In the last decade, Nigeria’s startup ecosystem has achieved what once seemed impossible: birthing a wave of digital-first companies, attracting over $5 billion in venture capital, and putting Lagos on the map as Africa’s unofficial tech capital. But as the buzz grows louder and the unicorn count ticks upward, one uncomfortable truth lies beneath — our tech ecosystem is overwhelmingly dominated by business model clones rather than technological innovation. While payment processors, digital lenders, and e-commerce platforms proliferate, true deep tech ventures — those built on original research and development in frontier technologies — remain conspicuously absent. So the question is, where are Nigeria’s deep tech startups?

By deep tech, I mean entities grounded in fundamental scientific innovation — fields like artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, biotechnology, and clean energy. These are companies that don’t just repackage existing infrastructure with better UX, but build entirely new capabilities that transform industries.

Our most celebrated startups primarily adapt business models proven elsewhere. Payment gateways mimic Stripe and Square. Lending apps replicate models from Southeast Asia. E-commerce platforms follow Amazon’s blueprint, but all with a touch of ‘Naija spice.’ Not to come off as diminishing these achievements, it’s worth acknowledging that these sectors meet urgent local needs and offer faster paths to revenue. On the flipside, deep tech requires longer timelines, higher upfront investment, and a different kind of risk appetite. Unfortunately, domestic VCs and others within the continent are still largely wired for B2C scale, a relatively short investment horizon, and perhaps not ready for the risk that comes with organic science-based innovation.

That said, deep tech ventures differ fundamentally. They create entirely new technological capabilities rather than novel applications of existing technology. They typically emerge from research environments, require longer runways to commercialization, and possess defensible intellectual property. Most importantly, they solve foundational problems instead of symptoms. Deep tech ecosystems thrive on strong university-industry collaboration, which helps to translate groundbreaking research into commercial products. But the stark research infrastructure deficit makes such collaboration non-existent. The ecosystem is also built on outstanding tech talents. Although the country boasts world-class software engineers, a shortage of scientists and other specialized talent with deep tech expertise remains a significant challenge. As alluded earlier, the majority of the VCs seek returns within 5 years, and that’s incompatible with deep tech’s longer commercialization pathways. Hence, patient capital willing to wait 7-10 years for breakthrough technologies is virtually non-existent.

As the world moves toward intelligent automation, biotech-driven healthcare, and clean energy, Nigeria risks being left behind not just as a consumer, but as a non-participant in the next wave of innovation. In AI alone, Sub-Saharan Africa produces just 0.89% of the world’s peer-reviewed research publications, and 0.12% of AI granted patents, according to the Stanford AI Index Report. Most of these are attributed to South Africa. Nigeria, despite its population and software talent, isn’t in sight. Meanwhile, the kinds of startups that can solve uniquely African problems — like affordable battery storage for off-grid energy, low-cost diagnostics using computer vision, or drought-resistant seeds for farmers — will not come from payments apps. They will come from deep tech innovation rooted in our realities.

These structural barriers, and many more, are interconnected. Addressing these requires coordinated efforts across multiple stakeholders. Firstly, the government must reimagine research funding. Rather than scattering minimal resources across institutions, Nigeria should establish focused centres of excellence with critical mass in specific domains. The National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) should dedicate a significant portion of its intervention fund specifically to deep tech ventures. Sadly, our academic incentive structure rewards publication over commercialization. We need technology transfer offices in every major institution, revised promotion criteria that value patents and spinoffs, and mandatory industrial sabbaticals for engineering and science faculty. While the Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA) has engaged in laudable funding initiatives for startups, it should establish a dedicated deep tech fund with matched private capital and tax incentives. Traditional VCs should explore milestone-based financing more appropriate for extended R\&D phases.

Deep tech development addresses existential challenges: climate adaptation, food security, endemic disease, and energy independence. Without indigenous innovation capacity, Nigeria remains perpetually dependent on imported solutions ill-suited to our context. Moreover, it’s worth highlighting that business model innovations provide diminishing returns as markets saturate. So, five more payment processors or lending apps won’t transform our economic trajectory. But breakthroughs in agricultural biotechnology, distributed renewable energy, or AI systems optimized for Nigerian languages and contexts could unlock entirely new growth vectors.

Nigeria doesn’t lack talent or ambition — it lacks the systems to channel them toward our most consequential problems. The country that solves this puzzle won’t just produce the next billion-dollar unicorn; it will establish the foundation for the next century of African prosperity.

Abubakar is a data expert and writes about fintech, digital infrastructure, and policy