Lately, Kano State politics has come to reflect the quiet antagonism between the youthful enthusiasm of the Kwankwasiyya Movement, headed by Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and the incumbency of Governor Kabir Abba Yusuf. This rivalry, as well as the convergence of former and current Kwankwasiyya members in the NDC, is shaping the buildup to next year’s state election, LEO SOBECHI reports.

Those were not mere coincidences. Two recent political developments in the ancient commercial state of Kano underscored the extent to which the former presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and his vibrant political movement, Kwankwasiyya, are influencing the buildup to next year’s general election.

The first was the controversy surrounding the implementation of a sharing formula within the emerging Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), which reportedly allocated positions on a 60-40 basis between Kwankwaso’s allies and the original party members who welcomed the former ADC members into the NDC.

The second was the muted outcry from some stakeholders over the nomination of Mustapha Kwankwaso, the immediate past Commissioner for Youth and Sports Development and the eldest son of the NDC’s vice-presidential candidate, as the party’s deputy governorship candidate.

There was little doubt that the uproar over the younger Kwankwaso’s nomination as the running mate to Aminu Abdulsalam Gwarzo on the NDC platform was encouraged by elements within the state’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

Among those who amplified the issue were former allies of Kwankwaso who had previously applauded Mustapha’s appointment as Commissioner for Youth and Sports Development in Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf’s administration.

Perhaps the attempt to portray Mustapha’s emergence as an act of nepotism failed to gain traction because Governor Yusuf, who appointed him commissioner, is married to Senator Kwankwaso’s daughter. Consequently, many observers saw little difference between his appointment as commissioner and his nomination as deputy governorship candidate.

Even then, some NDC insiders who attempted to portray Gwarzo’s choice of running mate as a political miscalculation appeared to underestimate the reach and spread of the Kwankwasiyya Movement across the state. When Mustapha resigned from the Yusuf administration in January, many viewed the decision as a demonstration of loyalty to the youth-driven ideals of the Kwankwasiyya Movement rather than evidence of a complete political rupture between Governor Yusuf and Kwankwaso.

Kano and Kwankwasiyya influence
Lagos, Delta, and Enugu States provide useful examples for understanding the political dynamics shaping Kano politics and its current Kwankwasiyya orientation.

At the dawn of the Fourth Republic, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu emerged from the PRIMROSE tendency of the Lagos chapter of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) to become governor. Although the Alliance for Democracy (AD), on whose platform he was elected, later fragmented, Tinubu successfully nurtured a loyal political structure around his Jagaban philosophy.

Through the formation of the Action Congress (AC), the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), and ultimately the APC, Tinubu expanded his influence across the South-West and later nationally. This evolution entrenched his dominance in Lagos politics to the extent that few elected or appointed officials could thrive politically outside the Jagaban political family.

Similarly, in Delta and Enugu States, where Tinubu’s contemporaries among the Class of ‘99 governors, James Ibori and Dr Chimaroke Nnamani, held sway, the political traditions of Ogidigbo and Ebeano have continued to shape leadership succession.

From Dr Emmanuel Uduaghan to Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, Ibori’s Ogidigbo political dynasty has produced successive leaders, culminating in the emergence of Governor Sheriff Oborevwori and his MORE Agenda.

In Enugu, despite efforts by former Governor Sullivan Chime and incumbent Governor Peter Mbah to distance themselves from the Ebeano political tradition, Mbah’s “Tomorrow Is Here” mantra reflects the enduring influence of Chimaroke Nnamani’s political structure on the state’s politics.

Kano, however, presents a different model. Despite an eight-year interruption between 2003 and 2011, Kwankwaso, also a member of the Class of ‘99 governors, returned to office in 2011 and consolidated the Kwankwasiyya Movement. Through that platform, he helped produce both Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and Abba Kabir Yusuf as second- and third-generation Kwankwasiyya governors of the state.

Understanding NDC’s current complexities
Following Senator Kwankwaso’s defection from the NNPP, on whose platform he contested the 2023 presidential election, the prevailing belief within Kwankwasiyya circles was that former Deputy Governor Aminu Abdulsalam Gwarzo was positioning himself to challenge Governor Yusuf in the 2027 governorship election.

Governor Yusuf was reportedly uncomfortable with Gwarzo’s unwillingness to rejoin him in returning to the APC, which they had all left with Kwankwaso when he first moved to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and later to the NNPP following his fallout with Ganduje.

Yusuf had contested against Ganduje in the fiercely contested 2019 governorship election, a race many believed was influenced by the weight of federal power under the late President Muhammadu Buhari. As the saying goes, history may not repeat itself, but people often do. Gwarzo’s estrangement from Governor Yusuf appears to follow a familiar pattern.

Before becoming governor, Ganduje had been both a longtime ally and deputy to Kwankwaso. Yet, while Kwankwaso relied on support from Abuja to secure a second term, his attempt to establish a lasting Gandujiya political lineage ultimately faltered in the face of the broader appeal and mobilisation strength of mainstream Kwankwasiyya.

As the 2027 election cycle gathers momentum, the Kwankwasiyya Movement appears divided between its main bloc in the NDC under Kwankwaso and a splinter faction aligned with Governor Yusuf in the APC.

Like Yusuf, Gwarzo had been a longtime ally of Kwankwaso and a committed adherent of the Kwankwasiyya ideology. When he resigned on March 27, 2026, to avoid possible impeachment, the former deputy governor demonstrated both personal loyalty and confidence in the enduring strength of the Kwankwasiyya movement in Kano politics.

Between 2011 and 2015, during Kwankwaso’s second term as governor, Gwarzo served as Commissioner for State Affairs. Before then, the accountant-turned-politician had served as chairman of Gwarzo Local Government Area for seven years, spanning both military rule and Kwankwaso’s first tenure as governor.

Throughout Kwankwaso’s long political journey, including the years he spent outside power during Ibrahim Shekarau’s administration and his movement across the APC, PDP and NNPP, several of his loyalists drifted into different political camps.

For instance, during the first major clash between Kwankwaso and Ganduje, some members of the movement sided with Ganduje, while others aligned with Shekarau’s PDP faction before eventually returning when Kwankwaso became the NNPP presidential candidate.

However, as tensions between Kwankwaso and Governor Yusuf escalated, some emerging political actors sought to avoid taking sides. Many gravitated toward the NDC, believing the new platform offered greater room for independent political expression. Among them were politicians who declined to follow Kwankwaso into the ADC.

Heterogeneous fusion
Against this backdrop, the controversy over the allocation of elective offices within the NDC reflected the challenges of integrating different political tendencies into a single structure.

While original NDC members, many of whom joined the party as an alternative to the crisis-ridden PDP, resisted attempts by the incoming Kwankwasiyya bloc to dominate party structures, Kwankwaso’s supporters countered with arguments grounded in loyalty, experience, and numerical strength.

Although many NDC members in Kano have, at one point or another, been associated with Kwankwaso, the distinctions between old and new members became evident during the selection of the party’s governorship candidate and running mate.

While many NDC members said they expected Nasir Gawuna, who was later compensated with the party’s Kano Central Senatorial ticket, to emerge as the governorship candidate, others argued that the decision to settle for the older and more experienced Gwarzo, who is not from Kano Central Senatorial District, was intended to create room for Mustapha Kwankwaso’s emergence as the deputy governorship candidate.

Nonetheless, Kwankwaso’s media aide, Saifullahi Hassan, defended the ticket as formidable and maintained that the choice of a running mate remained the exclusive prerogative of the governorship candidate.

Allegations of imposition, which partly stemmed from the implementation of the 60-40 sharing formula between original NDC members and new entrants, gained momentum because internal calculations appeared to favour established Kwankwasiyya figures such as Rufa’i Hanga and Baffa Lamin, both from Kano Central Senatorial District.

Adamu Nababa, pioneer Director of Planning, Research and Statistics in the Directorate of Research and Documentation, Office of the Governor of Kano State, told The Guardian that Kwankwaso and the Kwankwasiyya Movement thrive largely on political symbolism, adding that not everyone identifies with such a style of mobilisation.

He argued that Governor Yusuf has focused on practical governance and service delivery without excessive fanfare, whereas the Kwankwasiyya Movement often relies on emotional appeal and mass enthusiasm.

However, many young people who form the core of the movement insist that Kwankwaso’s record, particularly in education and human capital development, justifies their support.

“Anybody can say whatever they like in the name of politics, but we are driven by the developmental ideas of Madugu, Jagoran Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. When he served as governor, he demonstrated a strong commitment to human capital development. What we do in Kwankwasiyya is support a politics built on vision and development,” said Auwal Anka.

If symbolism and political identity helped Kwankwaso produce a third-generation Kwankwasiyya governor in Kano, the movement appears to have more tangible factors to rely on as the battle for the state’s 5,927,565 eligible voters approaches.

How much influence Kwankwaso’s position as the NDC vice-presidential candidate will have on voter behaviour during the January 16 presidential and National Assembly elections, as well as the governorship election, remains to be seen.

Although Kwankwaso outperformed several presidential contenders in Kano during the 2023 election, including President Bola Tinubu, his supporters believe that the prospect of his eventual emergence as president continues to energise the movement and strengthen support for the NDC.

That sense of ambition may explain the enthusiasm displayed by members of the Kwankwasiyya Movement whenever their leader attends political events. As they sing and dance to songs urging Nigerians to give Kwankwaso an opportunity to replicate nationally what he achieved in Kano, many supporters display remarkable excitement and optimism.

Such enthusiasm was evident on Wednesday when Kwankwaso made a brief stop at the NDC secretariat in Bichi Local Government Area after paying a condolence visit to the family of retired General Rabe Abubakar, who reportedly died while in captivity after being abducted by bandits.

The large crowd that thronged the party secretariat and cheered the arrival of the NDC vice-presidential candidate appeared to overshadow reports of internal disquiet over the sharing of elective offices and Mustapha’s nomination as deputy governorship candidate.

Moved by the reception, Kwankwaso later took to his Facebook page to express appreciation. He wrote: “Returning from Katsina tonight, I was overwhelmed by the joyful and energetic reception from the good people of Bichi, Kano State. Thank you for the tremendous love.”

When electioneering begins in mid-August, it will become clearer whether this outpouring of support for Kwankwaso can be sustained in the face of Governor Yusuf’s own considerable political appeal across the state.

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