World airlines have recorded marginal increase in airfreight demand, sustaining moderate growth momentum. The International Air Transport Association (IATA), yesterday, released data for September 2023 global air cargo markets, showing 1.9 per cent increase, compared to September 2022 levels.

Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), was up 12.1 per cent compared to September 2022. Growth was largely related to international belly capacity, which rose 31.5 per cent year-on-year as airlines scaled up operations to meet peak-northern summer travel season demand.

There are several factors in the operating environment. In September, both the manufacturing output Purchasing Managers Index or PMI (49.7) and new export orders PMI (47.7) saw a slight improvement to the previous month. They remained, however, below the critical 50-point threshold, indicating a continuing, but slightly slower, annual decline in global manufacturing production and exports.

Global cross-border trade contracted for the fifth month in a row in August, decreasing 3.8 per cent year-over-year. This reflects the cooling global macroeconomic environment.

Yearly growth in U.S. consumer prices stabilised in September at 3.7 per cent, the same rate as in August. In Europe and Japan consumer price inflation slowed by 1.0 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, to 4.9 per cent and 3.0 per cent, (also respectively). In China, deflation-fighting policy measures saw an annual rise in consumer prices of 0.1 per cent.

In September, the average price of jet fuel was $131.0 per barrel, marking a 43.1 per cent increase from the May 2023 price. Recouping some of this added cost from surcharges in September contributed to the first increase in air cargo yields since November 2022.

IATA’s Director-General, Willie Walsh, said air cargo eked out modest growth in September despite falling trade volumes and high jet fuel prices.

“That clearly shows the strength of air cargo’s value proposition. With the key export order and manufacturing PMIs hovering near positive territory, we can be cautiously optimistic for a strong year-end peak season,” Walsh said.

In the regions, African airlines saw their air cargo volumes decline by 0.1 per cent in September 2023, despite the strong growth of demand on the Africa-Asia trade lane (+12.8 per cent). This was an improvement in performance compared to August (-3.5 per cent). Capacity was 2.7 per cent above September 2022 levels.

Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes increase by 7.7 per cent in September 2023 compared to the same month in 2022. This was a significant improvement in performance compared to August (+4.6 per cent).

Carriers in the region benefited from growth on three major trade lanes: Europe-Asia (+9.6 per cent), Middle East-Asia (+7.0 per cent) and Africa-Asia (+12.8 per cent). Available capacity for the region’s airlines increased by 30.5 per cent compared to September 2022 as more belly capacity came online from the passenger side of the business (a year ago, the key Asian markets of Japan and China were still largely under severe COVID-19 travel restrictions).