The Wembley Stadium fight has been dubbed the first all-English world heavyweight title fight in three decades, and the iconic arena has reportedly been sold out. The ringside is expected to see the top drawers in sports and entertainment, including Cristiano Ronaldo, as part of “Riyadh Season” or Riyadh Season Card–Wembley edition, a devilishly seductive brand label that places the kingdom at the centre of the sporting universe via the global appeal of the heavyweight sport, including Ronaldoball and Formula One as well as boxing.”
When Lennox Lewis and Frank Bruno clubbed away at each other for the WBC crown in Cardiff 31 years ago, the fight drew a live gate of approximately 25,700. You can add 70,000 to that number on Saturday, such is the marketing pull of top-end heavyweights in the social media age.
Joshua is challenging Dubois for the IBF world heavyweight belt vacated by former undisputed champion Oleksandr Usyk, who has beaten both combatants, Joshua twice.
Expert opinion slightly favours Joshua, with the obvious caveat that when two big men collide, the matter is only one punch from being settled by either.
Joshua has lost three times, Andy Ruiz Jr inflicting a first shock defeat on the occasion of his American debut, a loss since avenged, and to Usyk, who proved just too clever in two hard fights.
Dubois hit the wall that is juggernaut Joe Joyce when the pair were both unbeaten, his punches bouncing off the chin and guard of an obdurate opponent. Usyk simply knew too much for him. Dubois failed to make the final bell in both, which some felt pointed to a deficit in stamina and, perhaps, fortitude.
Joshua has the greater experience and higher-grade victims. Though a big puncher, he does not rely on single-shot power, throwing combinations to greater effect. The defeat to Ruiz was as much bad luck as poor technique, caught with a haymaker while going in for the big finish.
The defeats to Usyk exposed a career-long deficit in early learning. Joshua was a late starter and though he won Olympic gold, he did not have the deep amateur experience that shaped Usyk, who lost only 15 of 335 bouts, into an all-time great. It was Usyk’s instinct for danger and all-round ring IQ that did for Joshua, who could not land clean and was frequently caught off guard.
Dubois is a beast of a puncher, likened by some to the great Sonny Liston for his shuffling threat and destructive power. While that proved unanswerable against lesser gods, elite fighters sensed the danger and acted accordingly.
Joyce survived because of a freakish capacity to take a shot and his indefatigable engine that simply exhausted Dubois to the point of heartbreak. Usyk was troubled by Dubois early, particularly by a body shot controversially called low by the referee, but recovered to overwhelm Dubois.
Former WBA featherweight champion, Barry McGuigan, whose son Shane previously trained Dubois, agrees that Joshua starts favourite but told inew.co.uk he has a fancy for Dubois. “Because of his achievements and stature, there is a strong case for Joshua. He will seek to control the fight from a distance and put it on Dubois in the second half of the fight. But Dubois is improving. He is better at coming forward, moving his head, and engaging. He will look to jab with Joshua and then land a big shot with either hand. My gut feeling is he will knock him out.”
Ex-fighter turned trainer/manager, Dave Coldwell, said: “AJ is not going to throw single right hands, he’s a great combination puncher and when he starts landing he goes through the gears really well. Dubois can really, really punch. His jab is like a jackhammer. If he hits AJ, can he turn his lights out? Yes. So, it’s a fight you can’t be absolutely sure about. There is jeopardy for either man. That’s why tickets are flying.”
Olympic bronze medallist Frazer Clarke believes the greater variety and speed of Joshua’s punches will decide it: “Daniel is young and hungry, but I feel if he gets hit half as much by AJ as he did by Hrgovic it’s a different fight, different power. You don’t get hit by 30 backhands from AJ and live to tell the tale, you are asleep on the floor. But Dubois is strong, confident, and fit. He thrives on a bit of pressure. When people expect you to lose, you find a reason to be better than you have ever been. Anthony Joshua at Wembley, it does not get much bigger than that.”
Jeremiah Milton has sparred both and calls it 50/50: “Things could go south pretty quickly (for either). Dubois is young, Joshua determined. Dubois has developed more willingness to stay in there. He’s a lot stronger mentally and tougher. They are both on the upswing (form). It’s heavyweight boxing. We just gotta see it.”
Joshua has won four on the spin since losing for the second time to Usyk two years ago.
The sense of mortification and disappointment he experienced then has gradually fallen away and after the spectacular knockout of Francis Ngannou, the UFC fighter who dropped a split decision against Fury, he says he could have as many as five fights left in him.
In a fight that will almost certainly end early, a stoppage win for Joshua paves the way for one more tilt at supremacy against the winner of December’s showdown between Usyk and Fury.
