The estimation that Nigeria’s oil resources may last for 59 years, while gas could sustain production for up to 85 years based on current output levels, should shock the country to wake up to reality. It is a stark reminder that oil, as valuable as it is, is after all a wasting asset. Its value, in fact, is predicated on investment made from its sale, and the use to which the returns are put.

For decades, Nigeria has leaned on the illusion of its status as an energy giant. Simply put, the country has treated its crude oil and natural gas reserves as an inexhaustible inheritance, a perennial cash cow that would never flash an “Insufficient Funds” warning. However, recent data suggests a sobering reality: the oil reserves have stalled. At current production levels, Nigeria’s oil and gas are projected to last roughly 85 years. While nearly a century sounds like a lifetime, in the world of sovereign economics and infrastructure development, it is a heartbeat away.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), which made the 85-year projection, disclosed that in 2017, the country’s crude oil reserves stood at 37.453 billion barrels, and the Federal Government had already missed two targets to increase them to 40 billion barrels. A target was set for 2020, but it remained unrealistic until 2025 was set.

The commission said the oil and gas reserves recorded marginal growth, stating that as of January 1, 2026, the nation’s total proven (2P) crude oil and condensate reserves stood at 37.01 billion barrels. This comprises 31.09 billion barrels of crude oil and 5.92 billion barrels of condensate.

According to the body, Gas reserves, however, showed a modest increase, with associated gas estimated at 100.21 trillion cubic feet (TCF) and non-associated gas at 114.98 TCF, bringing total gas reserves to 215.19 TCF.

NUPRC Chief Executive, Mrs Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said the reserves’ life index indicated that Nigeria’s oil resources may last for 59 years, while gas could sustain production for up to 85 years, based on current output levels.

Despite these figures, the data highlighted stagnation in oil reserves growth, with a slight decline of 0.74 per cent recorded in 2025. The commission attributed this to ongoing production activities and routine technical evaluations of existing fields.

In contrast, gas reserves grew by 2.21 per cent, driven largely by discoveries and improved reservoir studies, underscoring Nigeria’s increasing strategic focus on gas as a transition fuel. The commission reiterated its commitment to enhancing upstream performance through the full implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 and its broader strategic objectives to boost reserves and ensure stable production.

Indeed, the stagnation of Nigeria’s reserves is not merely a statistical hiccup; it is a loud, ringing alarm for a nation that has failed to diversify, failed to innovate, and failed to secure its tomorrow while feasting on its today. The mathematics of extraction are cold and unforgiving. If the country continues to pump without significant discoveries, the “possibility” of the reserves finishing becomes a certainty. An 85-year window is a countdown. Every barrel exported is a barrel less in the national savings account.

The tragedy is not just that the oil will run out, but that the country is not discovering new sites. Exploration has hit a proverbial brick wall. International Oil Companies (IOCs) are divesting from onshore assets, deterred by insecurity, industrial-scale theft, and a global shift toward renewables. Without aggressive investment in seismic surveys and deep-water exploration, the country is essentially living off the scraps of 20th-century discoveries.

Nigeria’s current precariousness took root from the immediate past, during the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari, when Nigeria witnessed periods of significant revenue despite global fluctuations. Yet, the paradox of the “Buhari Boom” was that the more the country made, the more it borrowed, as over $10 billion yearly was swallowed by the petrol subsidy toward the end of the last administration. There is suspicion that the borrowing situation may be worse now under the Tinubu Regime, where oil prices continued to skyrocket owing largely to Middle East tensions and disruptions to oil exploration.

While the country spent on consumption, it starved production. How much has been invested? Certainly, nowhere near enough. To maintain and grow production, Nigeria requires a yearly investment of approximately $20 billion to $25 billion. Instead, there has been a flight of capital.

Perhaps the most egregious failure is the environmental and economic crime of gas flaring. Despite numerous deadlines and “Gas Master Plans,” flaring continues unabated in the Niger Delta. Nigeria is literally setting money on fire.

The country loses billions of dollars in potential revenue every year to flared gas. Beyond the economic loss, the health impacts on host communities are devastating. While the world transitions to gas as a bridge fuel, this country treats it as a waste product of oil extraction.

From all indications, Nigeria is not preparing for the future. True preparation involves “decoupling” the national budget from the price of a Brent barrel. It means investing in the Sovereign Wealth Fund with the discipline of a nation that knows its primary resource is finite. It means using “Excess Crude Account” not to settle political exigencies, but to invest in critical infrastructure and create employment opportunities.

The administration of President Bola Tinubu inherited a struggling energy sector. There have been flashes of boldness—most notably the immediate removal of the fuel subsidy and the push for the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) implementation. Tinubu has signed executive orders aimed at reducing contracting cycles and providing tax incentives for non-associated gas (NAG) projects. This is a step toward fixing the stalled nature of our reserves.

The administration’s emphasis on “Decade of Gas” and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) for transportation shows a technical understanding of the transition. However, hope is not a strategy. For Tinubu to succeed where others failed, he must tackle the “Security-Industrial Complex” in the Niger Delta that enables oil theft. He must also convince a sceptical world that Nigeria is a stable, transparent destination for long-term energy capital.

The 85-year lifespan of Nigeria’s reserves should not be viewed as a safety net, but as a deadline for transformation. If Nigeria does not find more oil, and more importantly, if it does not find a way to live without needing to find more oil, the Nigerian project faces an existential threat.

The country cannot afford another decade of gas flaring, administrative lethargy, and the systemic looting of oil revenues. The era of “easy oil” is over. Whether the country uses the remaining decades to build a modern, diversified industrial power or simply waits for the wells to run dry is the defining question of the present generation.

President Tinubu has the map; he needs the political will to lead the country out of the desert. The 85 years have started counting!