Trade experts have warned that the United States’ 12.5 per cent tariff imposition would increase the landing cost of Nigerian products in the U.S.

They also projected that prolonged export declines could reduce containerised export shipments, lower cargo throughput, affect tax receipts, weaken port-related and logistics sector revenue, and affect foreign exchange generation.

Reacting to the development, the Head of Research, Sea Empowerment and Research Centre (SEREC), Eugene Nweke, projected reduced shipping activities on U.S.-bound trade routes, weaker earnings for freight forwarders, and lower cargo-handling volumes at Nigerian seaports.

He said the sectors expected to be hardest hit include agricultural exports, cocoa and processed cocoa products, sesame seeds, cashew, leather products, manufactured consumer goods, selected mineral exports and some processed food products.

Eugene explained that the additional import duty would make them less attractive to importers seeking cheaper alternatives from countries with lower tariffs or domestic substitutes.

“Export-oriented manufacturers may record declining orders, thereby affecting production capacity. Any sustained decline in export receipts weakens dollar inflows into Nigeria and could intensify pressure on exchange-rate stability,” he stated.

According to Eugene, the U.S. remains one of Nigeria’s strategic export destinations, with exports valued at about $5.3 billion and imports of $3.9 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of around $1.4 billion .

He noted that many Nigerian products previously benefited from preferential access to the U.S. market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Still, he warned that the new tariff regime would erode part of that competitive advantage for affected exports.

Nweke maintained that the tariff also presents Nigeria with an opportunity to accelerate export diversification, improve production standards, strengthen trade diplomacy and enhance industrial competitiveness.

To mitigate the impact, Eugene recommended strengthening labour compliance systems and supply chain traceability, accelerating export diversification under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to reduce dependence on any single export market, and expanding value-added manufacturing to export more processed goods rather than raw commodities.

He also recommended reducing domestic logistics costs through port reforms, improved transport infrastructure and customs modernisation to offset part of the tariff burden.

Other recommendations include providing targeted export financing and incentives for affected manufacturers and agricultural exporters, promoting trade in emerging markets across Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America, and strengthening collaboration among the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, the Nigerian Export Promotion Council, the Nigeria Customs Service and private-sector exporters to meet international labour and environmental standards.

Director of International Trade at the Maritime Researchers and Authors Association of Nigeria (MARASSON), Sunday Ademuyiwa, said the tariff represents a major setback for Nigeria’s efforts to diversify its economy away from crude oil through increased non-oil exports and will make Nigerian products more expensive for American buyers, reducing their competitiveness in the U.S. market.

He explained that non-oil products such as cocoa, sesame seeds, cashew, ginger and processed foods have recorded significant growth in recent years and remain central to the Federal Government’s economic diversification strategy.

Ademuyiwa noted that the new development could undermine years of investment by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and the Nigerian Export-Import Bank (NEXIM) in expanding non-oil exports and promoting value addition in the agricultural sector.

He also warned that this could weaken investor confidence, particularly among businesses that established operations in Nigeria to take advantage of preferential access to the U.S. market under the AGOA.

According to him, the development highlights the need for Nigeria to reassess its export strategy and move beyond exporting raw materials by investing in local processing and manufacturing.

Ademuyiwa said instead of exporting raw cocoa and sesame seeds, Nigeria should focus on producing higher-value products such as chocolate and sesame oil, which attract better returns and are less vulnerable to tariff measures.

He urged the Federal Government to accelerate efforts to diversify export destinations by deepening trade relations within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the AfCFTA, the European Union, China and countries in the Middle East.

Ademuyiwa cautioned that failure to respond decisively could worsen poverty, reduce employment opportunities and perpetuate the country’s dependence on exporting raw materials while importing finished goods.

He, however, called for urgent action by policymakers and industry stakeholders to protect the export sector and sustain the momentum toward economic diversification.