To insulate itself against rising global supply disruption and meet demand, financial experts and energy stakeholders across Africa are seeking to raise about $120 billion to build six Dangote-scale refineries.

However, as disruption to energy supplies from the Middle East triggers a resurgence in global coal demand, countries across Europe and Asia turn to the fuel to secure power amid tightening Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) markets.

Meanwhile, more than 130 civil society organisations (CSOs) have urged global finance ministers attending International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, D.C., to push for an end to the ongoing conflict in South West Asia and impose windfall taxes on oil and gas companies benefiting from the crisis.

Global oil majors may be frowning on the war casualties, who pray for an end to the war, as they are on course to reap an estimated $234 billion windfall, even as Nigeria records a modest recovery in crude production that still falls short of its targets.

Petrol supply in the West African country fell sharply in February 2026 despite a surge in domestic refining, as a steep drop in imports offset gains from local production, exposing the fragile balance sustaining the country’s downstream fuel market.

The energy stakeholders, who gathered at the African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA) Week yesterday in Cape Town, South Africa, warned that persistent crude supply constraints, pricing inefficiencies and financing gaps continue to undermine the continent’s energy security.

They insisted that Africa must urgently scale up refining capacity or risk deepening its dependence on imported petroleum products despite abundant natural resources.

Chairman of OPAC Refineries and founder of OMSA, Momoh Oyarekhua, said Africa’s refining landscape was evolving, particularly in Nigeria, where private sector participation has grown steadily following decades of state dominance.

“We have many licensed operators within the refining space, including a number of private refineries, ours among them. Other licence holders are at various stages of development, reflecting a gradual transition from government-owned to privately driven refining capacity,” Oyarekhua said.

Senior Director and Head of Infrastructure (Transport & Logistics) at the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), Osam Iyahen, said Africa’s energy sovereignty requires control of the entire value chain, from upstream production to downstream refining and distribution, ensuring that African resources are processed and consumed within the continent.

WOOD Mackenzie, in a report yesterday, showed that constraints on LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint, had forced utilities and industrial users to switch back to thermal coal, pushing prices sharply higher.

Benchmark coal prices have already climbed in recent months as FOB Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal averaged $126 per tonne in March 2026, rising to around $132 per tonne in recent trades, up from $114 per tonne in February. Other key benchmarks have followed a similar trend, with FOB Richards Bay averaging about $110 per tonne and CIF ARA prices reaching $123 per tonne.

Coming despite global commitments to decarbonisation, Principal Analyst, Bulk Commodities at Wood Mackenzie, Sushmita Vazirani, said that with supply shocks of the present scale, coal becomes a critical fallback for energy security.

While the Strait of Hormuz does not directly handle significant volumes of coal shipments, the disruption to gas flows has had ripple effects across global energy markets.

Major coal exporters, including Australia, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Colombia, remain largely insulated from direct logistical impact, but are benefiting from rising demand.

In North-East Asia, the report said coal-fired power generation remained resilient despite typically weaker seasonal demand. Taiwan is preparing to restart the 2.1-gigawatt Hsinta coal-fired power plant, which could consume an estimated 5.5 million tonnes of coal yearly.

IN a joint statement yesterday, the coalition warned that rising energy prices linked to the conflict were worsening global hardship and deepening debt burdens across developing countries, particularly in Africa.

To draw attention to their demands, activists projected the message “No Bombs, No Barrels” on the headquarters of the IMF and World Bank during the meetings, which are taking place amid warnings of a possible global recession.

The coalition argued that governments failed to address the economic fallout of the war, despite evidence that energy companies were recording significant profits while households struggled with rising living costs.

According to the statement, more than $100 billion was extracted from consumers in a single month through increased energy prices linked to the conflict. The groups called on governments to redirect such profits into public services and support for vulnerable households.

They outlined four key demands: a permanent end to the war, taxation of fossil fuel windfall profits, investment in renewable energy and sustainable agriculture, and cancellation of debt owed by Global South countries.

Executive Director of the Arab NGO Network for Development, Ziad Abdel Samad, said the credibility of global governance institutions was weakening due to their inability to secure a lasting end to violence.

He warned that continued imbalance in power and representation within multilateral systems risked turning global governance into “a tool of dominance rather than a framework for fairness.”

AN analysis by The Guardian of the UK, citing data from Rystad Energy, indicates that the world’s largest oil and gas companies, alongside major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, could see massive gains if crude prices average $100 per barrel this year. The surge is linked to the ongoing United States-Israeli conflict involving Iran, which has tightened supply expectations and buoyed market sentiment.

In the first month of the conflict, the top 100 oil and gas firms reportedly generated over $30 million per hour in paper profits. Market indicators remain firm, with Brent crude for June delivery rising to $95.60 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded at $91.87.

Among the biggest beneficiaries, Saudi Aramco is projected to earn an additional $25.5 billion, followed by Kuwait Petroleum Corporation with $12.1 billion. ExxonMobil and Chevron are also expected to post significant gains of $11 billion and $9.2 billion, respectively.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s oil sector is showing signs of recovery. Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that production rose by 4.2 per cent to 1.546 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March, up from 1.483mbpd in February. Crude output alone increased by 5.2 per cent to 1.382mbpd.

Despite the improvement, production remains below the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota of 1.5mbpd and the government’s 2026 budget benchmark of 1.84 mbpd.

Earlier, NUPRC had said the country’s production moved to 1.8mbpd, forcing the Finance Minister, Wale Edun, to describe the recent rebound as “fantastic news”, urging sustained output growth towards the two million barrels per day target.

LATEST data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) show that total Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) supply declined to 39.5 million litres per day in February 2026, down from 64.9 million litres recorded in January.

The 25.4 million litres per day contraction was driven primarily by a significant reduction in import volumes, even as domestic supply, boosted by the Dangote Refinery, remained relatively strong.

A breakdown of the supply structure indicates that local refining contributed 36.5 million litres per day in February, while imports collapsed to just three million litres per day, marking one of the lowest import levels in recent months.

This compares with January figures, where domestic supply stood at 40.1 million litres per day alongside 24.6 million litres per day of imports, highlighting the scale of the adjustment in external sourcing.