Since Nigeria’s return to constitutional democracy in 1999, gubernatorial contests in Kwara State have been fair in terms of participation across the three senatorial districts, Kwara Central, Kwara South, and Kwara North, with each region producing aspirants and candidates.
Yet, despite the appearance of equal opportunity, Kwara Central has been in power for 18 years, while Kwara South has governed for eight years. Analysts attribute the dominance of Kwara Central to a mix of diplomacy, voter strength, incumbency advantage, and long-standing political influence, particularly within the capital city, Ilorin. This has created a pattern in which other zones contest competitively but rarely secure the top seat due to the power of incumbency.
As the 2027 election cycle gathers momentum, the field is already becoming crowded, especially within Kwara Central. Several politicians from the zone, across political parties, have signalled their interest in the governorship race. Among those publicly or indirectly positioning themselves are Senator Salihu Mustapha, Ambassador Yahaya Seriki, Professor Abubakar Suleiman, and Engr. Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu. Their early declarations underscore a familiar reality: political stakeholders in Kwara Central remain confident that the seat is within reach once again.
In Kwara North, aspirants who have also shown interest include Rt. Hon. Salihu Yakubu Danladi and Senator Sadiq Suleiman.
Behind the scenes, however, a more complex political game appears to be unfolding. Multiple insiders claimed that the incumbent governor, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, CON, is subtly amplifying the “Kwara North Lokan” narrative, a campaign suggesting that it is Kwara North’s turn to produce the next governor. In theory, this aligns with equity arguments often promoted by advocates of rotational leadership. But critics within the state’s political circles believe the manoeuvre is less about fairness and more about strategic distraction, aimed at diverting the attention of Kwara North and Kwara South while ensuring that real momentum remains with Central aspirants.
This suspicion is reinforced by the recent activism of Kwara North traditional leaders, who have been visiting their counterparts in Kwara South to solicit support for the northern rotational claim.
Observers noted that the messaging closely mirrors the governor’s political style and may be designed to maintain emotional investment in a promise the Central zone has not historically honoured.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that no major political figure from Kwara South has formally declared interest in the 2027 race, raising questions about why the zone is being pressured into negotiations that have not formally begun.
A key point raised by political observers is that only Kwara Central, which has the largest voting population, has the leverage to guarantee a power shift to Kwara North. For this reason, some argue that Kwara North’s traditional leaders may have been more strategic if they had directed their appeals towards Ilorin’s royal institutions, including the Emir of Ilorin and influential traditional stakeholders whose constituencies anchor the political strength of the Central zone. Instead, their focus on Kwara South is widely seen as a sign of misdirection, possibly encouraged by the incumbent’s inner circle.
Insiders described the governor’s posture as a dual-track strategy: projecting support for a northern turn in the name of fairness, while quietly backing his Central brethren and allies who are seeking the APC ticket. This allows him to play both hero and neutral arbiter, promoting unity while implicitly facilitating the continuation of Central dominance.
These tactics, while not unusual in Nigerian politics, reinforce the perception that the “Lokan” narratives often function as bargaining tools rather than binding commitments.
Historically, the Ilorin political establishment in Kwara Central has never voluntarily relinquished power through zonal bargaining alone, and there is little evidence that this trend will change.
Even when former Governor Bukola Saraki supported and delivered former Governor AbdulFatai Ahmed from Kwara South as governor, the relationship appeared to be one of political hierarchy, with his interests firmly protected. For many critics, this is why the growing vulnerability of Kwara South is troubling.
Its political class appears susceptible to the “deceptive Lokan” rhetoric despite facing significant socio-economic challenges such as rising insecurity, deepening poverty, underdevelopment, and increasing rural-to-urban migration. These challenges, also prevalent in Kwara North, strengthen the argument that both zones should pursue the governorship with renewed determination rather than relying on sentimental appeals or perceived assurances.
The emerging “Igbomina Lokan” sentiment in Kwara South reflects the same scheme. Like the northern rotational demand, it is increasingly viewed not as a consensus-building strategy but as another opportunity for political actors in the Central zone to divide southern and northern ambitions by fuelling ethnic sentiments while keeping the path clear for a Central flag bearer. Experts note that no modern democratic system has produced electoral victory based solely on ethnic or sub-ethnic sentiment. Political parties ultimately prioritise candidates with the best chances of winning statewide support, a detribalised leader.
As political manoeuvring intensifies ahead of 2027, analysts and civil society groups are calling for a shift from divisive tactics and short-term regional calculations. They argue that Kwara’s political stakeholders must look beyond ethnic allegiances, patronage networks, and familiar divide-and-rule tactics. Instead, the state’s progress may depend on supporting candidates with proven competence, capacity, and integrity, regardless of their senatorial district.
Kwara’s next political transition will test whether the state’s leaders can break from entrenched patterns or whether traditional power strategies will once again determine the outcome and future of the state.
Shaba writes from Abuja
