Come August 8, 2026, Osun State Governor, Ademola Nurudeen Jackson Adeleke, will confront tough reelection obstacles, especially with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) beating different drums and the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) seeking revenge. This time, the governor will need more than popularity and deft dance steps to get by, SEYE OLUMIDE writes.

For Senator Adeleke, the dancing governor of Osun State, it is only a change of dancing steps that could earn him applause in the approaching governorship competition.

With Fuji, DanceHall and Apala playing simultaneously at the Presidency, PDP and Osun State chapters of APC and African Democratic Congress (ADC), the journey to a second term for the governor does not sound interesting.

Ordinarily, Governor Adeleke should have been contesting the election as a referendum on his performance alone. But the tiny details and deals that surrounded his first victory four years ago have come to dog his second electoral journey.

Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, the immediate past governor of the state, who was accused by the immediate past governor, Gboyega Oyetola and his supporters, of joining forces with him to pick the prize, has become the national scribe of the Coalition of Opposition forces on the ADC.

Then, on the flipside, Oyetola, who lost to him in the former contest, is angling for a repeat contest, even as the issue of the unresolved Local Government election continues to challenge his peace.

While the governor has maintained a populist image and scored modest gains in civil service reforms and symbolic gestures of goodwill, the situation on the ground is anything but smooth.

From growing dissent within his own party, the PDP, to APC’s renewed vigour, and the ambition of third-force platforms of ADC and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), the incumbent governor faces multiple headwinds in the lead-up to the 2026 contest.

Then, there is the concern about where the Presidency stands. There is no doubt that President Bola Tinubu’s desperate push to consolidate the APC’s hold in the South-West will impact the Osun governorship poll. The challenging fix seems to be compounded by the state of things in PDP, where many of his contemporaries in other states — including all three senators from Osun — have already defected to the ruling APC.

Despite occupying the state’s top seat, Adeleke’s hold on the PDP is increasingly being tested, just as his loyalists are currently torn between standing by him or shifting allegiance to President Tinubu’s APC ahead of the 2027 general election, which may leave the North contending with the South.

There are also long-standing concerns about regional equity in Osun, which may fracture the PDP’s internal unity. Political analysts say that a disenchanted Ijesa bloc—an area that significantly contributed to Adeleke’s 2022 victory—could swing if not urgently reconciled.

Adeleke’s recent public endorsement of President Tinubu and participation in national-level engagements with the ruling APC have also drawn sharp criticism among PDP members, who view his gesture as a betrayal of the opposition cause. Insiders fear that Adeleke’s perceived political flirtations may erode the PDP’s trust and morale at the state and national levels.

Besides the internal hurdles challenging him, the major opposition APC is seriously repositioning itself to challenge Adeleke in the poll come August next year. This informed the APC’s total rejection of recent overtures by Adeleke to defect, as has been widely speculated.

Some members of the APC in Osun, especially former Deputy Governor Iyiola Omisore, have publicly insisted that the governor brings no value to the APC.

Strategically, incumbent Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Gboyega Oyetola, has shelved his ambition to re-contest but remains a significant force behind the scenes. This move is aimed specifically at helping the APC resolve its zoning issues, one of the factors that doomed the party in the 2022 gubernatorial election.

Oyetola’s decision opens the door for a new APC candidate, likely someone from Osun West Senatorial District, which is clamouring for the party’s ticket in the name of equity. This potential realignment could pose a serious challenge to Adeleke, who hails from the same zone. If the APC fields a youthful, development-focused, and locally resonant candidate backed by Oyetola and the presidency, the contest could swing sharply against the incumbent.

Additionally, if the APC handles its internal zoning debate strategically, it could help unify the party and deepen its regional appeal—an advantage Adeleke currently lacks due to tensions within his base.

Beyond the PDP and APC, alternative parties are also gaining ground in Osun’s fluid political atmosphere. The growing influence of the coalition African Democratic Congress (ADC), led by the immediate past Minister of Interior and former Osun governor, Rauf Aregbesola, is a significant hurdle for the incumbent governor.

Given Aregbesola’s strong grip on grassroots politics in Osun, the growing influence of the ADC—supported by former APC loyalists and reformists—is even more threatening to Adeleke’s re-election ambition.

Recall that Adeleke and the former minister worked hand in glove to unseat Oyetola of the APC in 2022. The current Minister of Marine and Blue Economy served under Aregbesola as Chief of Staff from 2010 to 2018 under the APC platform until they parted ways.

Although Oyetola succeeded Aregbesola in 2018 when Adeleke lost in a controversial election after a rerun, Aregbesola later joined forces with Adeleke to unseat his successor in 2022—until recently, when the duo (Adeleke and Aregbesola) fell out.

Aregbesola, currently the interim national secretary of the ADC, has openly stated that both the PDP and APC will lose the 2026 election in Osun, continuously portraying himself and the ADC as a progressive alternative to the state’s entrenched two-party dominance.

Although the coalition party stands little chance of winning the 2026 gubernatorial poll outright in Osun, pundits believe it is capable of doing more damage to Adeleke’s re-election bid than to the major APC.

While these third-party outfits may not win outright, they could serve as significant spoilers. By splitting votes in key battleground local governments like Osogbo, Ede North, Ilesa East, and Ife Central, they could deny Adeleke the majority and force a run-off—or worse, deliver the state to a reinvigorated APC.

Adeleke’s style of governance has been both praised and criticised. His populist touch—early payment of salaries, reduction in university fees, commissioning of minor roadworks, and human-centric rhetoric—has won him favour among sections of the populace.

However, critics argue that his administration has yet to deliver transformative infrastructural or economic projects that would justify a second term. There have also been complaints about uneven development across the state, particularly in neglected rural areas.

Defection rumours, air of uncertainty
Amid these challenges, Adeleke has had to repeatedly deny rumours of a planned defection to the APC.

The speculation, stoked by his open admiration for President Tinubu, has unsettled both camps. While the APC remains sceptical of integrating him fully, the PDP is reportedly drawing up contingency plans in case the governor pulls out or is disqualified from the ticket.

Some PDP leaders have confirmed the pressure on the governor to defect to the APC, expressing concern that Adeleke may have no choice but to either defect or be forced to support President Tinubu.

A member of the Osun APC, who prefers not to be named, dismissed Adeleke’s recent pledge to remain in the PDP but acknowledged his support for President Tinubu’s re-election in 2027.

According to him, “That is a costly gamble. What if he (Adeleke) wins next year and decides to do otherwise in 2027? There’s nothing we can do. You recall that APC lost everything to PDP in the last general election in Osun State. This is politics, not sentiment. Let the incumbent governor go to the polls under the PDP platform next year, and the APC will also field its candidate.”

A former Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the PDP, Diran Odeyemi, who currently serves under Adeleke, also confirmed the pressure on the incumbent governor from the federal government. He said the insinuation that Adeleke might opt to support President Tinubu may stem from the sentiment that both are from Osun State—and it may not sit well for the governor to jettison his own for another person.

He also noted that the federal government’s deliberate withholding of local government funds meant for Osun in recent months has placed the governor under enormous pressure.

Corroborating Odeyemi, former Deputy National Chairman of the PDP, Bode George, told The Guardian, “Adeleke confided in me the pressure being mounted on him and I shared his pains, but notwithstanding, the PDP will present its own presidential candidate.”

A former governor of Osun, Olagunsoye Oyinlola, put it succinctly that Adeleke shed tears while narrating how he is being pressured to defect to the APC, even while members of the Osun APC are rejecting his entry.

However, The Guardian reliably gathered that Adeleke’s chances of defecting to the APC remain open, depending on what President Tinubu decides.

According to a source, “The reason many APC members in Osun may not speak outrightly about Governor Adeleke is because if Mr President insists he should defect, there’s nothing any of us can do—not even Omisore. If you attack him (Adeleke) now and he ends up defecting and gets the ticket, how would you relate to him?”

Reacting to the Adeleke–Aregbesola fallout, an aide to the former minister, Sola Fasure, said his principal has no issue to resolve with the governor, but that it was Adeleke who started the mudslinging when Aregbesola emerged as the National Secretary of the ADC.

Fasure recalled how Adeleke benefitted immensely from the APC internal crisis of 2021/2022, when all loyalists of Aregbesola, who were victimised by Oyetola, defected to work for Adeleke in the PDP—contributing to his victory.

According to him, “It was surprising how Adeleke suddenly turned around to start attacking Aregbesola because he felt APC would embrace him. But he was told outrightly that even if he defected to the APC, he would have to contest for the ticket. This is where ADC also stands. If Adeleke wants to join us, he is welcome—but he will fight for the ticket. We have no issue with him.”

Speaking on the APC’s chances of ousting Adeleke and the PDP next year, Olatunbosun Oyintiloye, who served under Aregbesola and Oyetola, said the factors that gave the incumbent governor an advantage in 2022 are no longer visible.

He said since Oyetola left office and became minister, concerted efforts have been made to reposition the APC in Osun—to the extent that two serving PDP senators and some House of Representatives members have defected to the APC. “More are coming. These were the support base Adeleke used against us in 2022, but those factors are now with us.

“Recall that APC only lost that election by a margin of 20,000 votes, and this can easily be redeemed.”

Oyintiloye also dismissed the perceived growing influence of the ADC, saying the 2026 battle will still be between the APC and PDP.

Yet, despite the odds, there are strong indications that the “dancing governor” still retains the political arsenal needed to clinch a second term in the August 8, 2026, governorship election. From sustained grassroots appeal and civil service support to disarray within the opposition and the governor’s populist governance style, Adeleke may yet defy expectations.