size that peace has eluded the Northern part of Nigeria.

It is clear that ambition rather than the love of the country is the primary motives why the opposition run around the political track with little cognizance of the interests of all and sundry in the society. Also, it is becoming apparent that Peter Obi, Atiku and Amechi are already in conflict on who would carry the baton in the forthcoming presidential race.

It is worth noting that many of these politicians have scandalously, shamelessly, and dishonestly abandoned the Political Parties where they are card-carrying members for the new coalition with absolute indifference to ideology, which is the foundation on which every political party is anchored and sustained.

It is only in Nigeria that the leftists and the capitalists can indifferently merge ideology without flinching. A good number of those in the new coalition have moved from one political party to another in search of a position rather than in search of a solution to the problems of this country.

For the sake of the current exercise, let us look at the set of possible outcomes of the opposition’s coalition opportunities against the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the odds against its emergence.

We shall concentrate on the following list of key players, knowing that the success or failure of the experiments that the coalition is embarking upon depends solely on the trio and any other interests that may show up in the not-too-distant future. These are Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Rotimi Ameachi. This is not to ignore others who may show interest in the games later on.

Vice President Atiku has clearly shown that he is firm and decisive about his aspiration to become the President of Nigeria. He would have been in 1999 but for circumstances beyond his control and for the fact that the political terrain and mood of Nigeria at that time dictated that the Presidency must be ceded to the Yoruba Nation for the injustice done to them due to the June 12 saga. Atiku would have been on the ballot box in 2003 as President but for the failure of the PDP to honour the unwritten agreement that Obasanjo would do only a term as the President.

As a result of these failures, he has become a serial contender for the position. Having gone a whole hog, it is doubtful if he would at this time fail to try his luck, knowing that this may be his final opportunity to occupy the position.

If he insists on representing the coalition, then Peter Obi is likely to be the whipping boy. He would in due course have the same fate that befell Atiku in the last twenty-six years because his constituency will splinter and the Igbo nation clamoring for the position may have to shop for another viable candidate.

By going into the coalition, Peter Obi may eventually and indiscreetly inflict serious injury on his political career and cause a setback to the aspirations of the Igbo nation. Like the proverb of the Igbo, which says, “kpụkpụ na-anụghị ntị ka na-eso ozu banye n’ili “literally meaning “It is only a deaf fly that follows the deaf to the grave”.

For Peter Obi, it has been noise without luck. Although he is not in the category of Vice-President Atiku Abubakar in terms of spread and acceptance, he has a sizeable following that would clinch him the ticket in the primaries if he could garner the support of the Waziri Adamawa. This can only happen if the latter is not contending for the position.

Amechi is a third-party candidate who, although full of mouth, has little ability to gather enough support for a ticket. Among the three, Vice President Atiku can only be underrated to the detriment of his rivals. If he succeeded in winning the primaries, he would have to do more than ordinary to defeat President Tinubu at the polls.

Ojikutu is a retired Professor of Statistics at the University of Lagos.