The emerging coalition of opposition heavyweights on the African Democratic Congress (ADC) bears a striking resemblance to the alliance that produced the All Progressives Congress (APC) under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. However, its lack of a unifying figure without immediate presidential ambition may undermine its prospects ahead of 2027, LEO SOBECHI reports.

All eyes are on the man behind the wheel of the coalition African Democratic Congress (ADC), former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. The Turaki of Adamawa is President Tinubu’s longstanding political ally, dating back to the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) during the short-lived Third Republic. His (Atiku’s) role in founding the ADC coalition has revived echoes of the APC experience.

So, would Atiku be prepared to play the role of a technical adviser, or choose instead to lead from the front as captain? The recent ADC national convention gives the impression that if Atiku remains aloof and offers technical and strategic support by rallying around a ‘viable’ presidential contender, the ADC may replicate the APC’s 2015 feat.

To a large extent, the combination of these factors explains the Tinubu-led APC’s growing anxiety about a countervailing mega political structure. At a time when the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Ezenwo Nyesom Wike, effectively positioned himself as a rebel leader within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Julius Abure appeared to play a disruptive role in the Labour Party (LP), the ruling APC had grown comfortable with the assumption that 2027 would likely be a walkover.

Indeed, everything seemed to be working in favour of the APC’s anticipated no-contest in 2027, as it prepares to defend its position in the presidential race and general election.

However, an unanticipated cog emerged: Atiku neither lowered his guard nor retreated from active partisan politics. He refused to allow the outcome of the 2023 election to cow or dissuade him from seeking alternative pathways, particularly away from the Wike-led insurgency within the PDP.

Recall that Atiku’s desire to contest the 2007 presidential election aligned with Tinubu’s ambition to expand his political reach beyond the South-West, especially amid the leadership crisis that engulfed the Alliance for Democracy (AD) in 2003. Recognising Atiku’s need for a viable platform to challenge his estranged principal, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, Tinubu offered his Action Congress.

To give the platform a national appeal befitting a presidential contest, Atiku and his allies proposed renaming the Action Congress as the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). In this way, the ‘AC’ acronym, which Tinubu had deployed to evoke the legacy of the Action Group (AG) during his second-term bid, was broadened into a nationwide political movement by including ‘Nigeria’.

After his unsuccessful 2007 presidential bid, Atiku, perhaps recognising the difficulty of marketing the South-West-leaning ACN nationwide, returned to the PDP, the platform on which he had first attained national prominence.

With his sights set on the PDP’s presidential ticket ahead of the 2011 election, following the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, the former Vice President worked behind the scenes to promote a consensus approach for selecting a northern candidate to challenge President Goodluck Jonathan, who was completing Yar’Adua’s tenure.

Expectedly, the Adamu Ciroma-led Consensus Committee, after consulting northern aspirants, including retired Generals Ibrahim Babangida and Aliyu Gusau, as well as Bukola Saraki and Atiku, concluded that the former Vice President possessed the strongest national appeal and financial capacity to secure the party’s ticket.

However, shortly after the committee announced its decision, several northern groups criticised its process, arguing that the five-month exercise failed to rigorously assess the morality and integrity of the aspirants.

Specifically, the then President of the Arewa Youth Consultative Forum (AYCF), Yerima Shettima, argued that Atiku’s emergence did not reflect northern consensus, insisting that he lacked widespread regional acceptance.

Ultimately, after a tense PDP Special Convention and presidential primary, during which the party’s national chairman was asked to step aside over allegations of bias, former President Jonathan emerged as the party’s flagbearer.

Stung by defeat but determined to sustain his presidential ambition, Atiku later joined five members of the G7 group of outgoing governors—Murtala Nyako (Adamawa), Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara), Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers), and Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), in defecting en masse from the PDP during its 2013 midterm convention.

Although their attempt to form the “New PDP” (nPDP) was thwarted by a court ruling that dismissed claims of factionalisation, the group subsequently merged into the then-emerging All Progressives Congress (APC).

The election of Bukola Saraki as Senate President and Yakubu Dogara as Speaker of the House of Representatives during the Eighth National Assembly remained one of the few tangible gains secured by the nPDP bloc within the APC arrangement.

However, after losing the APC presidential ticket in 2014, Atiku appeared to recognise the shifting dynamics within the party, particularly as Muhammadu Buhari, backed strongly by Tinubu, positioned himself for a second term, contrary to earlier speculation that he would serve only one term.

Having absorbed lessons from the APC’s transformation from a fragmented opposition into a formidable force capable of unseating an incumbent government, Atiku once again returned to the PDP. Yet, after two further presidential defeats in 2019 and 2023, he began to reflect more deeply on the Tinubu/APC model of political engineering.

Shortly after the Supreme Court delivered its final verdict on the 2023 presidential election petitions, Atiku renewed calls for opposition unity, urging political actors to coalesce around a single platform.

Addressing a world press conference to announce the end of his legal challenge to the February 28, 2023, election, he called on patriots to unite to rescue Nigeria from what he described as creeping impunity and the erosion of the rule of law. He also invited Labour Party’s Peter Obi and New Nigeria Peoples Party’s Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso to join him in a broader effort at democratic renewal.

Playing the Tinubu/APC card
On July 2, 2025, when the new leadership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) was unveiled, it became evident that the opposition was awakening to the need for a coordinated challenge to the ruling party.

Although he remained publicly understated, Atiku quietly positioned himself at the centre of this emerging political realignment, much like Tinubu did in the formative years of the APC.

The familiar template was evident: assemble key political actors, craft compelling messaging, mobilise public sentiment, and articulate a broad national agenda.

Aware of Tinubu’s reputation for hard-nosed political combat, Atiku and the ADC leadership kept both the ruling party and the Presidency guessing. While Obi and Kwankwaso initially projected readiness to contest on their respective platforms, developments within the ADC suggested a broader strategy was unfolding.

With a national leadership structure anchored by former Senate President David Mark, former Osun State governor Rauf Aregbesola, once a key Tinubu ally, and Atiku himself, the ADC began to project organisational seriousness.

Kwankwaso’s eventual entry into the ADC further clarified the party’s potential 2027 configuration. Echoing earlier alliance attempts, such as the ACN-CPC collaboration ahead of 2011, there are growing indications that efforts to unite Kwankwaso and Obi, which faltered in 2023, may now be gaining traction.

Uncertainty persists over Atiku’s ultimate strategy, but there is cautious optimism that a fusion of Obi’s Obidient Movement and Kwankwaso’s Kwankwasiyya base could pose a significant challenge to the Tinubu-led APC in the January 18 presidential election.

Communicative convention
Against the backdrop of a potentially formidable opposition, the recent ADC national convention conveyed strong symbolic and strategic messages.

The joint appearance of Obi and Kwankwaso, and the enthusiastic reception they received, signal possible alignment within the party.

In his address, ADC national chairman David Mark combined caution with defiance. While urging the ruling party to allow democratic space, he also warned against attempts to undermine the opposition, declaring: “We cannot bow, cow, or be intimidated.”

Similarly, Aregbesola criticised the Tinubu administration’s governance record, describing its “Renewed Hope Agenda” as unrealistic, and accusing the ruling party of attempting to stifle dissent out of fear of electoral rejection.

Former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, also weighed in, arguing that the ADC could defeat the incumbent if it presented a credible, broadly acceptable presidential candidate. He cautioned against ethnic and religious considerations, stressing the need for merit-based selection.

Recalling the APC’s formative years, Amaechi noted: “When we joined APC, we searched for a viable candidate, and we succeeded,” warning that identity politics could undermine coalition-building efforts.

Responding indirectly, Atiku indicated that the 2027 election would likely be his final presidential bid. However, younger voices within the ADC continue to urge him to adopt a kingmaker role, like Tinubu’s pre-2015 strategy, by backing a consensus candidate.

Meanwhile, some northern stakeholders argue that presenting a northern Muslim candidate against Tinubu could strategically position the region for a northern Christian presidency in 2031.