An aviation analyst, Alex Nwuba, has proposed a regulator-supervised passenger pooling system for Nigerian airlines as a temporary measure to curb mounting losses driven by rising fuel costs and persistent low-load factors on some domestic routes.

The suggestion, similar to code-sharing practice, comes on the back of escalating prices of aviation fuel, which has reportedly increased by close to 300 per cent since February 28, when the Middle East conflict started.

Nwuba, in an interview with The Guardian in Lagos, warned that the current operating model, where multiple airlines deploy almost-empty aircraft on the same routes within identical time windows, was no longer sustainable, particularly as Jet A1 prices soar.

According to him, the Lagos-Abuja route has become a major example of systemic inefficiency, with as many as eight airlines scheduling flights simultaneously, while many of the carriers are unable to fill their seat capacities.

He insisted that the model was not competition, but rather amounts to structural inefficiency that drains resources, accelerates financial losses and weakens the entire aviation ecosystem.

To address the challenge, Nwuba canvassed a coordinated framework under the supervision of the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) that would aggregate passenger bookings across airlines within defined time windows and assign operating responsibility based on actual demand.

“One of the most persistent problems is the unnecessary duplication of capacity on major routes. On a typical morning, as many as eight airlines may schedule flights from Lagos to Abuja within the same narrow time band, each departing with low load factors.

“This pattern is not a sign of healthy competition; it is a structural flaw that drains fuel, accelerates losses and weakens the entire industry. As operating costs—especially Jet A1—continue to rise, it has become clear to me that the current model is unsustainable.

“This is why I am proposing a regulator supervised system that allows airlines to pool passengers while maintaining their commercial independence,” he said.

According to him, under the proposed system, airlines would retain their commercial independence by continuing to sell tickets, market their brands and manage customer relationships, while operational decisions on which carrier flies a particular route and schedule would be centrally coordinated to avoid duplication.

He clarified that a passenger who purchases a ticket from an airline could be flown by another, without losing loyalty benefits or customer protection, a model, he argued, mirrors global practices such as code-sharing and interline agreements.

He suggested multiple options for allocating flight operations within the pooled system, including a rotational model among airlines, a demand-based system where the carrier with the highest bookings operates the flight and an auction mechanism allowing airlines to bid for operating rights, with compensation frameworks for non-operating carriers.

Nwuba stressed that the proposal was intended strictly as a crisis-response mechanism, not a permanent restructuring of the market.

He insisted that no airline could survive flying a 100-seat aircraft with two passengers onboard, warning that with the current situation, continuing this pattern would lead to insolvency.

Nwuba noted that similar coordination models had been deployed in other markets during periods of disruption.
He mentioned capacity consolidation among European carriers during downturns and structured route allocation systems in the United States to push his narrative.

Nwuba opined the need for strict regulatory safeguards, including transparent data-sharing protocols, a neutral technology platform for flight allocation and clearly defined consumer rights protections.

He added that participation could be structured as either voluntary or mandatory, depending on industry consensus, but emphasised that the overriding goal was to stabilise the sector during a period of acute financial strain.

He added, “With proper oversight, this model will not distort the market. It will correct inefficiencies that are currently threatening the survival of multiple carriers.”