Cowry Asset Management Limited has projected Nigeria’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at between 3.98 per cent and 4.03 per cent in the second quarter, citing the resilience of key sectors of the economy as support.

The investment firm stated that economic activities are expected to remain moderately strong, supported by continued growth in telecommunications, financial services, agriculturr, transportation, water supply and selected manufacturing segments.

However, it warned that rising energy costs, global economic uncertainty, insecurity and weak infrastructure investment remain major risks to economic growth.

The projection comes as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.89 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter, higher than 3.13 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.

According to Cowry Asset Management, the first-quarter performance underscored the resilience of the domestic economy despite global uncertainties and lingering structural constraints.

The firm noted that growth during the period was largely driven by sustained expansion in major non-oil sectors, including telecommunications, agriculture, trade, manufacturing, financial services, construction, real estate and transportation.

A breakdown of the GDP report showed that the agricultural sector grew by 3.15 per cent in real terms, compared with 0.07 per cent in the first quarter of 2025. The improvement was attributed to stronger crop production activities and relative stability in the food supply chain.

Similarly, the industrial sector recorded a growth rate of 3.5 per cent, slightly higher than the 3.42 per cent achieved in the corresponding period of last year, supported by improved manufacturing and construction activities.

The services sector maintained its position as the largest contributor to economic growth, expanding by 4.31 per cent, although marginally lower than the 4.33 per cent recorded a year earlier.

Analysts at Cowry noted that the non-oil sector remained the major driver of economic expansion, growing by 3.94 per cent in the first quarter and contributing 96.08 per cent of total real GDP.

According to the firm, the performance highlighted the increasing role of domestic non-oil activities in driving economic growth, with telecommunications, crop production, trade, cement manufacturing, financial institutions, construction, real estate and road transportation emerging as key contributors.

The report also linked the sector’s performance to improved business activity, relative stability in exchange rates, and the gradual impact of ongoing economic reforms.

Within the mining and quarrying sector, growth slowed to 1.89 per cent year-on-year, although the sector’s contribution to GDP rose to 4.14 per cent from 3.16 per cent in the preceding quarter.

The oil sector grew by 2.57 per cent, higher than the 1.87 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2025 but below the 6.79 per cent achieved in the fourth quarter of 2025. Average crude oil production stood at 1.55 million barrels per day, reflecting continued production challenges within the upstream segment.