What eventually did the most damage to OBJ’s political rating more than the erratic election that brought in his successor was the well schemed but tactically countered third term agenda. Recall, that his previous political miscalculations gave Tinubu the impetus to improvise on his state economic earnings, which gave the state huge financial chest that he leveraged on in riding to the Nigerian political summit. Conversely, the story of PDP would have been different if he, like Tinubu had planned an enduring political succession plan and continuity. The unfortunate death of President Yar’ Adua, his successor only half way into his first term in office was considered an end anticipated by OBJ which led to another ill-prepared president to assume the mantle of authority. No sooner after, OBJ washed his hand off Yar’Adua’s successor in office; a move which also impacted the party grossly and put the sustenance of his administration’s legacies in tatters.

GEJ 2012 Subsidy Removal Attempt
Timing in politics is a very important tool that a politician must master. Some have demonstrated over the years that they are masters in political timing and strategizing. Some sadly miscalculated on their timing despite best intentions. One clear example of wrong timing in Nigeria political terrain is the attempt at subsidy removal by Jonathan’s administration when oil refineries in the land were in comatose and crude oil prices soaring in the international market.

The opposition lashed on that attempt by brainwashing the Nigerian electorate that they made a grave mistake voting him and PDP back into power. He was depicted as a clueless and incompetent president. The tone was set for his administration to struggle to the very last day in office to demonstrate its sincerity to the Nigerian project and its attempt at re-engineering the polity he admitted was running on institutions weaker than most of the actors manning it. The aspersion against GEJ’s government ultimately led to its defeat in the 2015 polls. Interestingly, the same key actors that mobilised against him for his attempt at subsidy removal are now the same characters likely to be saddled with the responsibility of implementing the policy under far stiffer and more challenging times for Nigerians.

Naira redesign and cashless policy
One of the most traumatic situations the Nigerian state imposed on its citizens since the Nigerian civil war was the 2023 Naira redesign/cashless policy implementation of the Buhari’s administration leading to the 2023 general election. While we can argue on the election being or not being free and fair; no one can with certainty argue that the declared outcome would have been different but for the policy. However, it is a known fact that majority of Nigerians, Nigerian civil societies and the vast majority of the international observers attested to the fact that the process failed to meet the basic threshold of electoral credibility. On the other hand, the burden of the policy was carried by Nigerians for no reason. I fail to see a good or clear legacy that the Buhari’s administration can legitimately boast to have bestowed on Nigerian having failed in delivering a free and fair election which according to him, was to be his major legacy.

The people will likely remember the hardship caused by the policy as well as his handling of the governance that led to an unprecedented level of immigration out of the country. The old and young continues to check out on a scale that will surprise even Andrew who was bent on checking out of the country in the mid-1980s when the same personality was in office as a military ruler. Poor Andrew could never have anticipated the unprecedented level of Japa syndrome as we call it today in his grave. Though, Andrew eventually opted to stay but his country betrayed the promises in the lyrics of ‘Nigeria Go Survive’ as he was forced to finally checkout from a hospital in far away India where he sought medical help. Although the president during Eid-el-Filtri apologies for his shortcomings and sought forgiveness of offended Nigerians, He must make it a point of duty to sing the apology like national anthem from now till May 29. That way, Nigerians who are very forgiving may find it more compelling to forgive him. Sadly, we are now back spending the old currency while Nigerians hardly sight the supposed new notes anymore nowadays.

Over reliance of political parties on party’s structure
Over the years, Nigeria’s leading political parties always placed reliance on political structures and political goodwill to the detriment of engaging in a robust issue based political ideology and manifestoes. Many even have no regard for public debate. This anomaly became more pronounced in the period leading to the 2023 general election in Nigeria. Both the ruling and the opposition party got the shock of their lives with the dazing performance of the Labour Party and his flag bearer in the presidential election which for the very first time turned Nigeria into what may be regarded as a three party state despite practicing multi-party system for the majority of her political history. The people, particularly the youth spoke loudly that it is voters, and not necessarily the political power brokers within the various communities that matter the most in an election.

The ripple caused by the aggregated youth votes is largely held to be at the core of the inability of the electoral umpire to live up to its own basic promise and guidelines. The failure of INEC to upload election result as it repeatedly promised on its IREV porter in real time undermines the credibility of the process. It is true that the flag bearer of the ruling party have since been declared the winner and president elect. The fact that he lost his strong hold in Lagos, lost his controversial home state of Osun, lost the seat of political power in Nigeria Abuja, and also lost the second most populated state in the Nigeria according to the population census are situations that will further put a slur on the authenticity of his victory. Also, the main opposition party is in fact the biggest loser as it is still wondering how it lost its status as a ruling party and very nearly lost the position of the main opposition party in the land. PDP miscalculated by over-reliance on already challenged political structures across the country.

Continuing failure to restructure
Successive governments failed to restructure the entire body polity; the sovereign national conference of the mid-1990s was supposed to set a new tone. However, its recommendations were never fully implemented. The Latter national conferences were organised by Obasanjo’sadministration in 2005 with little to show for the funfair, GEJ’s administration also made a last-minute spirited attempt at a national conference in 2014. The recommendations of the 2014 conference were also not implemented before the 2015 general election which he lost. Buhari’s administration made a disappointing complete U-turn on restructuring. Further failure to restructure the polity will spell future doom for the country in light of some recent developments in the country.
Concluded
Fayemi can be reached via [email protected]