The 2026 football World Cup format will be different, in one aspect that can’t be spun: It goes from the initial 32 teams to 48, with 12 groups of four, and a Round of 32. FIFA has also confirmed that 104 matches will be played during the course of the tournament. Those are structural changes and structure shapes opportunity.

So, is the new format biased in favour of smaller nations?

The answer depends on how you define favour.

Yes, in terms of access. More qualification slots dramatically improves the chances for the smaller-nations to make it into the World Cup. For many that is a transformational achievement.

Partly, in terms of progression. The third-place pathway opens up more opportunities to get to the knockout stages with a real chance to get out of the group phase.

Probably not, in terms of winning the trophy. The longer knockout bracket and greater value placed on squad depth still tips the balance in favour of the football powers.

Why smaller nations gain advantages: access is the biggest prize

Under the expanded allocation model, confederations receive a lot more direct qualification places:

AFC (Asia): 8

CAF (Africa): 9

CONCACAF (North & Central America): 6

CONMEBOL (South America): 6

OFC (Oceania): 1

UEFA (Europe): 16

Intercontinental (Europe): 6

Plus a six-team intercontinental playoff tourney

The most obvious outcome of expansion is qualification. More slots mean more nations experiencing the World Cup and more often for the first time. For football development that’s huge. It translates to;

more funding

more elite exposure

more lift in recruitment for dual nationals

and more internal belief

For fans and federations qualification is a sort of victory in itself. The new World Cup format leads right to that milestone to be more probable.

The second benefit: third place can move forward

The top two teams in each group will advance as well as the top eight third-place teams, meaning that we have a bigger knockout bracket than ever before. That’s not a small tweak, either; it changes the way that smaller teams can plot their path.

In formats played previously a smaller nation could play well, finish third and go home. Now, third place can be a door, if you manage one win, one draw and no heavy defeats which could ruin your goal difference.

That “heavy defeat” part is important. Smaller nations often don’t need to beat everyone but to stay alive.

The psychological benefit – fewer must-win games early

When there are more advancement slots there are changed group stage incentives. Big nations could get a little conservative perhaps early on as draw isn’t damaging. That can be helpful to smaller nations because it reduces the pressure of wave-after-wave that they sometimes experience.

At the same time, it can also hurt them: If favourites play risk-averse football then smaller nations may get fewer open game chances to steal an upset.

However, the format still can favour big nations overall

Here’s the key, a World Cup title is not one upset. It’s about surviving a whole tournament.

With a Round of 32 adds an extra knockout round. Extra games tend to reward squad depth, rotation quality and recovery resources and tactical adaptability.

In other words, the teams with the best infrastructures get a better chance to make up for a bad day. Upsets still happen but the more matches that must be won to win the trophy, the less of a chance there will be for a true outsider champion.

The hidden complexity: More teams equal more mismatches

Expansion brings in more lower ranked teams which can bring:

bigger scorelines

more goal differences distortion

and group dynamic in which one or two matches are “damage control” for minor sides

If one smaller nation is unlucky with the draw and takes a heavy loss, there is a chance of their third place hopes to be ruined quickly because goal difference still matters.

So who is actually “favoured”?

You can think of the new format as two different tournaments layered on top of each other:

The qualification and group stage tournament

This phase is now in favour of the smaller nations, by increasing access and providing more avenues of advancement.

The championship tournament

This phase is still in favour of the big nations as depth and consistency become even more valuable in more knock out rounds.

The practical betting angle

From a betting point of view, the expanded format may lead to more opportunities in different markets, for example:

underdog double chance markets (where draws are important)

to make it from the group markets (third place paths change pricing)

cautious early totals (risk management might be a team priority in Matchday 1)

Bottom line

The new World Cup format obviously has an advantage for smaller nations, in terms of participation and the chance to make the knockouts. But, winning the trophy is likely to be still a show for the heavyweights, since more games and more knockout opportunities are usually rewarded to teams built for long term endurance in tournaments. But, anything can happen in football.