Africa can transform rising geopolitical tensions and global supply chain disruptions into long-term economic growth if governments accelerate trade integration, industrialisation and investment in critical infrastructure, the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has said.

In its 2026 African Trade Report titled Leveraging Geopolitics for Trade and Industrialisation in Global Africa, the bank noted that the continent remained resilient despite growing global economic uncertainty and trade fragmentation.

The report showed that while global economic growth slowed to 3.4 per cent in 2025 and is projected to ease further to 3.1 per cent in 2026, Africa’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth improved from 3.4 per cent in 2024 to 4.5 per cent in 2025, outperforming the global average.

Africa’s merchandise trade also recorded strong growth, rising by 6.1 per cent to about $1.5 trillion in 2025, while inflation across the continent declined significantly from 21.6 per cent in 2024 to 13.1 per cent in 2025.

Afreximbank attributed the improvement to sound macroeconomic management, policy reforms, institutional strengthening and support from development finance institutions.

The report, however, warned that Africa’s export potential continues to be constrained by a trade finance gap estimated at $74 billion in 2025, alongside foreign exchange shortages and a decline in correspondent banking relationships.

It noted that disruptions to global shipping routes and logistics networks were increasing freight costs and delivery times, placing additional pressure on African economies that remain dependent on imported inputs and external markets.

According to the report, accelerating the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), expanding the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) and reforming the global financial architecture are critical to strengthening the continent’s economic resilience.

The report also highlighted the growing role of African financial institutions in supporting trade and industrial development. Afreximbank disbursed $17.5 billion in 2024 and is working towards doubling intra-African trade finance by 2026, while PAPSS is helping to lower transaction costs and reduce dependence on foreign currencies.

Group Chief Economist and Managing Director of Research and Trade Intelligence at Afreximbank, Dr Yemi Kale, said Africa must take advantage of shifting global trade patterns by strengthening regional value chains, expanding industrial capacity and improving access to trade finance.

He stressed that coordinated policy actions, strategic infrastructure investments and stronger development finance institutions would be crucial in building a more resilient, inclusive and value-added trade ecosystem across the continent.