President Bola Tinubu has been projected to win the 2027 presidential election, with a political forecast putting him ahead of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party candidate Peter Obi.

The projection by the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng gives Tinubu 20 states, Atiku nine states and Obi eight states, based on the political circumstances prevailing at the moment.

The group said Tinubu’s perceived achievements in stabilising the economy and his efforts to reposition the country could give him an advantage over his major challengers.

According to the forecast, Tinubu is expected to dominate the South-West, with all six states in the region projected to fall into his column. Lagos, which has been central to his political career, is also projected to remain with the president.

The forecast also places Kano State in Tinubu’s column, a development that could give him a significant foothold in the North. Kano remains one of the country’s largest electoral territories and a major battleground in presidential elections.

PIG, however, acknowledged that the political situation could change significantly before the 2027 election.

It noted that issues such as inflation, employment, security, infrastructure and the cost of living could significantly influence voters’ decisions.

The administration’s ability to communicate its achievements and convince Nigerians about the impact of its policies could also become a major campaign issue.

Atiku Projected to Win Nine States

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is projected to win nine states, according to the forecast.

PIG expects Atiku to maintain considerable support across parts of Northern Nigeria, including Kaduna and some states in the North-East and North-West.

His established political network and previous presidential campaigns could strengthen his ability to mobilise support across the region.

Atiku’s position on fuel subsidy could also become an important campaign issue, particularly if Nigerians continue to face high transportation costs and rising living expenses.

The former vice president has advocated a review of the current fuel subsidy policy and measures aimed at reducing the burden of petrol prices on Nigerians.

However, the subsidy debate could also raise questions about government revenue, public spending and the financial sustainability of subsidising petroleum products.

Atiku’s chances could ultimately depend on his ability to combine his northern support with substantial backing from other parts of the country.

Obi Projected to Win Eight States

Peter Obi is projected to win eight states, with the Federal Capital Territory and Edo State among the areas expected to favour the Labour Party candidate.

The forecast reflects the political support Obi built during the 2023 presidential election, when he performed strongly in several parts of the country.

His campaign is expected to continue focusing on political change, economic management, accountability, public spending and efficiency in government.

However, his major challenge could be expanding his support beyond areas where he has traditionally performed strongly.

Alliances Could Change Projection

PIG cautioned that its forecast should not be regarded as the final outcome of the 2027 presidential election.

The group reportedly based its projection on a scenario in which the election was held in September under the political circumstances currently prevailing, with the APC emerging victorious.

The political landscape could nevertheless change before the actual election through new alliances, defections, coalition arrangements, the choice of running mates and changes in the popularity of the candidates.

Economic conditions could also alter voters’ preferences, particularly if issues such as inflation, petrol prices, unemployment, security and the cost of living become more prominent.

Religion, ethnicity and regional interests could also feature in the political calculations, although voters could equally prioritise economic conditions and the performance of the government.

For now, the PIG projection places Tinubu in the strongest position with 20 states, followed by Atiku with nine and Obi with eight, while noting that the political equation could change considerably before Nigerians go to the polls in 2027.