A political advocacy group, Nasarawa Concerned Democrats, has warned that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) risks losing its grip on Nasarawa State ahead of the 2027 general elections if it fields Senator Ahmed Aliyu Wadada as its gubernatorial candidate.

In a statement signed by its chairman, Ibrahim Bature Maiturare, the group argued that the alleged preference for Wadada by Sule could trigger internal divisions capable of collapsing the party’s longstanding electoral dominance in the state.

The group contended that the move, reportedly backed by the governor and imposed on political appointees, fails to address deep-rooted grassroots fractures, zoning sensitivities and growing voter fatigue, which it said now define the state’s political landscape.

According to the statement, early signals from the endorsement have already alienated key blocs within APC, energised opposition parties and heightened risk of the party losing both the governorship and significant presidential votes in 2027.

It noted that APC had historically maintained control of Nasarawa through a delicate balance of zoning , elite consensus and performance-based legitimacy, but warned that cracks in that formula became evident during 2023 elections.

“The margins of victory are no longer comfortable, while opposition parties have made significant inroads across key zones,” the group stated, adding that the emergence of Wadada introduces a “destabilising variable” that could worsen the situation.

The group further argued that political expectations in the Nasarawa West zone, particularly demands for rotational equity, unity among major political actors and technocratic competence, could be undermined by Wadada’s candidacy.

It claimed that Wadada’s political trajectory across multiple parties had created trust deficits among core APC members, who allegedly view him as lacking ideological consistency and grassroots cohesion.

The statement also highlighted perceived weaknesses in Wadada’s support base in strategic areas such as Keffi, Toto, Nasarawa and Karu, where other aspirants were said to have deeper local connections and stronger acceptance among voters.

While acknowledging the achievements of Governor Sule’s administration in fiscal transparency, infrastructure development and investment drive, the group warned that such gains could be reversed if political stability is compromised by a divisive candidate selection process.

It cited improvements in internally generated revenue, pension clearance, implementation of the minimum wage and participation in global transparency initiatives as key milestones that have shaped public perception of governance in the state.

Projecting possible electoral outcomes, the group predicted protest votes in APC strongholds, voter apathy in other zones and increased defection among youths and middle-class voters seeking alternative leadership platforms.

The group insisted that unless the APC adopts a more inclusive and transparent candidate selection process, the party risks not only losing the governorship in Nasarawa State but also weakening its overall electoral performance in 2027, describing the potential outcome as a consequence of “a single strategic miscalculation.”