The affordability crisis in major Nigerian cities, fueled by soaring rents, stagnant incomes, and the absence of effective rent control policies, is pushing thousands of low- and middle-income earners to the brink. The development has propelled defaults on rent, forced evictions, and swelling court dockets filled with landlord-tenant disputes, CHINEDUM UWAEGBULAM reports.

As rent prices soar across major Nigerian cities, housing experts are warning of an affordability crisis that could lead to widespread defaults, evictions, and strained landlord-tenant relationships.

With landlords raising rents by as much as 100 per cent in some urban centres, many low- and middle-income earners are now spending unsustainable portions of their income on housing.

The hardest hit are young professionals, civil servants, artisans, students, and rural-to-urban migrants, those typically earning between N50,000 and N250,000 monthly. In cities like Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt, affordable housing options are shrinking, pushing many residents to either relocate to distant outskirts or downsize into shared apartments.

In Lagos suburbs such as Abule Egba, Egbeda, Ejigbo, and Ikotun, rents for mini-flats have increased from N400,000 to N500,000 to N800,000 to N1,000,000 within a year. Two-bedroom units that once cost N700,000 now command N1,200,000–N1,500,000. In prime areas like Ikeja and Lekki, two-bedroom flats now cost between N1.2 million and N3 million, double their rates in 2023.

The story is similar in Abuja, Kubwa and Gwarimpa, one-bedroom flats now rent for over N1 million, a 100–150 per cent increase over three years. One-bedroom flats range from N1.5 million to N2 million or more, depending on the neighbourhood.

The spike in rent has triggered an increase in legal disputes and evictions. Tenants are defaulting in large numbers, while landlords are demanding advance payments of up to two years, conditions that most renters struggle to meet.

In many instances, landlords are restructuring existing homes or converting them into short-let apartments to attract higher-paying tenants. This further reduces the availability of long-term rental housing for city dwellers.

Nigeria’s inflation reached 34.6 per cent by the end of 2024, eroding household income and increasing construction and maintenance costs. In Lagos and Abuja, land prices have increased by over 300 per cent in the past three years. For instance, a plot once sold between N12million to N18million, no commands a price tag of N40 million to N60 million.

With a national shortfall of over 28 million housing units and fewer than 100,000 built yearly, demand far outstrips supply. Regulation has been weak as Nigeria lacks a national rent control framework, and state tenancy laws are poorly enforced.

The Guardian gathered that many investors that were encouraged to invest in the real estate sector to improve both housing stock and qualities are regretting. “In the first quarter of this year alone, four organisations that came from Europe to promote housing projects, took away over $300 million in investment that would have remained in Nigeria because of devaluation and challenges bordering on return on capital investment,” sources said.

Currently, some civil servants spend four hours daily commuting from far-flung suburbs, families live in overcrowded conditions, while retirees are losing their only income when tenants default. The ripple effects reach beyond housing, impacting education, health, productivity, and social stability.

Experts urged the federal and state governments to intervene before the crisis escalates further by enforcing rent control measures in high-pressure zones, offering tax incentives to developers who build affordable rental housing, creating housing subsidy schemes for low-income earners, revising land policies to reduce acquisition and development costs and expanding public rental schemes for essential workers.

Additionally, they also said curbing the rapid conversion of rental units into short-let apartments in high-demand urban zones could help protect long-term rental supply. In 2024 alone, short-let rents in Lagos rose by over 200 per cent, with some areas like Ikoyi experiencing 60 per cent increases, according to the BuyLetLive Property Index.

The Chief Executive Officer of Northcourt, Ayo Ibaru, told The Guardian that rent increases are tied to macroeconomic headwinds such as inflation and foreign exchange volatility, which exacerbate an already chronic supply-demand imbalance.

“Demographic growth continues to drive demand. Import-linked construction material costs and expensive approvals restrict housing supply. Low purchasing power means homes are out of reach for most Nigerians. Landlords adjust rents in line with replacement costs, factoring in the expenses of providing basic utilities, power, waste disposal, water, security, and internet, that government fails to supply,” Ibaru explained.

According to him, protections for tenants in emerging economies are either absent or ineffective in Nigeria. As a result, many renters are pushed to city outskirts such as Ikorodu in Lagos or Kuje in Abuja, areas where affordable housing exists but transportation inefficiencies make daily commutes difficult.Ibaru observed that defaults are now more prevalent in residential markets than in commercial spaces.

“The mismatch between household cash flow and rent obligations is acute in mid-income households and small businesses. Late salary payments or client delays make consistent rent payment difficult. In office rentals, tenants resist increases but sometimes understand the landlord’s position. In high-end office space, a stalemate persists, landlords hold firm to minimum rent expectations, while tenants maintain budget ceilings.”

He emphasised the need for professional standards in property management, transparency in tenancy enforcement, and a review of the Land Use Act. “The Act lacks the ambition to drive Nigeria’s $1 trillion economy by 2030. Professional associations must convince the government that housing is a national priority.”

For now, the rental market seems tilted in favour of landlords, but growing unrest among tenants could shift the balance. As Ibaru noted, “The professional community must make housing a national priority because when housing fails, everything else begins to collapse.”

An estate surveyor and valuer, Mr Emeka Okoronkwo, painted a grim picture of the issue. “People are withdrawing their children from school just to keep a roof over their heads.” He blamed the crisis on the vast housing deficit and government’s bias toward building and selling homes rather than providing rentals.

In Lekki, he said, renewing a lease for a duplex can now costN20 million, with new tenants paying up toN30 million, prices far beyond middle-class reach. He called for government intervention through “rental coupons” to help civil servants and low-income earners meet housing needs, funded from savings generated by fuel subsidy removal.

Okoronkwo admitted that the courts are overwhelmed by eviction-related cases. He noted that developers now prefer to build for sale rather than for rent, given the risks of tenant default. He urged professional bodies, including the Nigerian Bar Association and the Chartered Institute of Bankers to jointly present policy recommendations to the Federal Government.

Another estate surveyor, Mr Olufemi Oyedele, identified demographic shifts as a major driver. “The Gen Z demographic is entering the housing market, seeking homes to start families. This influx, combined with inflation across essential sectors, transport, food, clothing, and housing, fuels rent hikes.”

According to him, landlords often increase rent for new tenants to match market rates but keep existing tenants at slightly lower levels. Defaults, disputes, and early lease terminations are now commonplace. To mitigate losses, he said, landlords are adopting flexible payment plans, co-living arrangements, and short-let conversions.