•Says workers are left with N7,261 after food

Nigeria’s N70,000 minimum wage is losing much of its purchasing power in the face of rising food costs, with workers in the country’s most expensive states left with as little as N7,261 a month after meeting the minimum cost of a healthy diet, a new BudgIT report has said.

The report, ‘The Price of Survival: Nigeria’s Cost of a Healthy Diet Tracker, Q1 2026,’ showed that although the cost of a healthy diet remains technically below the minimum wage in all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), the margin available to workers for other basic expenses has become dangerously thin.

In Ekiti, where food was most expensive in March, an estimated N62,739 of the N70,000 monthly wage was required to feed an adult adequately, leaving only about N7,261 for transportation, housing, electricity, healthcare and other expenses.

The report said the finding exposed the weakness of judging wage adequacy simply by whether monthly income exceeds the cost of food, arguing that the more meaningful measure for policymakers and labour negotiators is what remains after food expenditure.

The insights come a few months ahead of the 2027 review of the national minimum wage, which was last adjusted in 2023.

The report found that the national cost of a healthy diet increased 5.8 per cent from N1,458 per person per day in January to N1,541 in March, following a 6.4 per cent decline in the previous quarter. More significantly, the national average jumped 11.7 per cent between December 2025 and March 2026, indicating a sharp reversal from the seasonal decline recorded at the end of last year.

For businesses and households, the pressure is being transmitted unevenly across the economy. While the national increase slowed from 3.8 per cent between January and February to 1.9 per cent between February and March, the state-level figures showed much sharper movements, with Taraba recording a 49.3 per cent increase during the quarter.

Gombe, Yobe, Cross River, Kano and Ogun states followed with increases of 34.1, 29.9, 28.1, 27 and 26.7 per cent respectively.

BudgIT said the geographical spread of the increases suggested that local market disruptions, transport pressures, planting-season effects and supply constraints could be contributing to the divergent outcomes.

The cost pressure is also concentrated in components of the household consumption basket. Animal-source foods recorded the largest increase, rising 14.67 per cent from N528 to N606 per person per day during the quarter. The category includes eggs, crayfish, fresh milk, dried shrimp and local cheese.

By March, animal-source foods accounted for nearly 40 per cent of the daily cost of a healthy diet, despite contributing only 13 per cent of its calories.

The disparity across states means the impact on household purchasing power varies significantly. After Ekiti, Imo recorded a daily healthy-diet cost of N2,052, Abia N1,970 and Lagos N1,910 in March. Their estimated monthly food costs represented 87.9 per cent, 84.4 per cent and 81.9 per cent of the N70,000 minimum wage, respectively.

The report also found that the long-standing North-South affordability gap remains, with eight of the 10 cheapest states located in the North and all 10 most expensive states in the South. However, the North West is rapidly losing its cost advantage, recording a 17.5 per cent increase in the cost of a healthy diet in Q1, the fastest rise among the six zones.

BudgIT also identified an unusual reversal in the relationship between urban and rural food costs. In eight states, all located in the North Central and North West, rural food was more expensive than urban food. The report linked the pattern partly to disruptions in agricultural activity and supply chains, which have increased dependence on markets in affected areas.

Against this backdrop, BudgIT called for a rethink of how food affordability and wage adequacy are measured in Nigeria.

It urged the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) to publish food-basket cost breakdowns alongside state and zonal averages, arguing that policymakers need to know whether price increases are being driven by protein, staples or other categories before designing interventions.

The organisation also called on governments in Taraba, Gombe, Yobe, Cross River, Kano and Ogun to explain the factors driving food costs in their states and publish quarterly reports on local market conditions, price drivers and intervention plans.

It further recommended that policymakers shift the minimum wage debate from whether workers can technically afford food to the amount left after food expenditure.