Prof. Jasper Ikpesu is an author and public affairs commentator. He is also the Head of Health Safety and Environment (HSE) and General Services Department, Petroleum Training Institute (PTI), Effurun, Delta State. He spoke with OPEYEMI BABALOLA on the defections of politicians to the All Progressive Congress (APC), 2027 elections, war in Iran and effect on global oil prices, renewed wave of insurgency in the country, among other issues. Excerpts:

How do you think the lingering insecurity in the country can be totally nipped in the bud?

Insurgency in Nigeria, particularly Boko Haram, has severely impacted several key sectors of the economy. The most affected sectors include agriculture. The North East and North West regions, once major agricultural hubs, have seen significant declines in production due to insecurity, displacement, and restricted access to fields. This resulted in about 30 per cent to 40 per cent decline in agricultural production, which led to trade disruptions, especially in conflict-affected areas. The insurgency has disrupted education, leading to widespread unemployment and poverty. About 40 to 50 per cent of schools are closed or destroyed in the affected areas.

Also, critical infrastructure has been destroyed (20 to 30 per cent), thereby hindering economic development and investment. Banditry and farmer-herder conflicts have reduced herd sizes and disrupted traditional transhumance routes. So, about 20 to 30 per cent decline in livestock population was due to banditry and farmer-herder conflicts. These sectors are crucial to Nigeria’s economy, and the insurgency’s impact has led to widespread poverty, unemployment, and slowed regional growth.

Overall, insecurity is estimated to contribute to around 21 per cent of multidimensional poverty across states in Nigeria. The group has caused over $10 billion in economic losses, crippling the Northeast’s economy and affecting regional trade. The insurgency has led to widespread unemployment, poverty, and slowed regional growth. Over 13,000 people have lost their lives, and more than 300,000 have been displaced, impacting six million Nigerians.

To nip insurgency in the bud, experts suggest a multi-faceted approach: Addressing poverty and unemployment: Tackling underlying causes like poverty and illiteracy can reduce Boko Haram’s appeal; Strengthening security: Providing advanced weaponry and bolstering security efforts can help neutralise the group; Promoting education: Boosting local school enrollment can counter extremist ideologies; Fostering national cohesion: Encouraging unity and addressing socio-economic inequalities can undermine Boko Haram’s narrative.

How do you see the new tax laws? Do you think they need to be reviewed?

First, let’s see the benefits of the new tax laws. The new tax laws in Nigeria are expected to have a positive impact on the economy. Here are some key statistics: GDP Growth: The World Bank projects Nigeria’s GDP growth to reach 4.4 per cent in 2026 and 2027, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in the region. Tax-to-GDP Ratio: The tax-to-GDP ratio is expected to increase from 9.5 per cent to 10.2 per cent in 2026 and 12.5 per cent in 2027, indicating improved revenue mobilisation. Revenue Mobilisation: The government aims to increase non-oil revenue to 40 per cent of GDP by 2030. Inflation: Inflation is projected to average 17.3 per cent in 2026, with a year-end rate of 14 per cent. Unemployment: The reforms aim to create jobs and stimulate economic growth, particularly in non-oil sectors like services, telecommunications, and finance.

The new tax laws also provide relief for low-income earners and small businesses, with exemptions and simplified tax structures.

To answer your question, the new tax laws in Nigeria aim to simplify tax compliance, broaden the tax base, and increase revenue. Key changes include: Unified Tax Framework: Consolidates multiple tax laws into one, reducing bureaucracy and overlapping regulations. Tax-Free Threshold: Individuals earning ₦800,000 or less annually are exempt from personal income tax. Progressive Tax System: Tax rates range from 15 per cent to 25 per cent, with higher earners paying more. VAT Reforms: VAT remains at 7.5 per cent, but essential goods and services are zero-rated or exempt. Digital Taxation: Non-resident digital suppliers must register, charge, and remit VAT. Incentives: Tax holidays for agricultural businesses and exemptions for small companies.

While the reforms aim to stimulate economic growth and fairness, concerns remain about implementation, enforcement, and potential impact on low-income earners. Some experts suggest the laws may need refinement to address these concerns.

What do you think are wrong with President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms as they don’t seem to impact positively on the economy and the people?

President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms have been a topic of discussion, with some Nigerians questioning their impact. While the administration highlights achievements like reduced inflation, increased foreign investment, and improved GDP growth, critics argue that the reforms haven’t translated to tangible benefits for the average citizen. Because of one factor or the other, the Federal Government has not focused on the implementation of the National Development Plan since inception. However, President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda is closely integrated with the National Development Plan, and it’s having a significant impact on his economic reforms. The Renewed Hope Plan 2026-2030 aims to consolidate ongoing reforms, drive economic growth, and achieve a $1 trillion economy by 2030.

The plan focuses on key areas like: Economic Diversification: Shifting from oil dependence to manufacturing, technology, and agriculture. Job Creation: Accelerating job creation, improving human capital, and expanding sustainable infrastructure. Food Security: Enhancing food security and strengthening social protection. Infrastructure Development: Expanding sustainable infrastructure and improving connectivity. Governance: Strengthening governance and promoting transparency.

The integration of the Renewed Hope Agenda with the National Development Plan is expected to drive economic growth, improve living standards, and position Nigeria as a major player on the global stage.

More so, some potential drawbacks of the reforms include: High Inflation: Although inflation has decreased, it remains a concern, with many Nigerians still struggling to afford basic necessities. Unemployment: Despite economic growth, unemployment remains a significant issue, particularly among youth. Income Inequality: The reforms may be exacerbating income inequality, with some individuals and corporations benefiting more than others. Fuel Subsidy Removal: The removal of fuel subsidies has led to increased fuel prices, affecting transportation and commodity costs. Taxation: The new tax laws and harmonisation efforts may increase the tax burden on citizens and businesses.

It’s essential to note that economic reforms often take time to yield results, and their impact may vary across different segments of society.
The ongoing war in Iran is expected to raise the demand for Nigerian crude and bring more money to the country. How do you think the Federal Government should use these huge funds that would accrue to the country?

The ongoing war in Iran is likely to have a mixed impact on Nigeria’s economy. On the positive side, higher oil prices resulting from the conflict could boost Nigeria’s revenue, strengthening its fiscal and external balances in the short term. With Brent crude trading above $73 per barrel, Nigeria stands to gain from increased oil exports, potentially improving its foreign exchange position and easing pressure on the naira.

However, there are also potential downsides: Inflationary Pressures: Global oil prices will rise, which may lead to higher fuel costs, increased transportation expenses, and broader inflationary pressures. Production Challenges: Nigeria’s inability to meet its oil production targets due to issues like pipeline vandalism and underinvestment might limit the benefits of higher oil prices. Economic Diversification: The war highlights the need for Nigeria to diversify its economy, reducing dependence on oil revenue and strengthening domestic energy systems. Therefore, the Federal Government should strategically utilise the increased revenue from oil exports to drive economic growth and development.

Here are some potential areas to consider: Infrastructure Development: Invest in critical infrastructure projects, such as roads, bridges, and power generation to improve the business environment and support economic diversification. Diversification of the Economy: Allocate funds to sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and technology to reduce dependence on oil exports and create new revenue streams. Social Welfare Programmes: Implement targeted social welfare programmes to alleviate poverty and improve living standards, particularly for vulnerable populations. Debt Reduction: Consider using some of the funds to reduce the country’s debt burden, freeing up resources for more productive uses. Investment in Human Capital: Prioritise investments in education, healthcare, and skills development to enhance the productivity and competitiveness of the workforce.

It’s also crucial for the government to ensure transparency and accountability in managing the increased revenue, potentially through the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund or other fiscal mechanisms.
Still on the War in Iran, it has also led to increase in the cost of petroleum products consumed locally. What should the government do to ensure that this does not lead to astronomical rise in cost of living?

There are several measures the Federal Government can consider to mitigate the impact of the Iran war on local petroleum product prices and the cost of living. These include: Increase Local Refining Capacity: The government should boost domestic oil production and refining to reduce reliance on imports, which are vulnerable to global price fluctuations. It is a shame to Nigeria as a nation at this point that we are still doing “baby sitting” as far as oil refining is concerned. Diversify Energy Sources: The government should massively invest in and encourage the use of alternative energy sources like Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and renewable energy (solar farms across Nigeria) to reduce dependence on petroleum products. Price Controls: It should implement targeted price controls to cushion the impact on vulnerable populations while avoiding blanket subsidies that can be costly and inefficient. Improve Supply Chain Efficiency: Address logistics and distribution challenges to ensure smooth supply of petroleum products across the country. Fiscal Discipline: The government should manage oil revenue windfalls prudently, saving surpluses to buffer against future shocks and investing in economic diversification. The government has already taken steps to promote CNG adoption. Efforts should be intensified to accelerate this transition and address the immediate impact on citizens.

Many Nigerian professionals are leaving the country for greener pastures abroad in what is described as ‘Japa’ syndrome. What do you think the government should do to stop this mass exodus?

The government did not set measures to control this “Japa” syndrome” on time. To address this brain drain, the government could consider: Improve Working Conditions: Salaries, benefits, and work environments should be enhanced to match international standards. It should invest in education and skill training. Educational institutions must be upgraded and provide opportunities for professional skill development. Foster Innovation and Entrepreneurship: A conducive environment for startups and innovation should be provided to encourage locals to build their own “greener pastures.” We must deal with insecurity and corruption, which are major push factors for Nigerians seeking opportunities abroad. The government should also engage with Nigerian professionals abroad and encourage them to contribute to the country’s development remotely or through return initiatives.

The next general election has been scheduled to commence in January 2027. What is your advice to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and other stakeholders who will be involved in the elections?

For a successful and smooth electoral process, INEC should focus on: Voter Education: INEC should educate citizens on voting procedures and the importance of participation. Electoral Technology: They should ensure the reliability and security of voting systems. Stakeholder Engagement: INEC should collaborate with political parties, civil society, and security agencies. Conflict Prevention: INEC should establish mechanisms for addressing electoral disputes and violence.

However, stakeholders, including political parties and civil society organisations, should be ready to monitor electoral processes to ensure transparency and accountability; promote peaceful campaigns to encourage candidates to focus on issues rather than inflammatory rhetoric; and support voter registration to encourage eligible citizens to register and participate.

INEC Chairman, Joash Amupitan, has acknowledged the “trust deficit” among citizens and urged the media to help reshape the narrative.
The new Inspector General of Police (IGP), Tunji Disu, has set up a committee on the modalities for the creation of State Police. What advice would you proffer to this committee as they begin work?

The committee set up by the IGP to explore state police creation has a crucial and critical task to handle. They will succeed if they focus on: Reviewing existing policing models: They should study models from other countries and Nigeria’s current security structure to inform their recommendations. Assessing community security needs: Specific security challenges in different regions must be identified and tailored solutions accordingly. Proposing an operational framework: The committee must define clear roles, responsibilities, and coordination mechanisms for state police structures. Addressing recruitment and training: They must ensure standardised recruitment processes and training programmes to maintain professionalism. Developing accountability mechanisms: They must establish robust oversight to prevent abuse of power and ensure public trust. Resource allocation: Determine funding models and resource distribution to ensure sustainability.

The committee should also consider jurisdictional issues, supervisory frameworks, and potential conflicts with existing security agencies.
What do you see as the biggest challenge facing Nigeria?

The major challenge is insecurity. From Boko Haram insurgency in the Northeast to banditry and kidnappings in the Northwest/across the country, and separatist agitations in the Southeast, insecurity is crippling the country. This has affected economic growth, displaces people, and strains resources. The Federal Government should address this as a top priority.
What is your take on the defections to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC)? Do you think that this trend is healthy for the nation’s democracy?

The defections to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) have sparked concerns about Nigeria’s democratic health. Critics argue that this trend undermines opposition parties. Secondly, it weakens checks on executive power, and lastly, it fosters a dominant-party system, potentially leading to authoritarianism.

These defections are seen to be largely driven by personal interests, access to power and resources, and protection from prosecution rather than ideological convictions. This raises questions about politicians’ accountability to their constituents and the erosion of public trust in the electoral process.

Experts warn that Nigeria risks sliding into one-party dominance, citing examples like Zimbabwe, Russia, and Kenya, where this has led to economic and social instability. To mitigate this, they advocate for constitutional amendments to curb defections, strengthen internal party democracy, and an independent judiciary and electoral commission.
President Bola Tinubu recently issued Executive Order 9, which provided that all monies realised from crude oil should be paid to the Consolidated Fund. Why do you think the President should come up with such a law which is in conflict with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) without going through the National Assembly?

President Tinubu’s Executive Order 9 has sparked debate, with some arguing it’s a necessary step to ensure transparency and block revenue leakages, while others claim it contradicts the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and oversteps executive power.

Critics argue that the President is overstepping his authority, as the PIA is a law enacted by the National Assembly. They claim the order undermines legislative power and creates uncertainty for investors. Supporters, however, see it as a constitutional intervention to correct inconsistencies in the PIA and ensure compliance with Section 162 of the Constitution, which mandates that all revenues be paid into the Federation Account

The order directs all oil and gas revenues to be paid into the Federation Account, effectively bypassing deductions and retentions previously allowed under the PIA. This move aims to increase revenue allocation to states and local governments.