Private equity ponders dismal Brexit outlook

Bank of England

Bank of England
Bank of England

Britain’s vote to leave the European Union has put private equity firms on the back foot, forcing them to stall some planned deals, reconsider fundraising strategies and possibly move staff to centers that will remain in the bloc.

The referendum result, which caught financial markets by surprise, is making institutional investors have second thoughts about committing to new funds for private equity (PE) deals in Britain, according to people in the industry.

On top of this, lenders are reluctant to provide credit for such acquisitions in a year when the value of private equity deals in Britain has been at its lowest level since 2009, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Many deals, which have been in the works for months are now hanging in the balance.

“We’ve had all the stages of grief. People wasted entire days just talking about it (Brexit),” said one London-based private equity banker. “Now we’re basically ignoring any UK deals because no one wants to invest in the UK.”

Among those in the balance is the sale of Telefonica’s (TEF.MC) British mobile phone operator O2. Sources close to the planned transaction had expected it to gain pace in late June, once the referendum was out of the way – assuming that Britons would decide to stay in the EU.

Instead private equity firms – including a consortium of Apax [APAX.UL] and CVC [CVC.UL] – which had been looking to submit their offers, are now in wait-and-see mode, several of the sources said.

U.S. buyout firm Apollo Global Management LLC (APO.N), which has been preparing a bid for months, is still actively working on the deal which may value the company at up to 9 billion pounds ($12 billion), the sources said.

Spokespeople for Telefonica, Apollo, CVC and Apax declined to comment.

One problem is the difficulty of raising debt through sterling-denominated high yield bonds, a favorite financing tool for PE. Only three such issues have gone ahead this year due to uncertainty over the outcome of the June 23 referendum.

Since Britons opted for Brexit, the pound GBP= has plunged to a 31-year low against the dollar, and prices of sterling high yield bonds have fallen. Concerns that Britain might be heading into recession due to the economic shock have also made it almost impossible to fund transactions using other tools such as subordinated debt.

“It is hard to raise financing for big UK deals in this environment,” said one source familiar with the Apollo bid, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Borrowing in euros and dollars instead of sterling is possible, but would be complex and costly. Most lenders would in any case shy away from British acquisitions, whatever the currency.

Fearing a possible recession, PE firms are likely to hold off buying and selling in sectors where consumer spending may drop, such as retail, luxury and automotives.

The deep uncertainty surrounding the British economy is also making it difficult to value assets in any deal.

“Does your financial model need to factor in a mild or a deep recession?” said Ken McGrath, co-head of financial sponsors EMEA at Barclays (BARC.L).

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