The Federal Government said Nigeria requires as much as $12 billion, or about $11 billion above the current $1 billion spending, in yearly investment across the electricity value chain to achieve optimal performance.

It revealed that the sector currently attracts only about $1 billion yearly, exposing a financing gap of about $11 billion that continues to constrain efforts to expand power supply and modernise the national grid.

The disclosure was made by the Special Adviser to the President on Power Infrastructure, Sadiq Wanka, in a presentation on Nigeria’s evolving electricity investment landscape at the Asharami Square 3.0 in Lagos, yesterday.

He argued that closing the deficit would require stronger policy implementation, regulatory certainty and a more aggressive drive to attract private capital into the sector.

According to his presentation, Nigeria’s Integrated Resource Plan estimates that between 2025 and 2045, the country needs to spend between $9 billion and $12 billion on generation, transmission and distribution.

With actual investment by industry licensees remaining below $1 billion yearly, the deficit leaves critical infrastructure projects underfunded.

He also highlighted Nigeria’s weak electricity profile compared with other emerging economies, noting that electricity consumption per capita and transmission infrastructure remain significantly below Nigeria’s peers.

It stated that India’s electricity consumption per capita is about 13.7 times higher than Nigeria’s, while its transmission network is roughly nine times larger, underscoring the scale of investment still required to improve electricity access and economic competitiveness.

Despite the challenges, Wanka said recent reforms are creating a stronger investment climate for the sector. He cited the implementation of the Electricity Act 2023, increasing decentralisation of electricity regulation to states, improved market remittances, the transition towards cost-reflective tariffs for Band A customers, restructuring of distribution companies and the unbundling of Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) to strengthen investor confidence.

He identified significant investment opportunities in industrial power supply, transmission infrastructure, hydropower, local equipment manufacturing and distribution network upgrades.

The aide noted that government initiatives, including the proposed Transmission Infrastructure Fund, Presidential Metering Initiative and ongoing rural electrification programmes, are expected to unlock private sector participation.

He maintained that more urgent action is needed, recommending accelerated metering, clearance of historical debts owed to generation and gas companies, operationalisation of financing mechanisms and faster implementation of policies aimed at achieving universal electricity access within the next five to seven years.

Executive Director, Governance and Sustainability, Sahara Group, Ejiro Gray, said Africa’s energy story has largely been told from an external perspective, with insufficient attention paid to the continent’s development priorities, infrastructure constraints and operating realities.

According to her, the continent has often been portrayed as “an emissions problem, an investment risk, a laggard in the energy transition process,” while its lived experiences and the complexities of balancing energy access with decarbonisation receive little attention.

Gray maintained that Africa requires journalism that goes beyond repeating prevailing narratives.

“Africa cannot afford journalism that merely repeats important conclusions. We need journalism that can interrogate the assumptions beneath those conclusions, especially because they are not our assumptions. They are being made on our behalf,” she said.