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Osun guber: Oyetola, Adeleke, Ogunbiyi, Lasun in front row

By Tunji Omofoye and Timothy Agbor, Osogbo
14 June 2022   |   2:46 am
The governorship election in Osun State, scheduled to hold on July 16 is crucial to all the 14 political parties that have been certified by the Independent National Electoral Commission

Oyetola

The governorship election in Osun State, scheduled to hold on July 16 is crucial to all the 14 political parties that have been certified by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to contest. But four parties, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), major opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Accord Party (AP) and Labour Party (LP) have demonstrated they are in the race to win.

 
The remaining 10 political parties and their candidates will have less impact on the race.
 
The incumbent governor, Gboyega Oyetola of APC will have another date with the candidate of PDP, Senator Ademola Adeleke, whom he (Oyetola) defeated four years ago after a controversial rerun. The electoral commission had declared the September 2018 governorship election inconclusive when Adeleke showed signs to be in a clear lead. It took the former Deputy Governor of Osun, Senator Iyiola Omisore to defect to APC before the ruling party could win the election. Even at that, the Election Tribunal ruled in favour of Adeleke, but the Supreme Court later reversed the decision in favour of Oyetola.
 
It was assumed that Adeleke won the election but the process was allegedly tampered with to favour Oyetola. The rivalry between Oyetola and Adeleke will resurface on July 16 when the duo will clash at the poll again.
 
It is also important to note that both PDP and APC would want to use the coming Osun election to test their strength in Southwest zone ahead of the 2023 general elections.
 
Another issue that would make the election interesting is that Oyetola, is currently at loggerheads with some members of APC in Osun, which forced the former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yusuf Lasun, to leave APC to contest on the platform of Labour Party (LP). It is, therefore, good to say that APC and LP amount to a house divided against itself. The question is, will Adeleke of PDP capitalise on this?
 
Adeleke is also going to face a similar fate to Dr Akin Ogunbiyi, who is currently contesting the governorship election on the platform of the Accord Party (AP). Recall that Ogunbiyi also defected to AP after he lost out in the parallel primaries conducted by the PDP to elect its candidate. Just like APC, Adeleke and Ogunbiyi are members of the PDP but the party is now divided against itself.
  
Oyetola is seeking a second term after his emergence as the APC flag bearer in a congress that witnessed parallel primaries supported by his immediate predecessor and current Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola.
 
The immediate past governor had openly declared support for a faction in the party, The Osun Progressives, following a frosty relationship with both Oyetola and their mentor, Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu.
 
To date, there has not been a serious resolution of the crisis that led to the division in Osun APC.
 
Since Oyetola emerged as governor in 2018, the incumbent has recorded modest achievements in critical areas like road infrastructure, education, health and regular payment of salaries.
 
Oyetola, will, however, go into the race once again with familiar foes, meanwhile, Adeleke and his party have not left anyone in doubt that the contest this time would be serious.

The incumbency factor may work for Oyetola coupled with some landmark achievements, which his admirers regard as unique selling points. In addition, political watchers see Oyetola as a good resource manager, a good listener, a strategist and an easygoing personality. He is regarded in some political circles as a reliable politician, who strives to fulfil promises he made to the electorate.

 
The popularity and spread of APC across the six geo-political areas in the state may also work in the favour of the governor.
 
The defection of Senator Omisore from the Social Democratic Party (SDP), who is now the National Secretary of APC, is likely to further boost the chances of Oyetola.
 
Oyetola enjoys support and goodwill from various people within and outside the state, especially with the emergence of his blood brother, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu as the presidential candidate of APC for the 2023 general elections.
 
Apart from easy access to state facilities and logistics, the governor may find it easier than other contestants to reach out to the electorates. Tinubu, who is also APC National Leader, may likely do everything within his capacity to ensure Oyetola wins so that Osun remains in the fold of the ruling party in readiness for the 2023 general elections.
 
But despite his head-start vantage, many citizens of Osun still believe Oyetola is slow in taking actions and decisions, particularly in the areas of security and policy. Upsurge in social crimes and resurgence of hoodlums, who terrorise innocent citizens are some of the weaknesses, which will work against Oyetola’s re-election. 

Moreover, the general clamour in some political quarters to have a change in leadership in the next dispensation may also affect his chances.

More critical to his smooth sailing during the election is the failure to reconcile with the other factions being openly backed by Aregbesola.    

Osun Progressives, which is headed by Aregbesola also parades notable politicians and leaders, who are capable of pulling a surprise and causing a serious setback for the governor at critical moments.

   
Other internal party challenges are those of primaries into the State and National Assembly not being announced yet. Some fear this may trigger disenchantment and anti-party sentiments going into the election.
 
Meanwhile, the people in Osun West have been clamouring to take another shot at the governorship. Apart from the late Senator Adetunji Isiaka Adeleke from Osun West, the people say it is their turn to produce governor for the state. Aregbesola is from Osun East, other past governors including Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, Chief Bisi Akande and Oyetola, are from Osun Central. This development may favour Adeleke next month.

FOR Lasun, the immediate past Deputy Speaker in the National Assembly is a notable and experienced politician, who left APC to pursue his governorship ambition in Labour Party. He emerged as Deputy Speaker in a controversial manner.  Some fault him for that decision to hold the office against the will of party leaders.

Others think Lasun took a good decision when they saw the positive things his service brought to the state.  He was one of those who contested with Oyetola in 2018 primary and refused to step down.
 

 
His greatest asset is his strong character to withstand opposition. Though Labour Party is still growing in Osun, Lasun controls a sizeable following and can still go a long way in the election.
 
Though there are unresolved issues regarding the emergence of Adeleke as the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, he has been certified as the only candidate of the party. Adeleke is a good mobiliser, which favoured him in the race for Osun West senatorial seat in 2017. He used the bye-election to test his political strength in his constituency. He defeated his APC opponent, Mudashiru Hussein by winning nine out of the ten local government areas in the district.

Adeleke had joined the PDP less than a month before the Senatorial bye-election after he faulted the conduct of the primaries of the APC, where he was a contestant. It was said that Adeleke rode on the sentiments people had for his late brother, Isiaka Adeleke, who occupied the Senatorial seat before his demise.
  
The 62-year-old politician has continued to enjoy the goodwill of his brothers – late Senator Isiaka Adetunji Adeleke and Dr Deji Adeleke. The late Senator Adeleke was the first civilian governor of the state, while Dr Adeleke is a businessman and father of popular musician, David Adeleke also known as Davido.
 


Before he died, Senator Adeleke was a prominent politician in the state and had a lot of followers. Majority of those supporting Ademola Adeleke now are doing so because of the late Adeleke, given their relationship with the deceased.

Dr Akin Ogunbiyi is not a new face in the political scene of Osun. But he is a new face in Accord Party, where he is the governorship candidate. Ogunbiyi who is an investment expert is the founder of Mutual Benefits Assurance, a globally recognised insurance conglomerate.
 
He ventured into politics in 2018 after he picked the nomination form under the platform of the PDP. Adeleke defeated him by just seven votes in the primary on July 23, 2018.
 
The Ile-Ogbo-born politician angrily defected to Accord Party after he withdrew his participation from the PDP governorship primary in March, this year, alleging that the process was skewed to favour Adeleke. Ogunbiyi clinched the ticket of the Accord Party, thereafter. Ever since he has been traversing the length and breadth of Osun canvassing for votes and reeling out his developmental manifesto to the electorates.

 
He is well educated, travelled and a successful businessman. His success in the private sector has endeared him to many in the state, who have been yearning for a leader with knowledge of how to manage the affairs of the state.
 
Ogunbiyi is from the Osun West senatorial district of the state, which many believe has been politically marginalised and deserves to be allowed to taste power.

Notwithstanding the beautiful profile of the 61-year-old Accord Party governorship candidate, he still has issues to deal with.

 
Firstly, Ogunbiyi has not won any political contest before and neither has he occupied any public office. Some believe he lacks the requisite experience to manage a state government.
 
Though, Accord Party came third after the supplementary election in the 2018 governorship poll in Osun, it lacks the geopolitical spread to win a governorship election. It is believed that the party is not popular when compared to APC or PDP in the state.
 
Ogunbiyi, though rich, may not have the capacity to withstand the power of incumbency that Oyetola enjoys and the financial muscle of the Adeleke dynasty.
 
The July 16 gubernatorial election in Osun is going to be another interesting episode to witness.

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