. Expenses swallow 95% of NNPC’s September revenue
Oil firm insists N10tr remitted in eight months
Nigeria’s oil sector has once again dragged overall government revenue performance, as the latest data showed that the country’s non-oil tax agency received N31.38 trillion in nine months.
With the country expanding tax revenue, the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) outperforms targets while oil-linked institutions underperform sharply.
According to new data by Agora Policy, which tracked agencies’ contributions to the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) from January to September 2025, only three of five key revenue-generating agencies met or surpassed expectations.
FIRS, the Nigerian Customs Service (NCS), and the Ministry of Solid Minerals Development (MSMD) all posted positive performance to make up for poor performance from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).
FIRS, the largest contributor, outperformed its N17.47 trillion budget with actual remittance of N21.21 trillion, representing a 21 per cent increase above projections. The Customs Service, budgeted to generate N2.89 trillion, delivered N3.04 trillion, a modest five per cent over performance.
The MSMD, though contributing a smaller share, doubled its target, remitting N0.06 trillion against a N0.03 trillion budget.
However, the oil sector’s performance remained dismal as NUPRC recorded only N6.22 trillion against a N10.84 trillion target, a shortfall of 43 per cent.
Even more striking, the NNPCL, according to Agora, contributed a meagre N0.53 trillion compared with its N3.15 trillion budget, translating to a massive 83 per cent underperformance.
The persistent underperformance of oil-linked revenues reflects Nigeria’s struggles to meet its oil production targets under the 2025 budget. Despite ambitious forecasts, the country has been unable to sustain daily production above 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), far below its 2 million bpd benchmark.
An analysis of production data revealed consistent shortfalls throughout the year. In January 2025, Nigeria produced 1.5 million bpd, 500,000 bpd below target, resulting in a loss of about 15.5 million barrels or roughly $1.2 billion.
February saw output slip to 1.4 million bpd, widening losses to 16.8 million barrels and another $1.2 billion in missed revenue, based on an average oil price of $75 per barrel.
March output improved slightly to 1.6 million bpd, but still fell short by 400,000 bpd, an estimated $892.8 million in forgone income.
By April, production dropped again to 1.486 million bpd, missing the target by 420,000 bpd and costing the government another $856 million. In May, total output stood at 45 million barrels, valued at about $2.7 billion, but the country failed to pump an additional 1.8 million barrels, losing roughly $1.6 billion in potential revenue.
While oil revenue continues to lag, the NNPCL yesterday insisted it has made statutory remittances totalling N10 trillion between January and August 2025.
The company, in a monthly performance report released, declared N4.2 trillion in revenue for September alone but posted a profit of only N216 billion, implying that about 95 per cent of its earnings went into operating expenses.
The company’s profit pattern shows the heavy cost burden in the petroleum value chain, considering that in April, it posted a profit of N926 billion; in May, N1.05 trillion; in June, N905 billion, but in July, its profit nosedived to N185 billion despite the revenue averaging N4 trillion monthly.
